Almanac predicts rough winter for Missouri (Columbia, Pacific: power lines, farmers, transit)

[SW Missouri Dave]

Missourians should brace for a winter sure to bring more cold and snow than usual, according to the 2011 edition of the Farmers' Almanac.

The coming winter is forecast to bring extreme storms. Sandi Duncan, managing editor of the Farmers' Almanac, said that Missouri will suffer a lot of cold.

read the rest of the article here -
UPDATE: Almanac predicts rough winter for Missouri - Columbia Missourian

I sure hope they are wrong!! Neither Farmer's Almanac nor the NWS Climate Prediction Center address the building La Nina pattern in the Pacific. ENSO Wrap-Up

[christina0001]

I hope they are wrong, too!

[lifelongMOgal]

Last winter had more than enough snow for cattle and trying to get hay to them. Better lay in more wood for the fireplace.

[latetotheparty]

oh yaaaayy.... can NOT wait......

[SW Missouri Dave]

Never gave this type of science much thought but I read early in the spring (from a report in Australia) that the shifting period from El Nino to La Nina usual means an unusually hot streak for the mid section of the US. They sure pegged that part right.

I can't for the life of me find that article to see if it addressed how the transition period typically affects mid US winters. The graph I posted above shows La Nina as warmer and wetter than usual for Missouri. I can handle the warmer part, as long as its above freezing when the wetter part arrives.

Snow I enjoy, ice is best found in a glass of tea and not on the roads or power lines.

A winter like today - now that would be just perfect-o! Sunny and 72 degrees. And a grand weekend of weather in the forecast.

[SW Missouri Dave]

Interesting read - but can we agree that weather prediction is a science that has yet to be perfected

My Winter 2010-2011 Outlook - Talkweather Forums

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/cl...ges/jfm.tl.gif

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/cl...ges/jfm.pl.gif

This is the one I like http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...tp/ondp1cp.gif
Based on this analysis of of La Nina Precipitation Probabilities since 1933 - there is a 34.44% chance of higher than normal precip, 36.4% it will be lower precip, and 29.3% chance of normal. In other words, your odds of flipping heads with a coin twice in a row are better than your odds of predicting the weather correctly this winter

Warmer than normal odds are little better http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...tp/ondt1cp.gif

Personally, I am hoping for warmer than usual, guessing stormier than normal, praying for no ice storms, betting on no White Christmas, but generally, have absolutely no clue. Will take it as it comes and appreciate the fact that I am still breathing to experience it. And that's a prediction I hope works out.

[GraniteStater]

No, the ALMANAC IS ALWAYS WRONG.
La Nina events tend to be highly variable with extremes in precip and temperature with regard to normal. I am hoping the winter is as cold as possible to get rid of nasty pests and invasives.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by SW Missouri Dave

Never gave this type of science much thought but I read early in the spring (from a report in Australia) that the shifting period from El Nino to La Nina usual means an unusually hot streak for the mid section of the US. They sure pegged that part right.

I can't for the life of me find that article to see if it addressed how the transition period typically affects mid US winters. The graph I posted above shows La Nina as warmer and wetter than usual for Missouri. I can handle the warmer part, as long as its above freezing when the wetter part arrives.

Snow I enjoy, ice is best found in a glass of tea and not on the roads or power lines.

A winter like today - now that would be just perfect-o! Sunny and 72 degrees. And a grand weekend of weather in the forecast.

La Nina event of 88-89 featured extreme temperature fluctuations and produced many subzero lows in MO. That event was moderate strength just like the current event. Or, it could be like the 99-00 event where temps were warm everywhere. There is no telling how this event will play out because the exact placement of the cold anomalies indirectly influences where the jet stream actually sets up.

[Cali BassMan]

Originally Posted by SW Missouri Dave

A winter like today - now that would be just perfect-o! Sunny and 72 degrees. And a grand weekend of weather in the forecast.

Hey Buddy I know right where you can find that weather...Hope you speak some spanish, and don't mind crowds, 42 Million are here now...

[misplaced1]

No thanks on the extra cold, still trying to get the heating situation and winterization worked through.