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McGregor at -400 and Amanda Nunes at -115 feel like easy money, even if you're only getting $25 for every $100 you put on McGregor.
I'm torn on Holm (-300)/Tate(+235). It's not going to be close, but which direction it goes is going to be almost completely dependent on whether or not Tate tries to fight like Rousey did or not.
id bet on holy before id bet on mcgregor.
nate is no joke, and going to be much larger. nate just dominated a much larger, stronger and more athletic johnson.
hes not going to be nearly as easy to beat as those odds are saying.
id bet on holy before id bet on mcgregor.
nate is no joke, and going to be much larger. nate just dominated a much larger, stronger and more athletic johnson.
hes not going to be nearly as easy to beat as those odds are saying.
Don't get me wrong, I think Nunes is a better bet than McGregor, but I take him at -400 easy, even -500. Diaz even sounds like he already thinks he's going to lose in interviews:
I know it's just media, but it speaks a little about his mindset going into the fight. I just don't think his takedown is good enough to get/keep McGregor on the ground, and he's not disciplined enough to leverage his reach advantage standing up.
Between that, and short notice....I just don't see it.
nate always sounds like that. his 2 media speeches are "im gonna kick his ass, or well it could go either way but i dont care"
thats nate diaz 101.
the short notice is the biggest factor imo. but considering hes only a couple of months out of his last fight hes not going to be terribly out of shape.
nate always sounds like that. his 2 media speeches are "im gonna kick his ass, or well it could go either way but i dont care"
Exactly. And this time he leaned towards the second.
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Originally Posted by rigas
the short notice is the biggest factor imo. but considering hes only a couple of months out of his last fight hes not going to be terribly out of shape.
I'd agree, the short notice doesn't help. But it's not just his physical condition, it's preparation for that particular opponent...which (having never been of a fighter of a caliber high enough to have opponents whose tapes I could review) I couldn't comment on with much authority.
I'm curious: Do you actually feel that Diaz is going to win, or simply that the odds aren't good enough to bet on McGregor (I'm guessing the latter....in which case, what's the worst odds you'd feel comfortable with?)
well i dont bet on fights, only gambling i do is on a poker or black jack table.
the diaz brothers dont really train specific for an opponent so much as they just train their game. so while they are watching tape, i doubt they would change much to their game plan.
honestly i am 50-50 on this fight. ive never been a conner guy, i have never been a diaz fan either but i respect them both. i think nate is under rated, i think conner is a bit over rated. nate has far far superior ground game while conner obviously has the advantage in the stand up.
i think conners power in his punches will be greater at this size BUT hes not really fought bigger guys, always knocking out smaller guys then himself. nate is going to be noticeably bigger. nate is very durable, and i dont see conner smashing him like wonderboy did (nates only tko/ko loss in his career)
i see it going decision and i see nate losing it based on the judges just dont like the diaz brothers but everyone loves conner.
well i dont bet on fights, only gambling i do is on a poker or black jack table.
You don't really need to, it's also kind of an "estimate of winning chances". If you felt it was a 50-50, then the right odds would be -110 or even. Just throwing that out there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rigas
the diaz brothers dont really train specific for an opponent so much as they just train their game. so while they are watching tape, i doubt they would change much to their game plan.
Me either, which is something I don't care for in their style.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rigas
i think nate is under rated
I don't, I think he's just about right. Just an opinion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rigas
i think conner is a bit over rated. nate has far far superior ground game while conner obviously has the advantage in the stand up.
I agree with all of this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rigas
i think conners power in his punches will be greater at this size BUT hes not really fought bigger guys, always knocking out smaller guys then himself. nate is going to be noticeably bigger. nate is very durable, and i dont see conner smashing him like wonderboy did (nates only tko/ko loss in his career)
i see it going decision and i see nate losing it based on the judges just dont like the diaz brothers but everyone loves conner.
Hmm. I guess I really, really don't see it going to decision. Both of them are too straightforward-aggressive in their style to let that happen. If you really think it will, there's some SERIOUS money to be made there (+480 it goes to decision, +750 McGregor wins by decision, +1260 Diaz wins by decision!). That's how I made my money on the Holm fight...Holm by KO
Side note: Holy crap, apparently the betting opened at McGregor -160. WOW.
As it happens, the only money I'm actually putting down is on Nunes to win, but I'm tempted to reconsider the McGregor/Diaz decision odds, as good as they are.
The other prop bets are lol ("fighters do not touch gloves before fight" @ -300)
heres the thing about people like the diaz brothers. they dont train for their opponent, which is why they have stayed relevant (besides their mouth) true champions, winners and people who have longevity dont EVER train for their opponent, they only look for holes in their own game, and they train to fill those holes. conner himself said when diaz was picked to fight, that he didnt care, he doesnt train to beat anyone, he trains to beat himself thus being able to beat everyone. a little cocky, sure, but leads to my point of view. the best dont say "oh crap im fighting XXXXX they like to XXX i better practice XX" the best say "i am great at XXX but only so so at YYY i better fix YYY until its as good as XXX"
its exactly why someone like TATE will never be champion in the ufc. her entire goal is to find weakness in her opponent and over looks the holes and weakness in herself.
heres the thing about people like the diaz brothers. they dont train for their opponent, which is why they have stayed relevant (besides their mouth) true champions, winners and people who have longevity dont EVER train for their opponent, they only look for holes in their own game, and they train to fill those holes. conner himself said when diaz was picked to fight, that he didnt care, he doesnt train to beat anyone, he trains to beat himself thus being able to beat everyone. a little cocky, sure, but leads to my point of view. the best dont say "oh crap im fighting XXXXX they like to XXX i better practice XX" the best say "i am great at XXX but only so so at YYY i better fix YYY until its as good as XXX"
its exactly why someone like TATE will never be champion in the ufc. her entire goal is to find weakness in her opponent and over looks the holes and weakness in herself.
The two things that are underlined are not mutually exclusive. You can do one as well as the other.
Re: Tate. She strikes me as absolutely the kind of fighter that DOESN'T train for a particular opponent (regardless of what she says). Consider every fight she's had against Rousey. She knows, with 100% certainty, that Rousey will attempt to grapple her, and that Rousey's grappling is superior to her own. So what does she do? Grapples with her. Because she considers that to be her own strength as well and doesn't factor in Rousey's strength at all.
A good example of why the best should absolutely factor in the strengths of their opponent, and how it relates to their own weaknesses.
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