Mobile Bay Area: Random Thoughts (Birmingham, Montgomery: luxury, school, statistics)

[Surge0001]

Originally Posted by AU HSV

Careful :Mobile might be added to Baldwin County , just kidding. Your designation doesn’t carry much weight but the latest census will.
The new designations will come out after the official census data release I would imagine.

Yea true, however it now appears they are the last hold out. Officially reached the 25% commute threshold, 95% of the residence in both metros believe they are already one metro or that they should be, businesses and organizations treat it as one area, and both MPO's have already started working with each other.

[MardiGras251]

Originally Posted by Surge0001

Yea true, however it now appears they are the last hold out. Officially reached the 25% commute threshold, 95% of the residence in both metros believe they are already one metro or that they should be, businesses and organizations treat it as one area, and both MPO's have already started working with each other.

Personally I believe the threshold has been crossed for years. I think the numbers were played with some to benefit baldwin in allocating federal funds. Just like the oops we forgot 100 thousand people.

[MardiGras251]

Originally Posted by Surge0001

Alright see here are my predictions:


First, I think we will start to see suburbination of South Mobile County (more specifically, the Lauerdine Road, (Actual South) DIP, Highway 90 and Mcdonald Road corridors). I think we will see the same growth as we see in West Mobile along with a new commercial corridor (mcdonald road) and an expanding commercial area at Bayley's Corner on DIP. In the other DIP (within city limits) I think we will see gentrification of the corridor South of I-10 (reinforced by the fact that MPD Precinct 1 will be moving into the area).



In West Mobile, I think growth will continue on the current path or actually slow down given the lake and the land around the lake being owned by the water dept. The soon to be SnowRoad/McFarland commercial corridor could allow growth to continue in West Mobile which is why I think its an "if" situation. I think we may also begin hearing talks of a new interstate/highway bypass by the end of the 2030 census. In the Highway 98 regions I think you'll start seeing more growth in Semmes and Wilmer since there will be a highway bypass around (198), the locals won't have to worry with as much traffic. Along the 198 corridor I think we will start to see some subdivisions begin to pop up, (particularly on the highway 45 corridor) I also imagine that the 198/I-65 interchange will begin reconstruction as its a nightmare and its obvious that there are plans to realign 213 to the new service road by looking at it. I think we might see Mcintosh see the first steps toward suburb inaction


In the inner loop I think Downtown Mobile will thrive, the areas around will gentrify like Midtown. Ann Street will gentrify, I actually think the Martin Luther King Ave and St Stephens Road Corridor will Gentrify as well as Broad Street Corridor. Prichard I believe will finally start to see the light. I think it will actually explode in growth and population almost overnight given several reasons: half of inner prichard is empty lots, great walkablility potential, road structure and lots are made for density, quick access to I-165 and Downtown, Its cheap, and plenty of room for commercial building.


In Baldwin County, I imagine Daphne's growth may slow down and the Fairhope, Spanish Fort will begin to grow at the rates. Loxley will explode in populations with Robertsdale and Stapleton. I think Foley will continue to grow at the same rate. Gulf Shores and Orange Beach will hit capacity. I believe we will also see the rise of the North Baldwin County suburbs with the incorporation of Stockton as the first suburbs (or second? I'm not sure what to consider Bay Minette). I also believe that by the end of the census that Baldwin County will finally be incorporated in the Mobile metro along with George County MS.

I can see a large amount of growth on mcDonald road south in a commercial aspect and residential aspect. Anything on or south of Laurendine and on or west of bellingrath would be ideal. Let’s not forget that it took 20 plus years for Shillinger road south corridor to get where it is today. I’m not saying Irvington can’t grow at a faster rate but if west Mobile was a city it’d be up there with the rest of the fastest growing city/towns in the state.
I don’t think the lake will affect growth. Building a neighborhood or a house on the lake is a long shot but the land around the lake is fair game. Just being in the proximity of the lake makes it an amenity for any future neighborhoods. There’s a big area of land which is known as “the neck” that sits south of the lake and north of airport at Newman rd. will be prime location in the future. The land is just simply beautiful out there with the creeks and rolling hills

[Surge0001]

Originally Posted by MardiGras251

I can see a large amount of growth on mcDonald road south in a commercial aspect and residential aspect. Anything on or south of Laurendine and on or west of bellingrath would be ideal. Let’s not forget that it took 20 plus years for Shillinger road south corridor to get where it is today. I’m not saying Irvington can’t grow at a faster rate but if west Mobile was a city it’d be up there with the rest of the fastest growing city/towns in the state.
I don’t think the lake will affect growth. Building a neighborhood or a house on the lake is a long shot but the land around the lake is fair game. Just being in the proximity of the lake makes it an amenity for any future neighborhoods. There’s a big area of land which is known as “the neck” that sits south of the lake and north of airport at Newman rd. will be prime location in the future. The land is just simply beautiful out there with the creeks and rolling hills

I see what you mean but MAWSS owns more land than whats immediately adjacent to it, which is why I'm hesitant on potential growth there. Now that I'm looking more in to where the Airport Road/BLVD, I do believe we will continue to see growth along it up to either north of grand bay or even state line

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by Surge0001

HOLLLDDDD UUPPPP


According to the Fairhope-Daphne-Foley MPO 25.8% of Baldwin County Commutes to Mobile County...... so uh why are they not a part of our metro?


http://easternshorempo.org/wp-conten...-2045-LRTP.pdf
Page 33

Maybe because Baldwin County is their own metro. If the new metro definition (central area of 100,000 instead of the current 50,000), they would become a micro and at that point might become part of the Mobile/Baldwin metro. Same with Decatur in Huntsville (plus, with all the construcion for Mazda/Toyota, Amazon, and others, the cities are growing together).

I think I read somewhere that new metro definitions based on the 2020 census will be released in the spring of 2022. Baldwin might get sucked into Pensacola.

[PortCity]

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

Baldwin might get sucked into Pensacola.

LOL not enough traffic from Baldwin goes that way and way to much rural space. And weirdly they don't have any suburban cities adjacent to Pensacola. Well atleast not yet, the Easternshore on the other hand are suburbs of Mobile and accout for almost 70k. I think with the new metro designations Baldwin lost their metro status. I also wouldn't be shocked if Mobile gained another county in its CSA.

[evlb401]

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

Maybe because Baldwin County is their own metro. If the new metro definition (central area of 100,000 instead of the current 50,000), they would become a micro and at that point might become part of the Mobile/Baldwin metro. Same with Decatur in Huntsville (plus, with all the construcion for Mazda/Toyota, Amazon, and others, the cities are growing together).

I think I read somewhere that new metro definitions based on the 2020 census will be released in the spring of 2022. Baldwin might get sucked into Pensacola.

Pretty sure a county has to be above the 25% threshold for three consecutive American Community Surveys to be included within a metro. The commuting from Baldwin to Mobile has been hovering between 23% and 26% for the last 10 years.

Baldwin to Pensacola (Escambia County, FL) has been about 3% for the last 20 years. I don't think it has ever topped 4%.

[Surge0001]

Originally Posted by evlb401

Pretty sure a county has to be above the 25% threshold for three consecutive American Community Surveys to be included within a metro. The commuting from Baldwin to Mobile has been hovering between 23% and 26% for the last 10 years.

Baldwin to Pensacola (Escambia County, FL) has been about 3% for the last 20 years. I don't think it has ever topped 4%.

Then hopefully they will finally be added for this next survey. Would bring the metro up to 700k instead of 400k which would make us look that much more appealing (like we should be).

[RocketDawg]

Do you know what the workforce (number of people) is for Baldwin County?

According to this Principal Commuting Patterns in Alabama there are 14,320 workers commuting from Baldwin County to Mobile County. No indication of the data date - could be as early as the 2010 census.

[Surge0001]

2020 Baldwin County mpo says 20k work in mobile out of the 77k and sites BLS