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Come on - you can't be serious... You preach "facts" and quote 1 metro from a lagging 2 month Case Shiller index and "goggle bubble gold"? wow
I benefit NOTHING from the advice I provide here - whereas, you only make money when people take on debt (i.e. "buy" houses). Which advice is better objectively?
So - rethink your post... the SAFE bet is to not deplete savings and take on significant debt right now. Your suggestion is the gamble. Yet, you say the opposite and play on the emotions of this OP insinuating that they "may lose out" or "miss it". Blinding yourself with emotion to what is really going on in the economy is foolish. There's nothing in your post to give even the slightest indication on why buying now is any better then next week, next month, or next year. You say in clear terms you don't know yourself what's going to happen, yet contradict the uncertainty with advice to move forward. It's not objective, it's disingenuous, and it stinks.
that 1 fact was more than what you provided, wasnt it? And that one fact proved that home values are not declining everywhere like you say.
Plus, how do we know what you do. You might work for a company that benefits from higher foreclosures, or gold investing. I am not making money by giving advice here. I just feel now is a great time to buy since prices are down and interest rates are low.
When is the best time to take on debt, when rates are low or rates are high? Rates are very close to all time lows so seems like a good time to take on debt. Would rather buy a home today at 4.25% vs waiting a year or two to buy and have a 6% rate. I agree to not deplete savings... do a loan with as little down payment as possibe.
And you say nothing in my post gives a clear terms of why now is a good time to buy? Did you read it... Let me state in again, i will use caps so you will definitely see. HOME PRICES ARE LOW, INTEREST RATES ARE LOW RIGHT NOW! Those 2 statements are 100% accurate and cant be argued. Rates might not be low next month, home values might be higher next month. Again, today rates are higher than where they were last month. So, next week or next month rates could be higher, could be lower, could be the same... dont know but i know where they are now.
I dont see how i contradicted myself or was disingenuous. I said make a decision on facts. I do feel you are part of the Peter Schiff the world is ending crowd. I am an optimist. And all of us, including you, will benefit when housing demand comes back strong and home values go up across the country.
To some degree. But i would rather have a .125% or a .25% higher interest rate and hold onto cash. We are in uncertain times. Once you put the cash into the home, you may not be able to get it back. Closing costs will be the same.
To some degree. But i would rather have a .125% or a .25% higher interest rate and hold onto cash. We are in uncertain times. Once you put the cash into the home, you may not be able to get it back. Closing costs will be the same.
So, what is typical in this market? I was planning on 20%. Would a reduced down be 15%? 10%?
Also, I'm not getting a lot of feedback on another thread that I started. Do you recommend a large nationwide bank or a smaller community lender, credit union, mortgage company, etc. ?
Definitely either a small regional bank, credit union or a broker. Stay away from the big banks. Rates are not as good and it takes them forever. If you find a good honest broker, that would be your best option.. in my opinion.
If doing less than 20% down, do a first and second lien such as a 80/10/10 or 80/15/5. That is a 80% first mortgage, 10% or 15% second lien and then down payment.
You can do as little as 3.5% down if you do a FHA loan or 5% down on a conventional loan.
Competition varies in my area on rates and efficiency - big or small is not reflective of which is better - I have more problems with specific people in banks than the actual banks themselves.
Look at the rents, look at your payment. If your confident on the job market (and your job/field of work) in your area that will help you make your choice. If values drop 10% more it won't matter if your staying put, unless rents are actually going down. When buying there is ALWAYS the chance of values going up, values going down, rates doing the same. Educate yourself on your area, weigh out your goals and you will be fine.
Following advise from people that know absolutely everything and speak in absolutes, that might be a good idea too.
that 1 fact was more than what you provided, wasnt it? And that one fact proved that home values are not declining everywhere like you say.
Plus, how do we know what you do. You might work for a company that benefits from higher foreclosures, or gold investing. I am not making money by giving advice here. I just feel now is a great time to buy since prices are down and interest rates are low.
When is the best time to take on debt, when rates are low or rates are high? Rates are very close to all time lows so seems like a good time to take on debt. Would rather buy a home today at 4.25% vs waiting a year or two to buy and have a 6% rate. I agree to not deplete savings... do a loan with as little down payment as possibe.
And you say nothing in my post gives a clear terms of why now is a good time to buy? Did you read it... Let me state in again, i will use caps so you will definitely see. HOME PRICES ARE LOW, INTEREST RATES ARE LOW RIGHT NOW! Those 2 statements are 100% accurate and cant be argued. Rates might not be low next month, home values might be higher next month. Again, today rates are higher than where they were last month. So, next week or next month rates could be higher, could be lower, could be the same... dont know but i know where they are now.
I dont see how i contradicted myself or was disingenuous. I said make a decision on facts. I do feel you are part of the Peter Schiff the world is ending crowd. I am an optimist. And all of us, including you, will benefit when housing demand comes back strong and home values go up across the country.
I was away for a while... Listen, I've backed down from these arguments with you before and it's getting more difficult for me. I don't work in the RE industry and I don't have some PIMCO style portfolio where I can "short housing". I don't even know what to say about the "gold investing" comment. I'm simply trying to voice an opinion about the topic of "Best time to buy?". You know - the subject of this thread.
The entire crux of your argument is a naive, "nobody really knows what's going to happen", and head down approach - which is probably fine if you're buying a big screen TV, or maybe a car. When you're talking about making the largest purchase of your life, I tend to look deeper... and you don't have to look really hard.
Peter Schiff - no clue what to say again. I don't think anyone who is preaching the "world is ending" can be taken seriously. I'm not certain exactly what he said for you to label him like that. I will tell you I have seen interviews with Robert Shiller... of your Case Shiller Index references. You seem to think that's a reputable source. Have you seen a recent interview with him? I think this is about 2 months old:
Did you get a chance to look at the latest report to Congress from the US Office of the SIGTARP? TARP was part of the bailout / stimulus / whatever you want to call it.
All of the major lending institutions committed some level of fraud. I don't really think you're surprised by that shocking news. Maybe you've come to grips with it and it's OK. Let's go folks... move along - nothing to see here. No link here... I don't think it's difficult to get an idea of the issue. It's gone pretty mainstream now.
Have you looked at consumer pricing? Look at the CPI over the last year vs. the things we buy every day. Foodstuffs, energy, pork, beef, coffee, sugar - your every day things are getting more expensive due to the monetary policy in place to try and get your houses to "inflate". Yet, how do you get houses to go up when your dollar isn't going as far as it was last year?
Property taxes are going up. Some people think that when your house is devalued, your taxes go down - it actually makes sense. But, the problem is that the municipalities still have the same nut to cover. Actually it's way more, they still have to pay for the under performing pensions that are heavily invested in all the mortgages you sell. You know - the ones a whole bunch of people aren't paying... the ones they can't foreclose on. They have to raise taxes.
Again, I can't really provide a specific link here, but I'm fairly confident you can find I'm not lying that most people will be paying more (in some cases, MUCH more) property taxes next year. So, wait - my dollar isn't going as far and I have to pay more?! Yes, Virginia, there is no Santa Claus.
I really could go on, but notice that I've specifically avoided talking about un(der)employment... or outright manipulation of the stock market from The Fed... or some political attack on liberals or conservatives... or Thomas Jefferson quotes. Believe me, I'm tempted. But I stuck to some pretty basic facts here - as "factual" as anything you've offered at least.
When this much is at stake there really aren't many surprises... I mean seriously, do you think the decisions on interest rates are like the lotto machine? Whatever number comes out is today's rate! It's completely and utterly rigged - they meet about it and let everyone know ahead of time. For heck's sake, The Fed just sent around a questionnaire to the biggest banks asking how much QE2 they should do.
So, looking at these things I didn't have to dig very far to find - note that half my links here are .gov. Key thing being I'm not pointing you at some survivalist site telling you to stockpile ammo. It's not the "world is ending" stuff... It's simple info to help explain some things that go directly in the face of pushing housing prices up. In fact, they all point to prices going down - and not down by a little. How you say "HOME PRICES ARE LOW, INTEREST RATES ARE LOW RIGHT NOW!" blindly and act like there's no info out there is well beyond me. Nobody can be sure! Righto! You even in this same thread recommend jumping in at 96.5% FHA with its extra MI and being underwater as soon as you drive the house off the lot. It's like that wonderful logic of buying based on the "payment". Maybe you have an ARM to sell me, too. Do you get paid more for those?
Continued unemployment, foreclosures, "who has the title", the commercial RE bust, etc. convinces me that another year will show us much more clearly that the time to buy is not now. Prices have a long way to go to reach even 2000 levels when there was not a wordwide depression. Rent for now; you won't miss anything other than a lot more downside. We will see some big property tax increases in the coming years as well. Government is broke. Keep in mind if you do buy that less than 20% down will most likely require mortgage insurance. Good luck on making the right choices. Don't take advice on real estate from an RE agent. That's like asking a used car dealer which car to buy and if now is a good time to buy it.
I was away for a while... Listen, I've backed down from these arguments with you before and it's getting more difficult for me. I don't work in the RE industry and I don't have some PIMCO style portfolio where I can "short housing". I don't even know what to say about the "gold investing" comment. I'm simply trying to voice an opinion about the topic of "Best time to buy?". You know - the subject of this thread. Yes i know the subject. The best time to buy is when prices are down and financing costs are low... we have both of those now.
The entire crux of your argument is a naive, "nobody really knows what's going to happen", and head down approach - which is probably fine if you're buying a big screen TV, or maybe a car. When you're talking about making the largest purchase of your life, I tend to look deeper... and you don't have to look really hard. No it isnt. My advice is based on right now. Right now homes are on "sale". Interest rates are about as low as they have ever been. So, low prices, low interest rates...might be a good time to buy vs... i think homes are going lower so wait and i think rates going lower so wait. What if you are wrong. Give your opinion but the individual needs to decide. My approach is a bird in hand is worth more than 2 in the bush. I do agree that there is a very good chance we see lower rates down the road and property values decline. A few weeks ago, 30 year fixed rates hit 3.75% and i feel at best they might decline to 3.5% area. I agree, values will be pressured lower nationwide but not every house is going down in value. Your advice is for everyone to wait becauase every house is going lower in value is complety naive and not going to happen.
Peter Schiff - no clue what to say again. I don't think anyone who is preaching the "world is ending" can be taken seriously. I'm not certain exactly what he said for you to label him like that. I will tell you I have seen interviews with Robert Shiller... of your Case Shiller Index references. You seem to think that's a reputable source. Have you seen a recent interview with him? I think this is about 2 months old: No i havent, but thanks for the link, will watch this weekend.
Did you get a chance to look at the latest report to Congress from the US Office of the SIGTARP? TARP was part of the bailout / stimulus / whatever you want to call it. TARP was a loan as most has been paid back with a profit.
All of the major lending institutions committed some level of fraud. I don't really think you're surprised by that shocking news. Maybe you've come to grips with it and it's OK. Let's go folks... move along - nothing to see here. No link here... I don't think it's difficult to get an idea of the issue. It's gone pretty mainstream now. I agree with you here but cant cry over spilled milk. Fix it and move on. Everyone has to accept blame for the current economic conditions. When banks were lending money to anyone with a pulse, who has yelling and screaming for them to stop? Nobody because life was good. Hind sight is always 20/20.
Have you looked at consumer pricing? Look at the CPI over the last year vs. the things we buy every day. Foodstuffs, energy, pork, beef, coffee, sugar - your every day things are getting more expensive due to the monetary policy in place to try and get your houses to "inflate". Yet, how do you get houses to go up when your dollar isn't going as far as it was last year? The Fed is trying to get inflation for fear of deflation. Fed has stated over and over, inflation is not a concern today. I go grocery shopping with my wife, and yes i have seen some things go up in price and other things go down in price, Walmart is selling milk for .99 a gallon!
Property taxes are going up. Some people think that when your house is devalued, your taxes go down - it actually makes sense. But, the problem is that the municipalities still have the same nut to cover. Actually it's way more, they still have to pay for the under performing pensions that are heavily invested in all the mortgages you sell. You know - the ones a whole bunch of people aren't paying... the ones they can't foreclose on. They have to raise taxes. Or they could cut spending.
Again, I can't really provide a specific link here, but I'm fairly confident you can find I'm not lying that most people will be paying more (in some cases, MUCH more) property taxes next year. So, wait - my dollar isn't going as far and I have to pay more?! Yes, Virginia, there is no Santa Claus. I have never said you lie about anything. I also value your opinion.. It just drives me nuts when you cast the huge net and give the big picture that home prices going down. Again, i think they will but not every house every where. You have to know the market you are buying in.
I really could go on, but notice that I've specifically avoided talking about un(der)employment... or outright manipulation of the stock market from The Fed... or some political attack on liberals or conservatives... or Thomas Jefferson quotes. Believe me, I'm tempted. But I stuck to some pretty basic facts here - as "factual" as anything you've offered at least. Yes you provide very good information for the big picture view of our economy and housing, i prefer to focus in on the individual knowing that real estate is always about location, location, location.
When this much is at stake there really aren't many surprises... I mean seriously, do you think the decisions on interest rates are like the lotto machine? Whatever number comes out is today's rate! It's completely and utterly rigged - they meet about it and let everyone know ahead of time. For heck's sake, The Fed just sent around a questionnaire to the biggest banks asking how much QE2 they should do. No, never had and never said so. I am confident they will do QE2, but i dont think that will drive mortgage rates much lower especially with the threat of inflation down the road that more QE will likely cause.
So, looking at these things I didn't have to dig very far to find - note that half my links here are .gov. Key thing being I'm not pointing you at some survivalist site telling you to stockpile ammo. Many dont believe government data. I am not one of those though. It's not the "world is ending" stuff... It's simple info to help explain some things that go directly in the face of pushing housing prices up. In fact, they all point to prices going down - and not down by a little. How you say "HOME PRICES ARE LOW, INTEREST RATES ARE LOW RIGHT NOW!" blindly and act like there's no info out there is well beyond me. Not sure why that is beyond you, you appear to be a very bright individual. Let me expand... home values have declined over the last couple years, thus home prices are low. Interest rates have declined and actually hit a record low a few weeks back, thus interest rates are low. Do you understand now? Additionally, you continue to say home prices going down implying every house in every state is going lower in value. I dont think that is the case. I think some areas of our country have bottomed and will either move sideways or appreciate in value. What is so hard to understand about that? Nobody can be sure! Righto! You even in this same thread recommend jumping in at 96.5% FHA with its extra MI and being underwater as soon as you drive the house off the lot. It's like that wonderful logic of buying based on the "payment". Maybe you have an ARM to sell me, too. Do you get paid more for those?
This is your second jab at me. The first one was when you said "Most people who work in the RE industry (from mortgage brokers to agents) will tell you to purchase - Wouldn't you if your entire living was based on RE and/or mortgage transactions?" As if i am giving my advice for my best interests. Since i am in this business, i cant give non biased advice? FYI, ARMS pay far less than fixed rate mortgages since the life of most ARMS are shorter than the life of a fixed rate mortgage. By the way, ARMS are great loans for some people... hope your head didnt explode with that comment.
AGAIN, NOT EVERY HOUSE EVERY WHERE IS GOING TO GO DOWN IN VALUE. YOU HAVE NO IDEA OF WHETHER THE HOUSE THAT THE OP IS INTERESTED IN IS ONE THAT WILL GO UP, DOWN OR STAY THE SAME.
As far as property taxes going up, won't this affect me even if I rent? Won't the property owner simply raise their rent as a reaction?
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