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Old 01-31-2008, 03:29 PM
 
Location: Durham, NC
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For people with experience and knowledge in the area - not for speculation...

What would your professional opinion as to the highest and lowest 30yr fixed rates could be 8-12 months from today? Can you see any likely scenario where it drops below 4.5 or spikes above 7?

What are the rates today with the fed cut taking hold now?
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Old 01-31-2008, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Socialist Republik of Amerika
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All I hear is the theme song to jeopardy

freedom
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Old 01-31-2008, 07:21 PM
 
Location: NC
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As a person with experience and knowledge...and without speculating....honestly, I haven't a stinkin' clue, esp that far out. Anyone who tells you otherwise is just speculating. Macro economic trends that steer rates can themselves be steered by actions of the Fed, so there are way too many factors in play.

Now if you asked my opinion, there's probably a better likelihood of rates hitting 4.5 than of hitting 7%, but still, to get to 4.5% we would probably need more credit turmoil, more stock turmoil and no more or minimal Fed intervention...a lot of "what-ifs".

Rates improved slightly today...bottom rate (at par) 5.25%
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Old 01-31-2008, 09:46 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sneezecake View Post
For people with experience and knowledge in the area - not for speculation...?
LOL, people with experience and knowledge "speculate" all the time. No one's crystal ball is clear enough to predict short/long term interest rates w/any degree of accuracy.


Quote:
Originally Posted by sneezecake View Post
What would your professional opinion as to the highest and lowest 30yr fixed rates could be 8-12 months from today? Can you see any likely scenario where it drops below 4.5 or spikes above 7?

What are the rates today with the fed cut taking hold now?
I'll play along...

mortgage rates acutually just ROSE recently off their record lows....(avg 30yr fixed w/no points I'd say is around 5.5 - 5.75%??

Since we're in an election year, I don't expect rates to rise dramatically, so I'd have to 'GUESS' that rates will hover in the upper 5's to low-mid 6's....

just a guess....
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Old 02-01-2008, 07:20 AM
 
Location: Durham, NC
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Very true re: the speculation caveat - I should have said, someone who has good reason to speculate, not just some guy who just locked in and says "DOOOOOD THE RATES ARE GONNA GO TO 8.0!!!"

Curious - what does an election year have to do with anything, and is this a time-proven trend?
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Old 02-01-2008, 08:50 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sneezecake View Post
Very true re: the speculation caveat - I should have said, someone who has good reason to speculate, not just some guy who just locked in and says "DOOOOOD THE RATES ARE GONNA GO TO 8.0!!!"

Curious - what does an election year have to do with anything, and is this a time-proven trend?
I had dinner with a friend who mentioned this. To me, it sounds absurd. We have such terrible fundamentals and imbalances in the debt markets that an election will have little to no impact, IMHO. Maybe for a couple of days or a week, but we'll see a short term rally like we're seeing now.

Interest rates will eventually go through the moon and might pale 1970-1980 rates, and it'll happen abruptly and many will think it came out of left field. Whether that happens in this year or one of the next two, is unknown.
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Old 02-01-2008, 09:09 AM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sneezecake View Post
Very true re: the speculation caveat - I should have said, someone who has good reason to speculate, not just some guy who just locked in and says "DOOOOOD THE RATES ARE GONNA GO TO 8.0!!!"

Curious - what does an election year have to do with anything, and is this a time-proven trend?
typically, the fed doesn't raise rates in an election year & just w/the way the economy is, I don't think they'll do it anyway.

But again, no one knows where rates will be in the short/long term....
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Old 02-01-2008, 09:16 AM
 
Location: Durham, NC
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But that would be the Fed rate, not mortgage rates...I've been reading a lot of stuff that says the latest Fed rate cut may cause rates to rise.

I am just nervous because I may be signing to build a house and I have to worry about rates in 7 months as we're stretched thin at 6%
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Old 02-01-2008, 09:34 AM
 
Location: NC
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...and I could direct you to a lot of stuff that will say the latest Fed cut may cause rates to lower, in fact over the past two days that has happened. People get paid millions to figure this out and yet NO ONE KNOWS for sure.
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Old 02-01-2008, 09:50 AM
 
Location: Durham, NC
1,364 posts, read 5,682,807 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipL View Post
...and I could direct you to a lot of stuff that will say the latest Fed cut may cause rates to lower, in fact over the past two days that has happened. People get paid millions to figure this out and yet NO ONE KNOWS for sure.
Yeah I know - I was just wondering if there was any kind of limit to how far one way or another rates could swing in an 8 month period barring a 1929-esque moment. I figure if historically the largest move over the course of 8 months was 2%, then I could run numbers based on a 7.5% mortgage and see if it could work or if we'd be stuck building a house we couldnt afford. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
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