Time to buy yet...or wait? (Georgetown: for sale, real estate market, oceanfront) - Myrtle Beach - Conway area - South Carolina (SC) -Horry County - City-Data Forum

mayhurst · 01-27-2009, 05:53 PM

I wondered if the condo market in Myrtle and NMB has bottomed out yet. We are considering purchasing, but would obviously prefer to purchase at the bottom of the market. Any info on newer projects would be of particular interest, but any info is welcome. Also, we would like a 3 bedroom or larger unit. We would be buying for personal use, NOT an investment, but our funds are thinner these days so that's why we are looking to purchase at the bottom, if possible. Thank you.

southernbychoice14 · 01-27-2009, 07:25 PM

a piece of advice from a longtime realtor....how do you know when it hits the bottom? When it starts back up.By the time you find the bottom you know it because it has already started to rebound.
That said I see plenty of good deals out there.Lots of shorts sales.

PawleysDude · 01-28-2009, 02:25 PM

Quote:

if the condo market in Myrtle and NMB has bottomed out yet...

Good question. I'm not an RE expert, but it doesn't feel like the bottom around here. Unemployment is at 11-12% in Horry and Georgetown counties, although much of our housing market is driven by new arrivals. Here are a couple recent articles from the MB newspaper. Keep in mind that average prices don't mean a lot around here. Oceanfront market is very different from golf course, which is very different from typical residential, etc.....

Prices Hit the Floor (http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/business/story/756054.html - broken link)

Slower Sales (http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/business/story/760980.html - broken link)

NCBND · 01-31-2009, 06:15 AM

The MB condo market hasn't bottomed out yet and it won't as long as foreclosures continue to cascade into it. As the excellent articles cited above state (and thanks for the links), there is roughly a three year supply of units for sale in MB right now. It would take several years to burn through that excess inventory even if the national and local real estate markets corrected themselves and right now they show no signs of doing so.

My personal MB condo market barometer is the price of a direct ocean front (DOF) condo in one of the usual resort-type buildings in MB. I view those buildings as largely fungible because they compete in the short-term, family vacation rental market. The asking price of those units in foreclosure, and that's a lot of units, is rapidly fallling towards the $100,000/bedroom mark. I think that's a pretty significant milestone.

mayhurst · 01-31-2009, 09:22 AM

Thank you for the very responsive replies...very helpful! I don't mind if I buy on the way back up, as I don't think the eventual rebound will be lightning fast. That way I at least know it won't likely go down a lot further. I will continue to check back.

Marylandsailor · 01-31-2009, 07:37 PM

I'm interested in this too as I'm closing on my house in Maryland and moving to the MB area. I feel I'm lucky to get a buyer and had to price my home below the current market here to find a buyer. My house was on the market for almost a year. Very soon after I lowered my price drastically I had a contract. My take on the current real estate market is this: The prices will continue to fall because there are so many houses on the market to choose from. (increased supply). People are wary of further price declines also so are reluctant to buy. (decreased demand). Those that absoultely must sell, have to price their house to compete with the forclosure down the block and so the house prices continue their downward spiral. I think it will take 2 or 3 more years to see things smooth out to normal levels. Just my take on this and I'm NOT a real estate professional.

B

pnutbujelly · 02-01-2009, 01:07 PM

I see things in MB dropping a bit but people are still stubborn and holding price. I think it would be foolish to buy now. I do not see anything on the horizon that tells me that the recession is over or even moving sideways. The poster who said that you know it is bottom when things go up. This is true enough for a short small recession. Its called a bounce. But in what this looks like there will be a sideways movement before anything goes up. The country is hemorrhaging jobs at a rate that will throw us into a possible depression. Remember 10 months ago all the head in the clouds people were saying there was not recession and it was all in our heads. Remember Phil Graham? Many places like MB had a 5 year run of 10 to 15% a year increase in home values and a small 5% drop is not going to cut it. Home values in some parts of the country went up 100 to 150% in 4 to 5 years. Caterpillar just cut 20k jobs, Boeing cut 5000 jobs. It is much worse than 77 to 84 recession. During that recession California and Florida thumbed their nose at the rest of the country. I moved to Florida and it never skipped a beat. Homes were being built and sold as fast as they could build them. Many 3/2 new homes were being sold for 52k. Now that same home is going for 175k+ Although things are dropping fast in price there. Personally I would wait a bit. Why not use your interest income to help pay for a rental, make sure you like living there and keep fluid. Remember cash is king right now.

mayhurst · 02-01-2009, 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pnutbujelly

I see things in MB dropping a bit but people are still stubborn and holding price. I think it would be foolish to buy now. I do not see anything on the horizon that tells me that the recession is over or even moving sideways. The poster who said that you know it is bottom when things go up. This is true enough for a short small recession. Its called a bounce. But in what this looks like there will be a sideways movement before anything goes up. The country is hemorrhaging jobs at a rate that will throw us into a possible depression. Remember 10 months ago all the head in the clouds people were saying there was not recession and it was all in our heads. Remember Phil Graham? Many places like MB had a 5 year run of 10 to 15% a year increase in home values and a small 5% drop is not going to cut it. Home values in some parts of the country went up 100 to 150% in 4 to 5 years. Caterpillar just cut 20k jobs, Boeing cut 5000 jobs. It is much worse than 77 to 84 recession. During that recession California and Florida thumbed their nose at the rest of the country. I moved to Florida and it never skipped a beat. Homes were being built and sold as fast as they could build them. Many 3/2 new homes were being sold for 52k. Now that same home is going for 175k+ Although things are dropping fast in price there. Personally I would wait a bit. Why not use your interest income to help pay for a rental, make sure you like living there and keep fluid. Remember cash is king right now.

I tend to agree with you; condo prices seemed to get artificially sky high very rapidly. Thanks for your insight and advice.

pnutbujelly · 02-02-2009, 03:22 PM

I like anyone else do not have a crystal ball. But I think things are way to high and the economy has not even started to hit bottom yet. This in my mind makes for a real estate market that has a ways to go before prices settle down and go side ways or up. If my home sells I will rent for a year or more to see what happens. Keeping fluid and mobile is the key to surviving right now. I hope that light at the end of the tunnel is the opening not a train on coming.

lgavrich · 02-03-2009, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pnutbujelly

I like anyone else do not have a crystal ball. But I think things are way to high and the economy has not even started to hit bottom yet. This in my mind makes for a real estate market that has a ways to go before prices settle down and go side ways or up. If my home sells I will rent for a year or more to see what happens. Keeping fluid and mobile is the key to surviving right now. I hope that light at the end of the tunnel is the opening not a train on coming.

Pnut has exactly the right idea; rent and let your landlord accept all the risk of the housing market. Whatever happens to the market, up or down, movement over the 12 months of your lease won't matter much in terms of the price you'll pay if you buy a house later. You get an up close view of the market over the time you rent. And all those homeowners who can't sell their homes will be happy to provide a significant discount on rental rates. I see an ocean view apartment in your future, at some ridiculously low monthly outlay.