Next Booming Nashville suburb? (Brentwood, McEwen: mall, land, area)

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by MetropolitanTN

In order for it to be included in the MSA, then Smith Co's residents must be going to Nashville not just into Wilson. Right?

Section 2. Central Counties
The central county or counties of a
CBSA are those counties that:
(a) Have at least 50 percent of their
population in urban areas of at least
10,000 population; or
(b) Have within their boundaries a
population of at least 5,000 located in a
single urban area of at least 10,000
population.
A central county is associated with
the urbanized area or urban cluster that
accounts for the largest portion of the
county’s population. The central
counties associated with a particular
urbanized area or urban cluster are
grouped to form a single cluster of
central counties for purposes of
measuring commuting to and from
potentially qualifying outlying counties.

Section 3. Outlying Counties
A county qualifies as an outlying
county of a CBSA if it meets the
following commuting requirements:
(a) At least 25 percent of the workers
living in the county work in the central
county or counties of the CBSA; or
(b) At least 25 percent of the
employment in the county is accounted
for by workers who reside in the central
county or counties of the CBSA.
A county may be included in only one
CBSA. If a county qualifies as a central
county of one CBSA and as outlying in
another, it falls within the CBSA in
which it is a central county. A county
that qualifies as outlying to multiple
CBSAs falls within the CBSA with
which it has the strongest commuting
tie, as measured by either 3(a) or 3(b)
above. The counties included in a CBSA
must be contiguous; if a county is not
contiguous with other counties in the
CBSA, it will not fall within the CBSA.

The central counties associated with the Nashville metro area are Davidson, Sumner, Williamson, and Wilson. Rutherford is not, for some reason (I'll have to check into that to find out why).

In the case of Smith County, there are 7,634 total commuters.
-4,020 commute to work within Smith County (52.7%)
-1,565 commute to Wilson County (20.5%)
-816 commute to Davidson County (10.7%)
-81 commute to Sumner County (1.1%)
-75 commute to Williamson County (1.0%)
-248 commute to Rutherford County (3.2%)

2,537 commuters work in the Nashville MSA's central counties (not including Rutherford), which is 33.2%, well above the threshold of 25%.



Btw, so I don't hijack the thread,if anyone else wants a specific county breakdown like this, message me.

[Shakeesha]

I think Portland/White House will reap the benefits of Gallatin's growth. Once the new interchange is completed up there, more industry will be created. Also, as someone else mentioned, the area between Franklin, KY and Nashville's northernmost suburbs are long overdue for new growth. I expect the land will be gobbled up for new housing as the cost of living continues to rise in the current suburban areas. My alternative boomer will definitely Bellevue/Kingston Springs.

[septimus]

I think we are more likely to see rural areas inside Davison fill in first before people start looking beyond the traditional Williamson/Sumner/Rutherford/Wilson burbs.

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by septimus

I think we are more likely to see rural areas inside Davison fill in first before people start looking beyond the traditional Williamson/Sumner/Rutherford/Wilson burbs.

Especially as traffic gets worse.


However, I will throw one interesting option out there: Pleasant View. It's located on top of the ridge, meaning there's a 5-7 mile buffer on that side of town where higher density infill is simply not an option, and Nashvillians expressed in the Nashville Next forum that they wish that side of Davidson County (including Joelton) would remain relatively rural...if they follow through with that zoning-wise, then Pleasant View/Coopertown become the first developable area for nearly 15 miles along the I-24 corridor. That would be roughly equivalent to there being no major development between Highway 96 in Franklin and I-440 along the 65 corridor.

Pleasant View is roughly 20 miles from Nashville, 20 miles from Clarksville, and 10 miles from Springfield, so it could easily serve as a commuter base to all 3.

[Hey_Hey]

Originally Posted by septimus

I think we are more likely to see rural areas inside Davison fill in first before people start looking beyond the traditional Williamson/Sumner/Rutherford/Wilson burbs.

The general theme of Nashville Next is to urbanize the urban areas and keep rural the rural areas. There have been a couple fairly high profile planning issues that has reinforced this (a recent subdivision development near Bellevue was denied and Whites Creek most recently decided to stay rural as part of Nashville Next despite some pressure to suburbanize it.

One thing that could be a game changer is regional transit. If a viable plan is proposed and there is a regional rail system established then I believe we will see growth cluster around those stops. For example, if a line is established to Clarksville and there is a stop in Pleasant View then that could spur the development of hundreds of home because of the ease in getting into Nashville. With regional rail, many times a more remote area will actually have better access to the city than closer in suburbs.

[ExIslander]

Originally Posted by nashvols

The central counties associated with the Nashville metro area are Davidson, Sumner, Williamson, and Wilson. Rutherford is not, for some reason (I'll have to check into that to find out why).

Not sure what you're looking at, but most references to the Nashville metro area I've seen use the OMB's Metropolitan Statistical Area definition, which officially is the "Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN, Metropolitan Statistical Area," roughly 1.8 million people right now.

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by ExIslander

Not sure what you're looking at, but most references to the Nashville metro area I've seen use the OMB's Metropolitan Statistical Area definition, which officially is the "Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN, Metropolitan Statistical Area," roughly 1.8 million people right now.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/def...13/b-13-01.pdf

Top of page 22, near the bottom of page 41.

Like I said, I'm not sure why Rutherford County isn't included. Possibly a typo. I don't know of another list that shows central counties. I am certainly aware that Murfreesboro is, however, listed as a principal city.

[septimus]

FWIW there are some huge subdivisions planned for Fairview and it looks like Fairview is encouraging some growth.

[PHofKS]

Southern Cheatham County, where Kingston Springs and Pegram are, is saturated with 1 to 5 acre, single-residence lots. There are very few lots with significant acreage suitable for building large subdivisions and those are mostly tied up in family trusts. I don't see anyone putting together enough of these small lots to create one large development.

Most of the beautiful properties along South Harpeth Road have had preservation clauses attached to their deeds by the local billionaire neighbors which prevent development of those properties. As I understand, they offer the landowner mega-bucks to do that and the property owners accept. Then they build a beautiful fence in front of it and keep the grass mowed. It is one of the most beautiful drives in Tennessee (or anywhere), however, and will stay that way for years to come.

So, bottom line, don't look for Southern Cheatham County to ever grow much. In fact, the population may actually be decreasing.

[brentwoodgirl]

I had no idea there were so many billionaires in Cheatam County. I knew there were long lines of transplants hoping to get into Pegram, so it's nice to finally know who has been preventing them.