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Old 08-29-2015, 05:52 PM
 
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Another poster brought up in a different thread that Nashville's housing boom isn't really that special compared to the rest of the Southeast. Let's see how it stacks up. These figures are from the Census Bureau.

Metro area...2014 new housing units

Atlanta...26,683
Charlotte...18,537
Orlando...16,115
Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm Beach...15,259
Nashville...14,944
Raleigh-Durham (CSA)...14,234
Tampa-St Petersburg...12,386
Jacksonville FL...7,781
Charleston SC...6,155
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News...5,715
Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem (CSA)...4,717
Greenville SC...4,479
Richmond...4,312
Columbia SC...4,067
Louisville...4,011
Baton Rouge...3,568
Birmingham...3,364
Memphis...3,154
New Orleans...2,991
Little Rock...2,082

And here are the only metro areas in the country that had more homes built last year than Nashville:

Houston...63,741
New York-Newark...47,984
Dallas-Ft Worth...41,418
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim...26,950
Atlanta...26,683
Washington...24,804
Seattle-Tacoma...21,953
Phoenix...20,341
Austin...19,949
Charlotte...18,537
Orlando...16,115
Denver...15,767
Chicago...15,679
Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm Beach...15,259
Nashville...14,944

In a nutshell, not bad! Clearly, however, all this growth will come with some strings attached and expectations, particularly better public transit and more cohesion between all the various regional government entities.
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Old 08-29-2015, 07:06 PM
 
Location: Nashville, TN
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Seems pretty impressive to me.
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Old 08-30-2015, 10:42 AM
 
7,079 posts, read 16,657,543 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JMT View Post
Another poster brought up in a different thread that Nashville's housing boom isn't really that special compared to the rest of the Southeast. Let's see how it stacks up. These figures are from the Census Bureau.

Metro area...2014 new housing units

Atlanta...26,683
Charlotte...18,537
Orlando...16,115
Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm Beach...15,259
Nashville...14,944
Raleigh-Durham (CSA)...14,234
Tampa-St Petersburg...12,386
Jacksonville FL...7,781
Charleston SC...6,155
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News...5,715
Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem (CSA)...4,717
Greenville SC...4,479
Richmond...4,312
Columbia SC...4,067
Louisville...4,011
Baton Rouge...3,568
Birmingham...3,364
Memphis...3,154
New Orleans...2,991
Little Rock...2,082

And here are the only metro areas in the country that had more homes built last year than Nashville:

Houston...63,741
New York-Newark...47,984
Dallas-Ft Worth...41,418
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim...26,950
Atlanta...26,683
Washington...24,804
Seattle-Tacoma...21,953
Phoenix...20,341
Austin...19,949
Charlotte...18,537
Orlando...16,115
Denver...15,767
Chicago...15,679
Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm Beach...15,259
Nashville...14,944

In a nutshell, not bad! Clearly, however, all this growth will come with some strings attached and expectations, particularly better public transit and more cohesion between all the various regional government entities.

This is a very misleading post and there are so many factors that go into this. As I clearly demonstrated before, Nashville's metro area is MASSIVE in land area. As an example, twice that of Louisville's MSA in sheer geographical land area.

Nashville is absolutely booming and doing great.

What this list does not take into account is that the south's historically larger cities, namely Louisville, Memphis, Birmingham, and New Orleans, have so much old 19th and early 20th century housing stock that is seeing rehab that that will never see the numbers of new construction that the sunbelt is.

To me, the most impressive city on the list is actually charleston. Per capita, SC seems to be the "new Florida." Charleston is just as old and older than the above mentioned historic large southern cities, yet it has more new construction at less than half the size of the other mentioned metro areas. SC cities will be interesting to watch in the 21st century....I foresee "Florida" moving north....

The success in TN and NC...it is directly related to a favorable business climate which is created by lower taxes. Places like Louisville and New Orleans still have very high taxes, and in Louisivlle's case, it is located in an agrarian dominated state with an anti city tax code. All of these are factors. My opinion, and we are already seeing it, is the next boom is slowly migrating to places like Louisville and Richmond....the former seeing a lot of Midwest people, Chicagoans, etc, who like that it is urban and walkable and want warmer weather, but do not want to live deep in the sunbelt and like that it still feels Midwest. Richmond I think could be the same for those escaping the NE megalopolis.

Right now, TN, NC, and SC are trendy and "the thing."
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Old 08-30-2015, 01:08 PM
 
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all of those cities I think are much larger than Nashville. As a % of the population I'd be interested to see where Nashville ranks.

As for the size of Nashville's metro area, Houston is the size of a what they call a state in New England.
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Old 08-30-2015, 02:09 PM
 
Location: Franklin, TN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948 View Post
This is a very misleading post and there are so many factors that go into this. As I clearly demonstrated before, Nashville's metro area is MASSIVE in land area. As an example, twice that of Louisville's MSA in sheer geographical land area.
Nashville's metro includes a huge chunk of rural land that adds little to population or development.

For example, you mention that Nashville's MSA is twice as large as Louisville's (it's not quite, but close)...well if you take out the rural counties from Nashville's metro and just take the top 6 counties, you have a land area of 3,419.4 square miles, marginally smaller than Louisville's 3,578.3 square miles. You have a population of 1,546,076 (still almost 300,000 more than Louisville's) and in terms of 2014 new housing units, you still have 14,261 units in that area (95.4% of the MSA total), compared, still, to Louisville's 4,011.

So no, it's not because of Nashville's geography.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948 View Post
What this list does not take into account is that the south's historically larger cities, namely Louisville, Memphis, Birmingham, and New Orleans, have so much old 19th and early 20th century housing stock that is seeing rehab that that will never see the numbers of new construction that the sunbelt is.
New Orleans is an oddity here, because Katrina wiped out a lot of building stock...so they HAVE seen a lot of new construction...but it has slowed down as they replaced a lot of the damaged stock.

Tracking rehab numbers is very tricky, anyways, and usually does not really indicate growth....just investment (gentrification). It is one thing if you are filling up vacant houses. It is another if new families move into previously occupied houses and fix them up. Interestingly enough, there are a lot of cases where gentrification has actually led to population loss in neighborhoods, because the new residents replacing the old residents have smaller families.



In any case, I'm not here to put down Louisville's boom and numerous urban construction projects. I think it's great. I think what is going on in Birmingham is great. I think what is going on in Memphis is great. I don't want to see cities stagnate or decline -- and I like to visit them periodically as well, so having a healthy urban environment is a great thing. Some cities have farther to go than others. I think Louisville is in a good spot right now. My main point above is to change the notion that people have that Nashville's metro growth statistics are inflated somehow because of its size. Yes, Nashville is a spread out metro, but even if you cut the fat off the ends, the meat of the metro is still putting up very impressive numbers compared to its peers.
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Old 08-30-2015, 06:55 PM
 
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Originally Posted by nashvols View Post
Nashville's metro includes a huge chunk of rural land that adds little to population or development.

For example, you mention that Nashville's MSA is twice as large as Louisville's (it's not quite, but close)...well if you take out the rural counties from Nashville's metro and just take the top 6 counties, you have a land area of 3,419.4 square miles, marginally smaller than Louisville's 3,578.3 square miles. You have a population of 1,546,076 (still almost 300,000 more than Louisville's) and in terms of 2014 new housing units, you still have 14,261 units in that area (95.4% of the MSA total), compared, still, to Louisville's 4,011.

So no, it's not because of Nashville's geography.
You don't even have to include all six counties. Just Davidson County alone, with only 504 square miles, had 6,413 new housing starts last year. Of those, 3,775 were in buildings with five or more units. The amount of infill taking place in Nashville is staggering. Since 2010 Davidson County has added 42,000 new residents which is like building two Hendersonvilles inside of Davidson County in one decade.
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Old 09-01-2015, 10:10 AM
 
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Originally Posted by JMT View Post
You don't even have to include all six counties. Just Davidson County alone, with only 504 square miles, had 6,413 new housing starts last year. Of those, 3,775 were in buildings with five or more units. The amount of infill taking place in Nashville is staggering. Since 2010 Davidson County has added 42,000 new residents which is like building two Hendersonvilles inside of Davidson County in one decade.
I was all around Nashville just last month. It was rather impressive. I actually VERY strongly considered a move there when I left Florida. My list was Nashville, Austin, Louisville. Ultimately, I chose Louisville because I had lived there in the past and it is sort of the PBR of cities; Nashville is kind of like the Bud Light right now. That, and I am not a fan of the country thing and Louisville just has more of a neighborhoody, Midwest feel that gave me nostalgia for Chicago (not enough to return to that cold).

My only point is, older cities have more older, urban housing stock. If you saw the number of flippers and historic rehabs in Louisivlle going on right now, it is earth shattering.

To give you an idea, most of the "highrise" construction is actually historic rehabs...

The tallest about to start construction is the 30 story, ~375 ft Omni Hotel and residences (site prep and demo underway).

The next is the 29 story, 290 foot 800 building which is getting a skydeck with rooftop pool, sauna, and bar/lounge, and a complete overhaul including lobby.

The 17 story Barrington Place is undergoing complete rehab

The 11 story Republic Building is going upscale boutique hotel

The 14 story Starks building, over 100 years old, is under rehab to be a Canopy by Hilton, one of their first in this region, and apartments, offices, and restaurants.

The 9 story Holiday Inn is under construction

The 7 story Main and Clay is under development by a Nashville developer

The 7 story Embassy Suites rehab just wrapped up and added a new restaurant and retail.

The 8 story Aloft hotel opens in November.

I am probably missing a few multi stories....

Most of Louisivlle's construction is in historic rehabs...here is an example of one in Germantown:

Take a tour of the progress at Germantown Mill lofts - WDRB 41 Louisville News

This neighborhood ALONE has two of these projects under construction....but the real movement is in MULTIPLE neighborhoods seeing 4 plexus, shotguns, and many historic structures totally rehabbed. There is literally, off the top of my head, probably 50 other projects I can think of announced in the last year.

In the downtown area alone, there are 4 other hotels proposed or under construction that I did not mention...I need to get a list like the Cranewatch list in Nashville.
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Old 09-01-2015, 11:52 AM
 
13,337 posts, read 39,759,108 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948 View Post
I was all around Nashville just last month. It was rather impressive. I actually VERY strongly considered a move there when I left Florida. My list was Nashville, Austin, Louisville. Ultimately, I chose Louisville because I had lived there in the past and it is sort of the PBR of cities; Nashville is kind of like the Bud Light right now. That, and I am not a fan of the country thing and Louisville just has more of a neighborhoody, Midwest feel that gave me nostalgia for Chicago (not enough to return to that cold).

My only point is, older cities have more older, urban housing stock. If you saw the number of flippers and historic rehabs in Louisivlle going on right now, it is earth shattering.

To give you an idea, most of the "highrise" construction is actually historic rehabs...

The tallest about to start construction is the 30 story, ~375 ft Omni Hotel and residences (site prep and demo underway).

The next is the 29 story, 290 foot 800 building which is getting a skydeck with rooftop pool, sauna, and bar/lounge, and a complete overhaul including lobby.

The 17 story Barrington Place is undergoing complete rehab

The 11 story Republic Building is going upscale boutique hotel

The 14 story Starks building, over 100 years old, is under rehab to be a Canopy by Hilton, one of their first in this region, and apartments, offices, and restaurants.

The 9 story Holiday Inn is under construction

The 7 story Main and Clay is under development by a Nashville developer

The 7 story Embassy Suites rehab just wrapped up and added a new restaurant and retail.

The 8 story Aloft hotel opens in November.

I am probably missing a few multi stories....

Most of Louisivlle's construction is in historic rehabs...here is an example of one in Germantown:

Take a tour of the progress at Germantown Mill lofts - WDRB 41 Louisville News

This neighborhood ALONE has two of these projects under construction....but the real movement is in MULTIPLE neighborhoods seeing 4 plexus, shotguns, and many historic structures totally rehabbed. There is literally, off the top of my head, probably 50 other projects I can think of announced in the last year.

In the downtown area alone, there are 4 other hotels proposed or under construction that I did not mention...I need to get a list like the Cranewatch list in Nashville.
That's nice.
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Old 09-01-2015, 04:04 PM
 
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Originally Posted by JMT View Post
You don't even have to include all six counties. Just Davidson County alone, with only 504 square miles, had 6,413 new housing starts last year. Of those, 3,775 were in buildings with five or more units. The amount of infill taking place in Nashville is staggering. Since 2010 Davidson County has added 42,000 new residents which is like building two Hendersonvilles inside of Davidson County in one decade.
Good post, but I would correct one thing. The current population of Hendersonville is estimated at around 54,000. It is expected to exceed 60,000 by the next census.
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Old 09-01-2015, 05:24 PM
 
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Originally Posted by shinestx View Post
Good post, but I would correct one thing. The current population of Hendersonville is estimated at around 54,000. It is expected to exceed 60,000 by the next census.
That is correct. If Nashville grew by 42,000 from summer 2010 to summer 2014 that would be 42,000 in 4 years or 106,000 in 10 years.
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