Franklin or Mt. Juliet...maybe Hendersonville (Brentwood, Mount Juliet: for sale, new house, neighborhoods)

[Hey_Hey]

Originally Posted by Cards1988

Franklin:

Cons:
- questioning the price of homes. Would I get back what I paid for my house in 5-10 years? Has this area peaked?

I think of the suburban counties Williamson will fare the best in an economic downturn or correction. As opposed to Mt Juliet or Hendersonville, there is a jobs center located in the Cool Springs area that will drive housing demand on its own. Sumner and Wilson Counties don't really have that jobs center like Williamson or (obviously) Davidson. However, Williamson County has been the slowest appreciating county on a percentage basis for the last couple years. I get the feeling that Williamson is the slow and steady kind of market as opposed to the rapidly expanding Mt Juliet. The last housing correction taught us that the biggest dangers are in the further out suburbs and in newer subdivisions and neighborhoods. However, the other thing it taught us was that access to transit is a stabilizing force for real estate. In that regard, Mt Juliet far surpasses Williamson as the Music City Star runs through it (and I think we'll see much improved service over the next few years).

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by Hey_Hey

I think of the suburban counties Williamson will fare the best in an economic downturn or correction. As opposed to Mt Juliet or Hendersonville, there is a jobs center located in the Cool Springs area that will drive housing demand on its own. Sumner and Wilson Counties don't really have that jobs center like Williamson or (obviously) Davidson. However, Williamson County has been the slowest appreciating county on a percentage basis for the last couple years. I get the feeling that Williamson is the slow and steady kind of market as opposed to the rapidly expanding Mt Juliet. The last housing correction taught us that the biggest dangers are in the further out suburbs and in newer subdivisions and neighborhoods. However, the other thing it taught us was that access to transit is a stabilizing force for real estate. In that regard, Mt Juliet far surpasses Williamson as the Music City Star runs through it (and I think we'll see much improved service over the next few years).

I tend to agree with this. I think if the Nashville housing market cools, Williamson (especially Brentwood and Franklin) will fare decently well. More so than jobs, the schools reputation is what drives that market IMO. While Wilson and Sumner County schools aren't bad at all, they don't have the reputation that Williamson has.

I would say that if there is a BIG cooling off (as in, the in-migration drops off significantly), the most affected areas will be the urban neighborhoods in Nashville that have seen the largest price appreciation (especially those not fully gentrified). The old gentrified neighborhoods (southwest side of town) will probably do alright. The bigger "gambles" will probably see a big correction.

As far as suburbs go, I would think Mount Juliet would be in the middle of the road...maybe not see a dip or a correction, but perhaps more of a stagnation.

The question would be how long it would last, and I think that would depend on if there was a big shift in the economy that affects some of Nashville's major industries (such as healthcare or auto manufacturing), or if it is simply an oversaturation of housing units (supply catches up or starts to outpace demand).

[BirdieBelle]

Originally Posted by Edgefield D

Gas has always been higher in the Franklin area. I'm assuming it's a tax difference.

It's not the taxes. Gas station owners decide what price to charge, and they charge more because they can.

I fill up in Antioch, where it's routinely .20 cheaper per gallon.

OP, I think you should go with your gut.

[Cards1988]

Thanks for the input guys..I'm starting to get more and more confident on my decision. Thanks for letting me talk this out.


-Wouldn't Cool Springs be similar to the intersection of Briley Pkwy/i40 business park(s), which can't be but 10 min from Mt. Juliet?

-Wouldn't a transient community like Franklin be more impacted to a downturn in the economy as most of these people would just go to another city to find work? Wouldn't this create a mass sellof expensive homes nobody could afford? IMHO, this would impact a more transient community or a gentrified community, not a community with more natives to area, like Mt. Juliet seems to have. Locales/Natives would simply have more investment in a community I would think.

-Also, Franklin "boomed" far faster than Mt. Juliet looking at census figures from 2000-2014 in terms of sheer amount of people moving to a community. I'm not sure I understand the logic that Franklin is more established and will fare better in downturn.

-Lol..I still can't get over how cheap gas is in Wilson County. A billboard had it at 1.71 at one of the exits around Mt. Juliet. I did the math and found out that I would spend about $5,400 less on gas in 10yrs if I lived in Mt. Juliet..based on current gas prices.

Like I said, thank you so much for really making me think critically about my decisions. I value all of your opinions. This discussion has been great and has really made me think hard about this discussion.

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by Cards1988

-Wouldn't Cool Springs be similar to the intersection of Briley Pkwy/i40 business park(s), which can't be but 10 min from Mt. Juliet?

Ehh....not really. Yes, they are both business/office parks....so in that regard, they are similar. There is a decent amount of office space at the park you are referencing (Century City -- which is in Donelson). But in terms of size, Cool Springs is much bigger. And that may be 10 minutes or so of interstate travel from Mount Juliet -- during non-peak hours. But it's not going to be 10 minutes from your home during rush hour.

Originally Posted by Cards1988

-Wouldn't a transient community like Franklin be more impacted to a downturn in the economy as most of these people would just go to another city to find work? Wouldn't this create a mass sellof expensive homes nobody could afford? IMHO, this would impact a more transient community or a gentrified community, not a community with more natives to area, like Mt. Juliet seems to have. Locales/Natives would simply have more investment in a community I would think.

It depends on the downturn of the economy. Is the economic event localized, regional, or national? Btw...I'm not sure if I would call Franklin "transient" exactly. It is transplant heavy, but many if not most are there to stay. It's not transient in the same way that a place like Clarksville (which has a huge military population) is transient.

I get what you are saying, but I'm not sure I agree with the outcome you present. If you want to find an area with a lot of locals that have their heels dug into the community, then you should probably look for areas with a lot of older/retired folks.

I don't think locals or natives necessarily have more investment in the community. In some cases, yes, absolutely. In some cases, no. Think about it this way.....you're not going to be a local/native...does that mean you will not have investment in the community?

Originally Posted by Cards1988

-Also, Franklin "boomed" far faster than Mt. Juliet looking at census figures from 2000-2014 in terms of sheer amount of people moving to a community. I'm not sure I understand the logic that Franklin is more established and will fare better in downturn.

Franklin really boomed from 1990-2000. It grew by a similar number from 2000-2010...but the impact wasn't as drastic. The pace it is on (numbers wise) is very similar to the last two decades...so as a percentage, it's actually falling off a bit.

Franklin
1980 - 12,407
1990 - 20,098 +62.0%
2000 - 41,842 +108.2%
2010 - 62,487 +49.3%
2014 - 70,612 +13.0%*
2020** - 82,800 +32.5%

Mount Juliet
1980 - 2,879
1990 - 5,389 +87.2%
2000 - 12,366 +129.5%
2010 - 23,671 +91.4%
2014 - 29,387 +19.5%*
2020** - 37,961 +60.4%

*through 4 years of growth
**straight line growth number projection, not based on percentages

As you can see, Franklin's actual growth numbers are far superior to Mount Juliet's....but the percentage numbers are heavily in Mount Juliet's favor. The big difference is Franklin got its start a bit sooner. It is a county seat and has been a "town" since well before the Civil War. When suburbanization reached Franklin, it was already established. Mount Juliet was really no more than a junction before it started to balloon.

But I think you can also see a relative parallel between the two, about 20 years apart. Franklin in 1980-1990-2000 compared to Mount Juliet in 2000-2010-2020. I'm not saying Mount Juliet will be what Franklin is in 20 years, but population-wise, there are definitely some similarities.

Originally Posted by Cards1988

-Lol..I still can't get over how cheap gas is in Wilson County. A billboard had it at 1.71 at one of the exits around Mt. Juliet. I did the math and found out that I would spend about $5,400 less on gas in 10yrs if I lived in Mt. Juliet..based on current gas prices.

It IS very interesting that gas is less expensive on that side of town (also including Rutherford and Sumner Counties, as well as eastern Davidson County). It's no guarantee that it will stay that way forever....but that is where the gas wars have been.

Originally Posted by Cards1988

Like I said, thank you so much for really making me think critically about my decisions. I value all of your opinions. This discussion has been great and has really made me think hard about this discussion.

That is great. That is what we want people to do. Everybody has different opinions and perspectives to offer. The best thing you can do is weigh the options and make a decision based on what you think is best for you.

[bamaaviator]

My wife and I moved to Tenn just about 1 year ago and ended up in Hermitage. I like this area, but we will be moving to Hendersonville next month.

We basically have only been focusing on 2 communities in the area and that was between Hendersonville and Mt. Juliet. While I have not lived in either community yet, I feel Hendersonville is what we will like more as far as a community goes. We would drive to each community and besides the shopping area at Providence off of I-40, we really couldn't find anything else in Mt. Juliet. Now there may be a heck of a lot more area there, we just didn't find it and drove all around.

[BirdieBelle]

Originally Posted by Cards1988

-Wouldn't Cool Springs be similar to the intersection of Briley Pkwy/i40 business park(s), which can't be but 10 min from Mt. Juliet?

In what way do you see these as similar????

Franklin is NOT "going away" anytime soon. The combination of resident demographics, corporate relocations, low property taxes, business-friendly gov't and stellar school performance will ensure that.

And don't get distracted by the gas prices. That's not really the number on which you should be basing your search.

I mean, I'm not trying to talk you into moving to Williamson County. We have plenty of people already. You have to go with what works for you.

[titanspreds_04]

Ive been gone for a month and I miss this string of posts...lol.

Mt. Juliet is a great community. i know several people who take commuter rail and love it.

[shinestx]

Was just in Hendersonville last month, and the whole town pleasantly surprised me. I have known the town since I was a kid, and it never really had a core/center/soul. But one is forming, and not where you think... Indian Lake Village. I found it a little west of there... on the shores of Drakes Creek. I really think the city should focus on that area as its potential draw for residents and tourists. That lake is so nice now, with the fountains and the park. Plus, there are a couple of restaurants where you can get a drink. But overall, much should be done to make the west side of Drakes Creek as walkable and retail-oriented as the east side. Of course, I still really love the lakefront houses on both peninsulas.

That brings me to a question about Mt. Juliet... I really like it. And it has real potential to rival Brentwood. But why aren't there the spectacular lake homes (in abundance) like there are in Hendersonville? Or have I completely not seen them?

[BirdieBelle]

Originally Posted by shinestx

And it has real potential to rival Brentwood.

In what way?

Originally Posted by shinestx

But why aren't there the spectacular lake homes (in abundance) like there are in Hendersonville? Or have I completely not seen them?

Where are you expecting to see lake homes in Mt Juliet? The city limits don't really go near any large bodies of water, except for the very northern tip near Old Hickory Lake.