Real Estate Prices. Is the sky the limit?

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by septimus

To the OP. I've been in middle TN for 9 years now and I still wonder where all the money comes from. There can't be that many jobs in Nashville that pay $200k+ to afford all these $800k houses.

I found a list that shows Brentwood having almost 66% of households earning $100k+ and 32% earning $200k+. That's households, meaning combined income could be $200k+, which doesn't seem like a stretch in a well-educated area like Williamson Co.

I'm still looking for data that shows more data for the overall area.

[Hey_Hey]

Using Census data from 2012-13 shows that Davidson County has 19,730 households (7.7%) that make >$150,000. Williamson County has 16,338 households (24.6%) making >$150,000. That compares to the entire state having 148,904 households making >$150,000 (6%). Interestingly, almost 25% of all families in Tennessee making that kind of money live in either Williamson or Davidson Counties. The other counties surrounding Nashville have much lower rates of income at that level:

Cheatham - 649 (4.5%)
Sumner - 4894 (8%)
Wilson - 3321 (7.8%)
Rutherford -6019 (6.2%)

Of course, those families are not evening spread out in Davidson and Williamson Counties, either. The five highest median income census tracts in each county:

Davidson - Median Household income (total households making >$150,000):
186.01 (Forest Hills west of Hillsboro) - $179,167 (423)
186.02 (Forest Hills east of Hillsboro) - $155,417 (780)
187 (Oak Hill) - $135,625 (567)
185 (Belle Meade and portions of Nashville) - $134,455 (837)
184.08 (Portions of Bellevue) - $112,207 (241)

Williamson:
502.07 (Concord Rd to Wilson Pk b/w Raintree and Split Log - Governors Club, Hampton Res, Ravenwood HS) - $169,635 (615)
502.06 (South of Concord Rd b/w Wilson and Green Hill Blvd) - $162,708 (511)
504.4 (south of OHB on both sides of Hillsboro - LaurelBrooke, Stockett Creek, Old Natchez CC) - $161,591 (1132)
503.03 (South of OHB, east of Granny White) - $155,469 (489)
502.04 (north of Concord Rd, east of Edmonson, bordering the Davidson County line) - $153,321 (883)

In the Belle Meade and Forest Hills areas of Davidson and the northern sections of Brentwood, the majority of families make >$150,000. I would be interested knowing what the data is if Belle Meade's census tract did not also include nearby areas of Nashville.

[N.Cal]

Originally Posted by nashvols

I found a list that shows Brentwood having almost 66% of households earning $100k+ and 32% earning $200k+. That's households, meaning combined income could be $200k+, which doesn't seem like a stretch in a well-educated area like Williamson Co.

I'm still looking for data that shows more data for the overall area.

Plus, taking the equity you've built up in expensive cost-of-living cities and then moving here.

[mjtinmemphis]

Originally Posted by septimus

To the OP. I've been in middle TN for 9 years now and I still wonder where all the money comes from. There can't be that many jobs in Nashville that pay $200k+ to afford all these $800k houses.

Considering Nashville metro is over 1.5 million, it is not that far fetched to have an upscale suburb of around 50k residents with that type of income. If Brentwood was a city with over 100k residents like Plano, Tx. or Naperville Ill. it would be a little far fetched.

I am not familiar with real-estate prices in Nashville with the exception of I've heard they are high right now because of supply and demand. I don't think the demand will always out weigh the supply. It never does. The only high priced markets that sustains high real-estate prices are the ones with a lot of high end jobs like San Francisco and Washington D.C. I don't think Nashville is there yet.

[Hey_Hey]

I would disagree with the thought that Nashville is overpriced. It is much more expensive than its former peers (Memphis, Louisville, Birmingham) but Nashville has jumped peer groups and is pretty comparable with its new peer group (Charlotte, Austin, Tampa, Columbus, Portland, etc). Nashville's prices are still a far cry from the Bay Area, DC, Boston, NY, etc.

[bigcitymike]

Originally Posted by septimus

To the OP. I've been in middle TN for 9 years now and I still wonder where all the money comes from. There can't be that many jobs in Nashville that pay $200k+ to afford all these $800k houses.

My feeling is a lot of outside money has helped these houses bloom piecewise. I know of a few folks from CA that have moved to TN. They bought a $250K house in CA and sold it for $400K+. Depending on the area, CA prices have swung widely over the years. Profit like that offsets housing costs nicely when moving to a lower cost of living state.

And while a retiree might not buy an $800K, there seems to be many of them on this board looking for information about TN. I imagine most of them are downsizing from a big family home to something smaller, which would put extra $$ in their pocket too. It's much cheaper to retire in TN than many other states (no income tax or death tax as an example).