Is Columbia the next Franklin? (Clarksville, Murfreesboro: best town, 2015, apartment)

[shinestx]

30 minutes? Maybe on a good day. That far out is easily one hour on most days.

[CountryGirl2b=]

I know when Cool Springs started to be developed no one thought anyone would drive that far out, just to shop. People who live in downtown Nashville aren’t going to drive to June Lake so the distance doesn’t matter. I am sure it will blossom just like Cool Springs, given time.

[Shakeesha]

Columbia, likely not for reasons already mentioned. Spring Hill and Mt. Juliet seem to make the most sense. Both have high income demographics and massive mixed use developments underway or proposed. There is pent up demand for higher end retail, grocery, and residential options in the eastern portion of Nashville's metro. Spring Hill is an extension of Franklin. The developments and future infrastructure improvements are very telling of developers' bets on the growth of the area. I-65 needs to be widened all the way to the Columbia exit 46, which is where the southern portion of Nashville's reach ends.

[RiverGirl7]

Originally Posted by grdamin23

I’ve thought about this myself.

My guess is it will become a blue collar/middle class version of Franklin. Solid town with a great charm, but not going to attract the kind of higher end development that Brentwood (Maryland Farms), Franklin (Cool Springs/Berry Farms) and even Spring Hill (June Lake) are attracting. It just doesn’t have the base to support it right now (it’s pretty telling Columbia doesn’t even have stores like Target or Publix). The other issue is it’s further inland from the Interstate compared to Brentwood, Franklin and Spring Hill.

They say the upcoming June Lake development along I-65 in Spring Hill is about at the 30 minute mark from downtown, and that’s the farthest they want to go.

Your comment about the stores is spot on. Didn't think of that when I posted. I have a rule about checking where Whole Foods and stores on the level of Publix are or will be going in when checking out real estate. I don't know if there are any plans for that in Columbia area? Would be interesting to research.

[grdamin23]

Originally Posted by RiverGirl7

Your comment about the stores is spot on. Didn't think of that when I posted. I have a rule about checking where Whole Foods and stores on the level of Publix are or will be going in when checking out real estate. I don't know if there are any plans for that in Columbia area? Would be interesting to research.

There was talk of a Publix on the north side of town as part of a development of a hotel, but I have not heard any new news on that in a while. I also know they plan to redevelop the Columbia Mall, but I'm not sure what will go there.

The issue is Columbia isn't as high of an income area as Brentwood, Franklin and the Williamson County side of Spring Hill. I'm not sure how much the growth will change that. Most of the growth is coming from the far north side, which is the subdivisions just south of the GM plant in Spring Hill. Most of those folks are closer to the Crossings in Spring Hill as opposed to say, James Campbell Blvd in Columbia. However, a wild card could how much they can develop the area along Bear Creek Pike between Highway 31 and I-65.

It will be interesting to see what the next decade holds for the Spring Hill/Columbia area.

[nashvols]

First of all, the notion that there is "no more land to buy" in Williamson County is asinine. Full stop. Is the housing market a bit crazy? Sure. But that doesn't mean there are a lack of new housing options. It's more that demand is so high that builders can't keep up. It doesn't help that (especially Brentwood) zoning and approvals are a bit more stingy than they are in most other counties in the area (because they can). But there is plenty of available land, and plenty of construction going on. Williamson County will continue to be one of the top counties — in terms of population growth — in the Nashville Metro, for the foreseeable future.

In what ways do you see Columbia taking a similar track to Franklin? I think the main problem with the comparison is where Columbia ranks on the totem pole right now in terms of Nashville area suburbs.

Columbia is a large exurb on the periphery of the Nashville metro area. The trend of the growth moving south has primarily been fueled by cheaper housing further out — but that becomes less and less desirable as commute times increase. There is plenty of developable land much closer in to Nashville. That's why you are starting to see areas on the north side grow a bit. Columbia's biggest enemy is proximity. Franklin is closer to Nashville than Columbia is to....Franklin.

Columbia has been left in the dust in the past 40 years. 40 years ago it was the 4th largest city in Middle Tennessee (Nashville, Clarksville, Murfreesboro....and then Columbia). Now it is 10th...and will probably drop another spot or two in the coming decade.

It's not that Columbia doesn't have hope, or can't improve. But I think it is way, way behind a lot of other areas in the Nashville metro before we can start comparing it in any way to Franklin. The physical infrastructure — the downtown square, the road network, the regional medical center — those are the things Columbia shares in common with Franklin. Nothing that is connected to those bones is remotely similar.

I don't think there is a "next" Franklin just as I don't think there is a "next" Murfreesboro. Those two are major driving forces and I think some unique factors will prevent them from being replicated within the metro. But if I were to have to make an argument for the "next" Franklin, it would be Mount Juliet. Growth-wise and economics wise, it's arguably the best fit. It just lacks the physical comparisons in terms of infrastructure. Spring Hill fits that argument as well.

If there is a city that I see rising in status, that shares more of the physical characteristics of Franklin, that could make a pretty large physical transformation in the next 20 years, my money would be on Gallatin.

[JMT]

Originally Posted by nashvols

If there is a city that I see rising in status, that shares more of the physical characteristics of Franklin, that could make a pretty large physical transformation in the next 20 years, my money would be on Gallatin.

Gallatin really is growing like wildfire and has already surpassed Columbia in population, if Census estimates are accurate. It's certainly already surged past Columbia in retail developments and, thanks in large part to the announced $800 million Facebook data center and the hundreds of new homes on the way in dozens of new developments, it can be argued that Gallatin's rapid growth is just getting cranked up.

2010 population
Columbia : 34,681
Gallatin : 30,278

2019 etimates
Columbia : 40,335
Gallatin : 42,918

[Hankbills]

Originally Posted by JMT

Gallatin really is growing like wildfire and has already surpassed Columbia in population, if Census estimates are accurate. It's certainly already surged past Columbia in retail developments and, thanks in large part to the announced $800 million Facebook data center and the hundreds of new homes on the way in dozens of new developments, it can be argued that Gallatin's rapid growth is just getting cranked up.

2010 population
Columbia : 34,681
Gallatin : 30,278

2019 etimates
Columbia : 40,335
Gallatin : 42,918

I had no idea Gallatin was growing that fast. Where is it putting all this growth? Is this spillover from Hendersonville on the western side of Gallatin?

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by Hankbills

I had no idea Gallatin was growing that fast. Where is it putting all this growth? Is this spillover from Hendersonville on the western side of Gallatin?

I think a lot of the lakefront area, and the gap between Hendersonville and Gallatin are really starting to grow (with some higher density developments as well). There is also a lot of land along the newer section of Vietnam Veterans and the Gallatin exits there (Big Station Camp, Green Lea). But it's really all over town. Gallatin actually has a pretty good map showing public and private projects going on in the city.

https://www.gallatintn.gov/1722/New-...ts-in-Gallatin

[Hankbills]

Originally Posted by nashvols

I think a lot of the lakefront area, and the gap between Hendersonville and Gallatin are really starting to grow (with some higher density developments as well). There is also a lot of land along the newer section of Vietnam Veterans and the Gallatin exits there (Big Station Camp, Green Lea). But it's really all over town. Gallatin actually has a pretty good map showing public and private projects going on in the city.

https://www.gallatintn.gov/1722/New-...ts-in-Gallatin

That's really cool! That is a lot of growth. A good amount of apartments and high density items.

For what its worth I found one for Mt. Juliet. Its similar but with maybe more renderings and less information about each project. Still pretty cool.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapTour/...26c6f4ac71#map