Weather forecasters have no clue... (Grand Island, Kearney: home, buy, live)

[Bigg Mann]

Last week here in southwest NE we had a forecast of winter storm warning and 5 to 7 inches of snow possible. Nothing happened and not a word about why it did not happen.

Now out of nowhere they say yesterday we might get a few flurries and at the most a light dusting.

WRONG! We have over an inch on ground and streets covered in white stuff and it has been snowing heavy for over an hour.

I thought all the fancy radars were supposed to help in seeing storm clouds. Good thing we did not plan our Ogalala trip today but did it yesterday.

[psulions2007]

Originally Posted by Bigg Mann

Last week here in southwest NE we had a forecast of winter storm warning and 5 to 7 inches of snow possible. Nothing happened and not a word about why it did not happen.

Now out of nowhere they say yesterday we might get a few flurries and at the most a light dusting.

WRONG! We have over an inch on ground and streets covered in white stuff and it has been snowing heavy for over an hour.

I thought all the fancy radars were supposed to help in seeing storm clouds. Good thing we did not plan our Ogalala trip today but did it yesterday.

If you knew anything about weather forecasting, you know that it is not an exact science and that it is impossible to predict with 100% accuracy due to chaos theory. Also, southwestern Nebraska is one of the most difficult locations to forecast since you are in the lee of the Rockies... and the formation of low pressure systems in the lee of mountains is one of the most unpredictable parts of atmospheric science still.

[Gunluvver2]

Back in the 1970's I was driving a delivery truck out of York, NE. One Spring day I had left the plant at York at arounjd 7:00 AM for Grand Island. I had three stops in GI with Hastings, Holdrege and Kearney for the rest of the run. At about 8:30 AM I was leaving the first drop in GI and the sun was shining. By the time I had finished my third drop at about 10:00 AM it was snowing and blowing. I started for Hastings but by the time I got to I-80 it was a full scale blizzard. I stopped at the Holiday Inn at the GI I-80 Interchange to call in and get permission to stay at the Holiday Inn. The boss back in York told me I was crazy. He was looking out the window and it was Blue Sky. I told him to walk out of his office to the West side of the building and look at the sky. I called back twenty minutes later and he said it was a blizzard in York. They immediately shut down production so they could get everybody home before the roads closed. He gladly paid for my room & meals because without my call he would have had to keep everyone at the plant and pay overtime for three shifts. The Spring Blizzard left hundreds stranded but I was in a toasty warm room with a bar and Coffee shop down the hall and the Boss Man footing the bill. Twelve inches of snow in a few hours whipped around by 60 MPH winds makes a heckuva mess. But that is life in Nebraska.

GL2

[MICHAEL J]

Originally Posted by Bigg Mann

Last week here in southwest NE we had a forecast of winter storm warning and 5 to 7 inches of snow possible. Nothing happened and not a word about why it did not happen.

Now out of nowhere they say yesterday we might get a few flurries and at the most a light dusting.

WRONG! We have over an inch on ground and streets covered in white stuff and it has been snowing heavy for over an hour.

I thought all the fancy radars were supposed to help in seeing storm clouds. Good thing we did not plan our Ogalala trip today but did it yesterday.

Does that place any doubt in your mind about how accurate the global warming predictions are ? Just sayin.

[itsMeFred]

This indicates a confusion between "climate" and "weather"...

[MICHAEL J]

Originally Posted by itsMeFred

This indicates a confusion between "climate" and "weather"...

Actually, the confusion lies in trying to predict how climate change affects the weather, and those predictions seem to be quite dynamic. Assuming of course, you buy into the "theory" of global warming - no wait, they changed if from global warming to climate change. Are they still calling it climate change, or has that changed now?

[JustMe_T3K]

You may want to change your source of weather info.
wunderground.com
theweatherchannel.com
accuweather.com

some choices

[itsMeFred]

Originally Posted by MICHAEL J

Actually, the confusion lies in trying to predict how climate change affects the weather, and those predictions seem to be quite dynamic. Assuming of course, you buy into the "theory" of global warming - no wait, they changed if from global warming to climate change. Are they still calling it climate change, or has that changed now?

Both.
However, again, this indicates a confusion of what we're talking about.

Global warming IS global climate change.
The general shift has been to use the term "global climate change" because people can't seem to understand that just because the earth is getting warmer doesn't mean their own little corner of it will.
In some places the climate will warm, in others, it will cool. Others will dry out, others will get wetter...

The crazy winter that the British Isles had last year, is exemplary of what global warming is expected to do. Yet people seem to think that because that specific area was colder it must mean the globe as a whole is no longer warming. They don't really understand the macro vs. micro effects.

BTW, there's really no disagreement about the fact that the earth is warming, the disagreement is about what's causing it and whether it's normal or not.

Also, day to day meteorology (that is, what shows up on the weather channel on a Tuesday morning) has nothing to do with global warming, climates or anything else.
It's a (relatively) straight-forward science based only on what is present in front of the satellite at any given time and what is known of existing patterns of jet streams, ocean current, etc.

[MICHAEL J]

Originally Posted by itsMeFred

Both.
However, again, this indicates a confusion of what we're talking about.

Global warming IS global climate change.
The general shift has been to use the term "global climate change" because people can't seem to understand that just because the earth is getting warmer doesn't mean their own little corner of it will.
In some places the climate will warm, in others, it will cool. Others will dry out, others will get wetter...

The crazy winter that the British Isles had last year, is exemplary of what global warming is expected to do. Yet people seem to think that because that specific area was colder it must mean the globe as a whole is no longer warming. They don't really understand the macro vs. micro effects.

BTW, there's really no disagreement about the fact that the earth is warming, the disagreement is about what's causing it and whether it's normal or not.

Also, day to day meteorology (that is, what shows up on the weather channel on a Tuesday morning) has nothing to do with global warming, climates or anything else.
It's a (relatively) straight-forward science based only on what is present in front of the satellite at any given time and what is known of existing patterns of jet streams, ocean current, etc.

You missed my point Fred. I was simply trying to point out the absurdity of the long term predictions of climate change, or global warming, whatever the term is today, by illustrating the fact that the weather cannot even be accurately predicted 24 – 48 hrs into the future. Not necessarily trying to debate whether climate change is occurring

“In some places the climate will warm, in others, it will cool. Others will dry out, others will get wetter... “

Funny isn’t it, been doing that since the beginning of time. I was around in the 70’s when the “experts” were predicting an ice age.

As Reported by National Public Radio:

80 percent to 90 percent of global warming involves heating up ocean waters. They hold much more heat than the atmosphere can. So Willis has been studying the ocean with a fleet of robotic instruments called the Argo system. The buoys can dive 3,000 feet down and measure ocean temperature. Since the system was fully deployed in 2003, it has recorded no warming of the global oceans. “There has been a very slight cooling, but not anything really significant," Willis says.

By the way, it’s been cooling significantly here for the past two weeks; I think it’s called “winter”

[itsMeFred]

You missed my point Fred. I was simply trying to point out the absurdity of the long term predictions of climate change, or global warming, whatever the term is today, by illustrating the fact that the weather cannot even be accurately predicted 24 – 48 hrs into the future. Not necessarily trying to debate whether climate change is occurring

Not at all. I understood your point perfectly, which is why I said you were confusing "weather" and "climate."


You're comparing apples and steel-belted tires.