Winter of 2009/10- your predictions? (Manchester, Concord: unemployed, contractors, living)

[BF66389]

In 2007/08 we had record snowfall in the southern part of the state. In 2008/09 we had a record ice storm. What does everyone thing we are in for this year?

My prediction is we'll get a circling storm off the coast that brings us several days of moderate-heavy snowfall resulting in a pretty big snow accumulation for the storm or perhaps a big nor 'easter like; but otherwise moderate snow/warmer temperatures.

...I am 95% sure I will be wrong in my prediction. However whatever happens will be something that a good snow-throwing tractor, generator, and roof repairs will not be all that helpful for

[Katlakat]

I feel like we'll have more ice than snow this year. Just a feeling....

[GraniteStater]

Once we move into the actual "winter" season I have a feeling the snow will start coming in a big kind of way. For the next week or two expect seasonal temperatures with a couple of coastal storms. The big key is the warm sea surface temps out in the Atlantic. As long as that warmth is out there, the coastal lows will try to draw up warmer temps from the south and take the "outside track" closer to the coast. As the air upstream gets colder, we tend to get more "inside tracking" storms that give us a good amount of snow. In summary, I expect about average temps this upcoming winter with fairly typical snowfall quantities.

[BriInNH]

Looks to me like a fading El-Nino Jan-Mar, but that may be slow to occur. It really warmed up quite a bit through Oct and Nov to close to moderate levels.

Other indicators like the PDO and EPO alongside the El-Nino ( fading? ) push for colder than normal early december, followed by moderating AND more subtropical jet interaction later in the month...which would mean wetter and warmer, but this is new england and that could bring snow especially further NW than the cities.

MJO will have to be followed as well.....phase 7-8 soon might mean some interesting weather Dec 10-20th...

My guess winter 2009-2010

Precip -

December January February March
normal || normal-abv || abv || normal

Temps -

December January February March
normal-above || below || below || normal
0 to +1.5 -1 to -2 -1 to -2 -1 to 0

And last but not least SNOWFALL (which is by far the most difficult to predict and mostly luck rather than skill)

December January February March
normal || normal-above|| above || normal

Select cities :

Portsmouth - 62"
Manchester - 75"
Concord - 81"
Keene - 92"
Lebanon -77"
Laconia -86"
Conway -100"
Lincoln -103"
Lancaster -108"
Jackson -115"

[bignhfamily]

Think snow!!!
Our state depends on it. There are a lot of unemployed or under employed contractors that stayed busy the last couple of winters moving snow. The ski areas also rely on great snow to stay busy and provide jobs. Snowmobiling too, and the trickle down effect from these winter activities contributes greatly to our economy.
Come on snow!

[GregW]

I expect, as I haven't memorized the Old Farmer's Almanac yet, a mild winter with more sleet and freezing rain than really deep snow. I think we will have a very severe ice storm in mid January in southern NH at the same time as a major blizzard in the Mountains. Be prepared for blocked roads and multiday power outages.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by GregW

I expect, as I haven't memorized the Old Farmer's Almanac yet, a mild winter with more sleet and freezing rain than really deep snow. I think we will have a very severe ice storm in mid January in southern NH at the same time as a major blizzard in the Mountains. Be prepared for blocked roads and multiday power outages.

I am not sure I agree with your mid January ice storm prediction. Based on the tanking NAO and AO indicies, it would appear that it will get much colder in the eastern US over the next few weeks. While it would appear that winter is starting off slow due to the mild November, I am expecting near average snowfall amounts in most areas of NH in December. I could be wrong and it may be mild due to the subtropical jet taking over through enhanced El Nino influences. It is a complex pattern setting up this winter for sure. I am sticking with my general prediction of near average temperatures and snowfall for most areas of NH this winter, though.

[GotBackHome]

I"m hoping that winter isn't too bad in Monadnock - at least not until late Feb! We'd like to come up for a little bit in mid Feb, but I don't know how we'll get into our unplowed driveway if it's bad. we'd really like to see our new furniture though.

[BriInNH]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

I am not sure I agree with your mid January ice storm prediction. Based on the tanking NAO and AO indicies, it would appear that it will get much colder in the eastern US over the next few weeks. While it would appear that winter is starting off slow due to the mild November, I am expecting near average snowfall amounts in most areas of NH in December. I could be wrong and it may be mild due to the subtropical jet taking over through enhanced El Nino influences. It is a complex pattern setting up this winter for sure. I am sticking with my general prediction of near average temperatures and snowfall for most areas of NH this winter, though.

I agree with this at least as far as December. This winter, overall, we are going to need help from the pacific to get a bonafide ski season such as previous years.

The -NAO is probably going to head negative, and we might get a storm from that initial phase change Dec 8-12th, but I'm personally still liking Dec 15th-20th especially considering Heather Archambaults research which primarily deals with high precip events following rises in NAO. Might be a coastal hugger or even inland runner!

[GregW]

You guys are scary. You use actual data. I was just guessing based on living here for 25+ years.