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Old 11-30-2011, 08:15 AM
 
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I've been reading a lot in the past couple years on how the "far out" suburbs (exurbs) are on the decline nationally and seen predictions on how the inner ring suburbs and cities will grow and prosper more, notably a reverse from the urban decay of the mid 20th century.

The Atlantic Monthly's "Cities" blog cites this a lot and a recent Op-Ed in the NY Times discussed it too, even using Philadelphia as an example of this trend.

The breakdown of these theories is that cities and their inner ring suburbs that are walkable, have nice downtowns and public transportation are where the younger, educated, highly skilled workers and their families will be moving over the next decade and into the future.

The arguments are many: inner ring suburbs and cities are greener, the public transportation is much better for the environment. Educated workers care more about that, like having bike paths or access to better restaurants. There are also hidden costs of sprawl, long car commutes are vulnerable to gas price shocks and car repairs. The commute blog of Atlantic is here.

Now that gets me to NJ, which I think is unique because it's small, where the whole state is nearly all suburbs for Philly, Trenton/ Princeton & NYC.

In this sense, NJ is basically a sprawl state AND a place of many inner ring suburbs, and I think in some cases we've been more immune to many of the shocks of exurb sprawl in other states.

If the future is in more sustainable, walkable cities then what towns in South Jersey will be the winners and losers?

Winners:

Those on the PATCO line:

Collingswood - We can already see this. The economy might have slowed the changing neighborhood a little, but it's likely to eventually have appreciating home values.

Haddon Twp. - More space than Collingswood

Haddonfield - This town has had so many advantages for years and it continues.

Voorhees

Others?

Possible Losers:

Many of the M town suburbs, Moorestown, Marlton, Medford, Mt. Laurel, Maple Shade - I know Moorestown won Money Magazine's best place to live back in like 2007, but I don't know what holds in the future for these towns far enough away from public transportation. Yeah, some are walkable, but what would be an argument for their continued prosperity? Their pluses is that they have land and I still think (despite the above writers' predictions) they will continue to flourish in the future.

Dark Horses:

Cherry Hill. While having a NJ Transit stop and a commuter PATCO one, much of Cherry Hill is typical of NJ, crowded roads, shopping center and malls. Many of the above writers predict that many of us will be shopping in downtowns more and malls are going the way of the dinosaur.

Towns on the River Line:

Towns like Riverton are very different from say Palmyra and Delanco, but these towns will be very interesting to watch.

Now that gets me back to NJ, a state that is famous for its suburbs and malls. Do we just not apply to this new trend?

Last edited by Cherno; 11-30-2011 at 09:22 AM..
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Old 11-30-2011, 08:59 AM
 
Location: Murphy, NC
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Probably the ones with least competition. I like the M towns. I also like cumberland, cape may, atlantic.
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Old 11-30-2011, 09:45 AM
 
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Quote:
I like the M towns. I also like cumberland, cape may, atlantic.
I actually am very worried for Cumberland, Cape May & Atlantic. Cumberland is already the poorest county in the entire state. And if Atlantic City continues its decline, things will be very bad for Atlantic county.
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Old 11-30-2011, 10:01 AM
 
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There is a lot to discuss on this topic, I think I'm just going to bullet point some of my ideas to make break it down by concept.

Schools - Beyond all other considerations, people with children want good schools. You can see it time and time again on these forums where people are looking for housing and their primary consideration is the school district. While there are inner-ring areas with decent to good schools, the majority of the top school districts all lie in areas that would be defined as exurbs. Certainly school districts improve when you have influxes of educated people into a town who prize education, but it is also true that it is generally a situation where good schools generally always remain good schools because they continue to attract people who value education.

Value - People are extremely value conscious these days and are generally looking for the greatest bang for their buck. Since owning a car is a virtual necessity regardless of where you live with the exception being the actual city, what we are really talking about is commuting cost versus housing cost. Inner-ring areas generally have smaller, older housing on smaller lots in denser concentrations. When one has a choice between a 1,500 sq.ft. 3BR, 1BA house (typical for a town like Collingswood) or could buy a much newer 2,000 sq.ft. 3BR, 2.5BA house (typical in the further out suburbs) for roughly the same cost and tax liability with the trade off being adding 10 miles to their commute (equals about $30 a month in gas getting 25MPG and paying $3.50 a gallon), I think most people would default to the larger home and slightly longer commute, especially if it came with a better school district. For reference, 10 miles is about the distance from Collingswood to Moorestown/Marlton/Mount Laurel.

Mall vs. Main Street - I doubt we will ever see the death of the shopping mall and other large retail strip centers. The main reason for this is that it is virtually impossible for even a vibrant downtown to provide everything people want to buy and in the variety and price they expect. Malls concentrate the shopping into a small destination area and make it possible for large numbers of people to access the same stores. Like it or not national retailers are the kings and small businesses and mom and pop shops serve a more complimentary role. If the mall ceased to exist, where would you locate the large number of national retail chains that form the bulk of peoples shopping? Traditional downtowns don't have the space, parking or access to support those kinds of stores. Then you have the issue of no single downtown being able to provide the same level of variety. The argument of convenience and savings from walkability is bunk as you simply wouldn't be able to walk to everything and the cost of goods distribution to non-centralized locations would create an increase in the price of goods offsetting the minor savings from not driving 10 minutes to the mall.

Space - Since virtually all inner ring suburbs are built out there is only so much capacity available for people to settle. This ties back into the value argument. As more and more people move into the inner ring suburbs it will place a demand on housing which increases prices. The only alternative for the towns to continue to grow is to revert to higher and higher density housing, which then goes back to the large single family home 10 miles in the exurb with a yard and driveway versus the row home in the inner ring, all for roughly the same price, or even less in the exurb.

What is an Exurb? - By the common definition a lot of towns in South Jersey are considered exurbs, however, in many places exurbs don't really exist until you are pushing 30 miles from a major city/employment center. By distance the bulk of South Jersey's towns are well within what most areas would consider inner ring. Then the delineating factor seems to become access to public transit. So, are we really talking about surburban sprawl vs. urban or are we talking about access to public transit? Moorestown is closer to Philadelphia than many PA suburbs that are served by SEPTA and is much closer than many NYC suburbs in NJ served by NJ Transit. Therefore what makes Moorestown more of an exurb is the lack of access to public transit into the employment centers. They are now planning to expand PATCO/RiverLine down to Pitman/Glassboro, will those areas now magically turn from exurb to inner ring? I think the key in this area is "Smart Growth" which involves expansion of transit access.

Is the trend really real? - Tough question to answer, it certainly is in some places and there are certainly groups of people who enjoy gentrification and green living, however, is the trend shown by this group representative of all? Gloucester County was the fastest growing county in South Jersey over the last decade with the bulk of the growth happening in what are decidedly exurbs, but with good schools, decent infrastucture and easy highway access. The fastest growing township in the state was Woolwich which grew over 250% in the past decade and is still growing while being a decidedly rural area.
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Old 11-30-2011, 10:32 AM
 
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Good points NJGOAT:

On schools, with Christie pushing for vouchers and charter schools, I think there is more freedom than just to be tied to your zip code as has been in the past. So I think the school part is changing or at least modifying slightly where the people who know the system can find good schools for their kids outside of their neighborhoods if they want.

I agree on value and space - but people with smaller homes could just start using their public parks more. That's how it used to be. And it's what you see in smart growth cities like Austin and Portland.

On malls, look at the Burlington Center Mall, that one I think is first to go in the area. But I agree, New Jersey has always been famous for malls, which I why I think we're different here.

I also agree defining an exurb is tough. What exactly is "inner ring" is is just public transportation or commuting time? Your Moorestown definitions are well thought out and I believe you sum it up the problems of labeling here.

David Brooks of the NY Times in On Paradise Drive uses Ocean County as an example of an exurb. I know even though it is in the lower 8 counties, we don't call it South Jersey because it is populated by the North Jersey people who fled the decay of Essex, Union, Hudson, Passaic & Bergen. Ocean County is an exurb, Toms River's swelling population is an example and I believe some parts of Gloucester, Camden and Burlington fit the bill as well.

My point is that I would not invest in a house in these areas defined as an exurb. I believe it is much smarter to buy in the Collingswood, Rivertons, etc. if you are looking for your dollar to pay off in the future. I'm trying to imagine this area in 20 years. What do we think it will look like?

Quote:
They are now planning to expand PATCO/RiverLine down to Pitman/Glassboro, will those areas now magically turn from exurb to inner ring?
I will be watching this development very closely. I think it will make Pitman especially a high demand town. It's already got Rowen close by and has a cool old movie theater.
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Old 11-30-2011, 10:42 AM
 
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I also think another important point is generations. I'm in my 30s and I think that people my age and in their 20s now (a lot, certainly not all) will want different things than the neighborhoods we grew up in.
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Old 11-30-2011, 11:29 AM
 
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cherno View Post
I've been reading a lot in the past couple years on how the "far out" suburbs (exurbs) are on the decline nationally and seen predictions on how the inner ring suburbs and cities will grow and prosper more, notably a reverse from the urban decay of the mid 20th century.

The Atlantic Monthly's "Cities" blog cites this a lot and a recent Op-Ed in the NY Times discussed it too, even using Philadelphia as an example of this trend.

The breakdown of these theories is that cities and their inner ring suburbs that are walkable, have nice downtowns and public transportation are where the younger, educated, highly skilled workers and their families will be moving over the next decade and into the future.

The arguments are many: inner ring suburbs and cities are greener, the public transportation is much better for the environment. Educated workers care more about that, like having bike paths or access to better restaurants. There are also hidden costs of sprawl, long car commutes are vulnerable to gas price shocks and car repairs. The commute blog of Atlantic is here.

Now that gets me to NJ, which I think is unique because it's small, where the whole state is nearly all suburbs for Philly, Trenton/ Princeton & NYC.

In this sense, NJ is basically a sprawl state AND a place of many inner ring suburbs, and I think in some cases we've been more immune to many of the shocks of exurb sprawl in other states.

If the future is in more sustainable, walkable cities then what towns in South Jersey will be the winners and losers?

Winners:

Those on the PATCO line:

Collingswood - We can already see this. The economy might have slowed the changing neighborhood a little, but it's likely to eventually have appreciating home values.

Haddon Twp. - More space than Collingswood

Haddonfield - This town has had so many advantages for years and it continues.

Voorhees

Others?

Possible Losers:

Many of the M town suburbs, Moorestown, Marlton, Medford, Mt. Laurel, Maple Shade - I know Moorestown won Money Magazine's best place to live back in like 2007, but I don't know what holds in the future for these towns far enough away from public transportation. Yeah, some are walkable, but what would be an argument for their continued prosperity? Their pluses is that they have land and I still think (despite the above writers' predictions) they will continue to flourish in the future.

Dark Horses:

Cherry Hill. While having a NJ Transit stop and a commuter PATCO one, much of Cherry Hill is typical of NJ, crowded roads, shopping center and malls. Many of the above writers predict that many of us will be shopping in downtowns more and malls are going the way of the dinosaur.

Towns on the River Line:

Towns like Riverton are very different from say Palmyra and Delanco, but these towns will be very interesting to watch.

Now that gets me back to NJ, a state that is famous for its suburbs and malls. Do we just not apply to this new trend?
This looks better on paper than reality. There are a lot of factors involved, the biggest factor is schools.
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Old 11-30-2011, 03:11 PM
 
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Quote:
On schools, with Christie pushing for vouchers and charter schools, I think there is more freedom than just to be tied to your zip code as has been in the past. So I think the school part is changing or at least modifying slightly where the people who know the system can find good schools for their kids outside of their neighborhoods if they want.
If you have kids today that are about to enter or are in school, are you going to roll the dice on being able to secure a voucher to send them to a decent school or rely on the possibility that a charter school opens and you get a slot...or are you going to buy in a town you know has good schools?

While on paper the changes seem to open up choice, they really don't in practice as the vouchers only work on a reciprocating basis where one district has kids who want to go and another district agress that they will accept the students. There are very few good districts with the space to participate.

As long as "home rule" remains ingrained in NJ culture of government and education there will continue to be obvious differences between districts that people with children will primarily base their housing choice upon. Give me the cheapest house that meets my needs/wants in the town with the best school district that I can afford. Until these differences are eliminated through consolidation or county schools, people simply won't choose to move to areas with poor schools just because it is the more socially responsible thing to do.

School district structure and quality is one of the MAJOR differences between NJ and other areas where this phenomenon is happening.

Quote:
I agree on value and space - but people with smaller homes could just start using their public parks more. That's how it used to be. And it's what you see in smart growth cities like Austin and Portland.
Do you have kids? I only ask because as a parent of 3 the notion of going to the park everytime my kid wants to play outside sounds decent in theory, but in practice is very hard to do. Not that kids will suffer not having a yard, but it is a great amenity to have. This applies for pet owners as well. Would you enjoy always having to walk the dog or just letting them out into the yard when nature called? I think people generally prefer space, but give it up when the other benefits outweigh having it.

Not to mention that the suburb vs. urban setup in Austin and Portland are VERY different to the ones in South Jersey. In Austin in particular, living in a suburb might mean you are 25 miles outside of the city.

Quote:
On malls, look at the Burlington Center Mall, that one I think is first to go in the area. But I agree, New Jersey has always been famous for malls, which I why I think we're different here.
The Burlington Mall is pretty much the answer to a question no one asked. The issue there is that there really isn't the population to support it and because of that it could never draw the anchors and other retailers that make malls like Cherry Hill succesful. Certainly some malls would be casualties no one would notice, but I seriously doubt we will see the death of the mall anytime soon.

In fact, malls make great sense if we are talking about a society served primarily by public transit. Transit is great at moving large numbers of people from A to B, but really bad at moving small groups of people to disparate destinations.

Quote:
I also agree defining an exurb is tough. What exactly is "inner ring" is is just public transportation or commuting time? Your Moorestown definitions are well thought out and I believe you sum it up the problems of labeling here.
I think transit access is the best definition. If we took North Jersey's transit system and overlayed it into South Jersey, pretty much all of Burlington, Gloucester and Camden Counties would turn into easily commutable inner ring suburbs.

Quote:
David Brooks of the NY Times in On Paradise Drive uses Ocean County as an example of an exurb. I know even though it is in the lower 8 counties, we don't call it South Jersey because it is populated by the North Jersey people who fled the decay of Essex, Union, Hudson, Passaic & Bergen. Ocean County is an exurb, Toms River's swelling population is an example and I believe some parts of Gloucester, Camden and Burlington fit the bill as well.
I think Ocean County is a great example of an exurb, but I have a hard time applying that to the three main South Jersey counties. They can fit the definition, but we are talking a vast difference in distance to get to major employment centers from say, southeast Gloucester County to Philly then we are when talking about going from Toms River to NYC.

Quote:
My point is that I would not invest in a house in these areas defined as an exurb. I believe it is much smarter to buy in the Collingswood, Rivertons, etc. if you are looking for your dollar to pay off in the future. I'm trying to imagine this area in 20 years. What do we think it will look like?
You may ultimately be right in terms of "paying off", but I don't think we will see the death of the areas you are defining as exurb simply because they aren't really located at distances that impart exurb.

I think what we will see is a "filling in" versus continual expansion out. Areas that are already established and grew significantly in the last decade won't die off, but they will most likely level off and fill in. I think we will also see a change in the types of homes being built from large McMansions to smaller more efficient homes, but still just as high end. I think new developments will be more transit oriented and there will be a lot of pressure to expand transit offerings.

The interesting thing I have personally seen is that there is nothing really "special" about towns like Collingswood and Riverton. They are largely the same towns they have always been and will most likely continue to be. Collingswood benefitted greatly from the housing boom and "renaissance" that helped transform the downtown, but underneath Collingswood is still the same town it has always been with the same types of people. Over my 30+ years of life, most of which was in Collingswood, I haven't really seen much change despite what the propaganda says and I don't think it will change much. Towns like that may ultimately become more in demand, but I think the "trend" is not necessarily representative of the whole. For instance, there is a lot of real estate sitting for sale in Collingswood, where as houses in my town (Logan, near Swedesboro) tend to sell rather rapidly. You also see plenty of real estate for cheap in towns like Pennsauken, but no one is urban pioneering their way over there.

Quote:
I will be watching this development very closely. I think it will make Pitman especially a high demand town. It's already got Rowen close by and has a cool old movie theater.
I think the expanded rail line will just cement what Pitman already has, which is a solid town with a good school district.

Quote:
I also think another important point is generations. I'm in my 30s and I think that people my age and in their 20s now (a lot, certainly not all) will want different things than the neighborhoods we grew up in.
Tough to say, we're in the same generation. I'm in my early 30's and my wife is in her late 20's. We chose to live in Logan Twp. versus many of the other options we had because we wanted a quieter more rural environment that still afforded us excellent schools. The fact that we got more house for our money and have very low taxes was just icing on the cake. Many people in my neighborhood are in our demographic and bought there for the same reasons.

Out of friends I have that have bought homes, most have tended to buy in the Cherry Hill, Marlton, Mount Laurel area. I know very few people who are at the point of starting a family that are choosing to go the true inner ring suburb route.
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Old 11-30-2011, 03:43 PM
 
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Good analysis as always NJGOAT.

Quote:
Do you have kids? I only ask because as a parent of 3 the notion of going to the park everytime my kid wants to play outside sounds decent in theory, but in practice is very hard to do.
One in the oven. We actually live in Lambertville now, which I would rate as very desirable, walkable with private bus transportation to NYC & two rail lines close to Philly, but not close enough (one of my biggest complaints). Major use of parks, tons of young couples with children who mingle with retirees and same sex couples as well. The D&R Canal is a haven for dogs as I am reminded on my daily runs. The spouse moved from Edgewater Park, but still works in that area and we may have to move further to South Jersey if I relocate my job. So, with two parks in a small geographic town and miles of the canal path north and south, I see a pretty vibrant community where parents sacrifice the space of a yard for the close knit community that comes with saying "hi" to your neighbors everyday and chilling on your porch. However, I also know Lambertville/ New Hope is unique.

Quote:
You may ultimately be right in terms of "paying off", but I don't think we will see the death of the areas you are defining as exurb simply because they aren't really located at distances that impart exurb.
That's what I'm trying to rattle my head around. I'm much less optimistic on Salem, Cumberland, Atlantic & even Cape May. But maybe you're right. Maybe Gloucester, Camden & Burlington are all close enough to be immune from what defines an "exurb."

Quote:
I think we will also see a change in the types of homes being built from large McMansions to smaller more efficient homes, but still just as high end. I think new developments will be more transit oriented and there will be a lot of pressure to expand transit offerings.
I know some greenies that are particularly worried about the sprawl that will creep up along the Gloucester rail line. While I think it is a win, with less cars on the road, they just see loss of more open land.

Quote:
The interesting thing I have personally seen is that there is nothing really "special" about towns like Collingswood and Riverton
Now you're talking! That's the unanswered question here. What Richard Florida and many other of these "move back to the city centers" advocates have been saying is that a "creative class" of workers will populate certain towns and make them into something special. But the people who prefer that vibe will simply move to Philly, right? However, if they want something in between Moorestown and Philly, I see Collingswood and Riverton as nice compromise towns, maybe it should be their motto?

Small town charm with a big city feeling.

And I think maybe their lack of alcohol sales might contribute to the fact they're not "special" because, for instance, you can't have a cool live music joint in a dry town. However, I also believe there would be some who would argue these towns are nice because they don't have alcohol.

Quote:
Tough to say, we're in the same generation. I'm in my early 30's and my wife is in her late 20's. We chose to live in Logan Twp. versus many of the other options we had because we wanted a quieter more rural environment that still afforded us excellent schools. The fact that we got more house for our money and have very low taxes was just icing on the cake. Many people in my neighborhood are in our demographic and bought there for the same reasons.
I think you can have it both ways vis-à-vis the inner ring suburbs and schools. I taught in NJ public schools for over 10 years, two great districts as well: one in South Jersey and one in North. However, I went to what many would consider to be an average to bad school district, in Central Jersey. I experienced some bumps and bruises along my schooling in some respects, but turned out fine.

As a former teacher, I've also realized every town has their version of the "boogie man." In some districts it's drug use at the HS. In others, it's gang violence. In some of the "better" school districts, I've witnessed some fine examples of class snobbery where status is everything, then dealt with the bullying that results from it. it's enough to turn me away from the higher end districts in NJ. Well I shouldn't say "turn me away" but I don't think I have to pay over $10,000 in property taxes to get my child a good education in NJ . . . and I mean a high-end quality education too.

Nearly any kid could go to most of the NJ schools in the CD to J School District Factor range and be fine. If the home has a lot of books, is wired, dinner table conversations are abundant and the parents build a child's curiosity about the world, then they will be fine and get into a good school regardless of where they go. . . as long as the parents have a plan. Mine did. However, sometimes a kid's personality may require a more comforting environment that a wealthier district can better provide. I just don't think that's that large of a school age demographic.

Last edited by Cherno; 11-30-2011 at 04:04 PM..
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Old 11-30-2011, 04:42 PM
 
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Great thread. As GOAT mentioned, the thing nobody realizes about South Jersey is just how compact and close it is to Philly. Even Hammonton is only about 40-45 minutes from the city. A lot of people in the NYC and DC metros would kill for that commute. Therefore, I think it's safe to classify most towns around here as "inner-ring", though they might not qualify as one in terms of their built environment, since most are so sprawly.

Looking forward, I think we are going to see a lot of wealth redistribution, but in both directions. More wealth will go to the city, while more poverty will come to the burbs. However, some poverty will remain in the city and some wealth will remain in the suburbs. Gone are the days when city=poor, suburb=rich. Honestly, I think it is going to come down to luck for some of these towns because there are so many variables involved. For example, there's no particular reason for Lindenwold to be as messed up as it is today... it just is.

If the trend of walkable communities continues, and demand is great enough (this actually depends a lot on how well Philly is doing, because we're the ones who absorb its overflow) I believe the Speedline towns will start building upward. Those gigantic parking lots at Haddonfield, Woodcrest, Ashland, and Lindenwold will be replaced with mixed-use town centers and parking garages. As for Cherry Hill, just from looking at Google Maps I always thought it would make a lot of sense to run a Patco II or at least a light rail line down Rt. 70. The Rt. 70 corridor is a prime candidate for boulevardization and more dense development.
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