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In my opinion we have a way to go in terms of the bottom for NJ real estate. I have been watching the market for a while now and nothing that I have seen would make me change my opinion.
I saw a bunch of houses marked as Under Contract in W.O. and Millburn (or maybe Maplewood, I'm not sure where the border is exactly) last weekend. I don't know if it's a trend but it beats the whole lot of nothing I'd been seeing.
The foreclosures aren't selling but that's likely because they're decrepit and damaged and priced too high for what they are. You want "character", look no further. It might be poor character, though :-)
I think recovery depends more on national conditions than local at this point.
This is hilarious.. The sellers are oblivious and completely out of touch, yet their houses are selling at their high list prices.. Not a very logical statement.
And real estate in NJ is very logical, of course. Its more like emotional blackmail. I think buyers who buy these homes get trapped in the whole process, and then discover that their houses need replacement foundations, new roofs etc.
If they are selling, they are not overpriced. Period. What *you* feel about the price is irrelevant to the market.
You need to move on from Westfield - go west.
I am fighting it! I think if buyers are more educated about the process, and do not get carried away, or pushed by, realtors, we can affect a pricing correction. Even in Westfield! Or, maybe not. Then I may go West indeed.
And real estate in NJ is very logical, of course. Its more like emotional blackmail. I think buyers who buy these homes get trapped in the whole process, and then discover that their houses need replacement foundations, new roofs etc.
maybe, maybe not. regardless, the market will dictate the price. if houses are selling, they are not overpriced, regardless of your perception of the buyers' mental state.
would you think of walking into a BWM dealership and attempting to buy an new X5 for $15K? Why not?
maybe, maybe not. regardless, the market will dictate the price. if houses are selling, they are not overpriced, regardless of your perception of the buyers' mental state.
would you think of walking into a BWM dealership and attempting to buy an new X5 for $15K? Why not?
I guess I don't understand the analogy of NJ and BMW dealership. Trying to buy in Westfield is not equivalent of buying on Park Avenue. Its a very lovely town, nice and solid, but not a luxury town. To me, a BMW is a luxury car, and I would not make a lowball offer on it. But would you expect to pay 50K for a minivan? I think its all about value and perception of value. Just because many folks perceive something as valuable, doesn't make it so. The emperor may still not have any clothes!
Are the areas that were somewhat hot during the boom still have some pop? I was wondering if sellers are still listing too high for what buyers will pay.
I am sure there are some paranoids that are going buy because they are afraid they will miss bottom, but I was just curious what inventory levels are like in some of these former hot markets
I guess I don't understand the analogy of NJ and BMW dealership. Trying to buy in Westfield is not equivalent of buying on Park Avenue. Its a very lovely town, nice and solid, but not a luxury town. To me, a BMW is a luxury car, and I would not make a lowball offer on it. But would you expect to pay 50K for a minivan? I think its all about value and perception of value. Just because many folks perceive something as valuable, doesn't make it so. The emperor may still not have any clothes!
I honestly don't know how else to say this. It doesn't matter what YOU perceive the value to be. The market value is what people are paying. People are paying the prices, so that's what the homes are worth. Why is that so hard to understand?
My car analogy is perfect. I personally don't feel that BMWs are luxury - they are middle of the road cars that are way too overpriced. Guess what? The market says differently - so I drive a Honda. This isn't rocket science! *MY* personal feelings on the car don't mean jack!
I saw a bunch of houses marked as Under Contract in W.O. and Millburn (or maybe Maplewood, I'm not sure where the border is exactly) last weekend. I don't know if it's a trend but it beats the whole lot of nothing I'd been seeing.
The foreclosures aren't selling but that's likely because they're decrepit and damaged and priced too high for what they are. You want "character", look no further. It might be poor character, though :-)
I think recovery depends more on national conditions than local at this point.
i was just listening to a story about the state of the economy, and a guy basically making a point that the perception is worse than reality.
it basically makes the point that credit card debt continues to decrease, on avg. mortgage debt is decreasing. the amount of homes entering foreclosure is around pre-recession levels. corporate profits are strong. yes, 3.6 million homes are in foreclosure, but these are ones that have been in foreclosure for a long time, and the issues in the process have delayed the process. it was an interesting perspective.
I guess I don't understand the analogy of NJ and BMW dealership. Trying to buy in Westfield is not equivalent of buying on Park Avenue. Its a very lovely town, nice and solid, but not a luxury town. To me, a BMW is a luxury car, and I would not make a lowball offer on it. But would you expect to pay 50K for a minivan? I think its all about value and perception of value. Just because many folks perceive something as valuable, doesn't make it so. The emperor may still not have any clothes!
actually, that's exactly what makes something valuable. BMW's have been deemed "luxury" vehicles. but are they? they are mostly sport-performance vehicles, with poor quality, and not very luxurious interiors. but slightly more luxurious than some other vehicles. yet, an image has been sold to people, so people grossly overpay for a BMW. don't get me wrong, I like them. but they are not worth anywhere near what their price tag is. that's why they had to introduce "free maintenance" to win customers back.
as for houses in westfield, if more people value houses in westfield at higher prices than you do...and it's enough people to purchase the inventory of houses in westfield...well then...you're SOL.
it basically makes the point that credit card debt continues to decrease, on avg. mortgage debt is decreasing. the amount of homes entering foreclosure is around pre-recession levels. corporate profits are strong. yes, 3.6 million homes are in foreclosure, but these are ones that have been in foreclosure for a long time, and the issues in the process have delayed the process. it was an interesting perspective.
bradykp,
I heard that as well and it was interesting, thanks for sharing.
IMHO, right now, national numbers arent necessarily reflective of the performance of hyper local markets which is what we are seeing. The middle is getting stretched and are either going up or down.
What wasnt mentioned in the podcast (or I missed it) was govt intervention. This has no doubt played a pivotal role in "perception" that we are staying afloat somewhat. For example, I know someone that had been squatting in a home in Sea Bright for almost 2 years. No rent, no nothing. Just saving money. Well recently they bought a house and paid off all their debt during that two year stint. I am certain that they are a slice of the pie that the podcast was talking about, but not really mentioned.
I think we are still in for a world of hurt because quite frankly, we are paying tons of money for a war that is supposedly supposed to end next year through withdrawal. I still question how well that will pan out. Fannie and Freddie are STILL involved in mortgages and the Fed is doing all it can and not getting any help from legislators to actually start fixing things. PIGS are still shaky and not giving the market too much of a glowing report. Unemployment is terrible period.
No jobs, no houses. If you have a job and have a clean credit score or cash, you are in great shape to watch and pull the trigger when you want. But there is still a lot of uncertainty out there. I think people are still justifying large ticket items with perceived value based on the past decade.
A BMW vs Honda example is perfect.
Hondas/Toyotas are boring says the BMW camp and the Honda camp says BMWs are overpriced and overhyped. But there is clear difference in how they approach the consumer. BMWs and Toyotas are not far off from price from one another if you were to go car for car. But thats why there are Lexi and Acura which are overhyped and overprices for Hondas and Toyotas
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