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Ive found these interesting maps on Northeastern US / NJ population growth....and what it might look like in terms of density down the road. I don't think these are that off or fictional....The Yellow counties indicate when that County has reached its maximum land usage...which means they have run out of land to build on. Hudson County has run out of land to build anything large scale , Cape May County will be next by 2020 , Passaic , Middlesex and Monmouth counties will join them in 2030 , and by 2040 Morris and Ocean counties will join them. They factored in the protected land and parks when they came up with the build out counties , hench why you see Passaic and Cape May on there. They also factored in Population growth which has slowed in some counties like Bergen and Essex Counties , and the Land Use policies of each county...along with Smart growth was factored in.
Northeastern Megapolis population
1990 Population : 43 Million
2000 Population : 49 Million
2010 Population : 53 Million
2025 Population : 58 Million
2040 Population : 70 Million
2050 Population : 85 Million
New York City - New Jersey - Connecticut - Lower Hudson Valley Regional Transit Usage
1990 : 6 Million Daily Riders
2000 : 8 Million Daily Riders
2010 : 13 Million Daily Riders
2020 : 17 Million Daily Riders
2010 Transit Daily Usage : 20.4 Million
2020 Transit Daily Usage : 35 Million
2050 Transit Usage Daily : 50 Million
Population of New Jersey
1990 : 7.7 Million
2000 : 8.4 Million
2010 : 8.7 Million
2020 : 9.3 Million
2030 : 9.8 Million
2040 : 10.4 Million
2050 : 11.2 Million
Live long enough and you discover long range projections are good to ressurect and share a laugh with the newborns at the naivete of the great minds of that era.
Certainly this area will foster a higher population density and will become unrecognizable at some distant future date if conditions remain the same.
The reality of today and the unimaginable of tomorrow make this buildup anything but sure.
Throw in a dirty bomb, cancer scare, earthquake along the Hopewell fault, economy, antibiotics losing effectiveness, a new virus and extremist fringe government regulations can make this area extremely undesirable if not unlivable.
Newark gets its water from the Newark Watershed in Passaic co Jersey City has its own Resevoir along rt 80. Water will become an issue as development pollutes the south Jersey aquifer. Failure of fisheries, nuclear pollution from north sea Russian subs and the deteriorating Manhattan project debris might have a significant negative impact.
Dare we not forget the rights of the street gangs and their impact on quality of life in a dense urban area. Can you imagine the cost of the school system if the infinite linear relationship bewteen money spent and a quality education is maintained?
Can you imagine the quality of life?
Oh my, let's not forget huan caused global warming and the rising oceans.
At any rate take these projections with a large grain of salt and temper any master plan created today as a template to start building rail lines all over the state.
If you went to college in 1949 you learned south Jersey was the most backward region in the country where adults went barefoot in the summer and rugs and paint were unknown.
In the 70s you learned south jersey had a million $$ chicken business in their future when a million dollars was big money. You learned the earth was cooling and another ice age was at our door. The world's protein would come from the sea and ZPG movement zero population growth would save the planet.
It is naieve to think today's conditions will prevail into the future and makes a poor reference point upon which to embrace predictions made today.
I forgot to reply to this post , but I think with some tighter development rules and with the trend towards dense suburban and Urban Living we can avoid contaminating and destroying our Water sources. I think by 2050 , the Northeastern US will be the only region in great shape. The rest of the US will struggle to keep up with demand. I think NJ over the next 20 years will see its crime drop to lower levels all across the state and we will once again have the infrastructure to support all the increased growth...
Interesting that Roanoke city is the first place in Virginia to reach build-out. I would not have guessed that one.
Nex, interesting county-level population forecasts. Are they from RPA or another source? Compared to NJTPA's population forecasts, these look substantially higher in the urban counties and a bit lower in the rural counties. It would be interesting to see the differences in land use and other assumptions in both models.
Interesting that Roanoke city is the first place in Virginia to reach build-out. I would not have guessed that one.
Nex, interesting county-level population forecasts. Are they from RPA or another source? Compared to NJTPA's population forecasts, these look substantially higher in the urban counties and a bit lower in the rural counties. It would be interesting to see the differences in land use and other assumptions in both models.
I did those on my own. But I factored in the RPA , American 2050 and other sources , as well as the missing census data which might have missed over 70,000 households in New Jersey with 19,000 being in Jersey City alone. When you factor that in , the 2030 numbers don't look so far fetched... New and Enhanced Regional Rail , Light Rail and Bus Rapid Transit lines are factored in there as well. Everyone seems to want to live in a Town where theres good access to Transit.
Atlantic line - 1760 (2010) > 5,000 (2030)
Northeast Corridor - 53,800 (2010) > 170,000 (2030)
North Jersey Coast line - 17,800 (2010) > 35,000 (2030)
Raritan Valley line - 12,100 (2010) > 25,000 (2030)
Main Line - 9,160 (2010) > 30,000 (2030)
Bergen County Line - 4,300 (2010) > 17,000 (2030)
Pascack Valley Line - 3,617 (2010) > 16,000 (2030)
Montclair-Boonton Line - 10,142 (2010) > 21,000 (2030)
Morristown Line - 50,000 (2010) > 75,000 (2030)
Gladstone Branch - 3036 (2010) > 6,500 (2030)
Future Regional & Light Rail lines
MOM Rail Network - 160,000
West Trenton line - 15,000
Philpsburg Connections - 30,000
Glassboro LRT - 25,000
West Trenton LRT - 15,000
Pompton Branch - 4,600
Boonton Branch - 12,000
Newark LRT Extensions - 45,000
Northwest line - 15,000
Bergen - Passaic LRT - 9,000
West Shore line - 45,000
Kingsland Branch - 12,000
Cape May line - 3,400
Northern Branch LRT - 60,000
Infill Stations on the Regional Rail system - 30,000
Infill Stations on the LRT system - 50,000
Total Rail Ridership in 2010/2011 : 536,985
Total Rail Ridership in 2030 : 1.5 Million
Total Bus & Rail Ridership in 2010 : 1.7 Million
Total Bus & Rail Ridership in 2030 : 3.1 Million
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*** grans salis
