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Old 03-07-2012, 04:10 PM
 
1 posts, read 2,384 times
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Looks like the Tenafly real estate market is heading downhill, but sellers refuse to let go.
Almost all Bergen County communities have faced increased real estate values over the past 15 years and the data shows that Tenafly in particular had the steepest increase, probably because of its school system (and its local realtors).
The latest Case Shiller release from Feb 2012 reveals that the local North Jersey / NYC Metro market is still headed for a significant correction and Tenafly is no different. In fact, one would expect the Tenafly bubble to finaly burst even though some of the local realtors still hope it won't... By looking at the actual number of real estate transactions in Tenafly, I found something very interesting - sellers who are trying to sell costly properties in Tenafly today, cannot find buyers. So maybe we are nearing the end??
In 2011, when Tenafly sellers admitted real estate values were going down, there were 66% more transactions (by today, March-7), compared to the same period in 2012. The fact that there are actually more properties in the market today than we had a year ago, proves that buyers are much more educated these days and seems like that for the best deal, they are willing to consider the surrounding towns (such as Cresskill, Closter etc) offering excellent education systems.

Someone pointed out to me today that when there is an over-supply of homes or land in a given area, but steep decline in the number of transactions, you can usually expect there to be a fall in prices.

Last edited by JaRoche; 03-07-2012 at 04:22 PM..
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Old 03-07-2012, 04:34 PM
 
525 posts, read 1,348,606 times
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Maybe lots of old money,and their not sweating it and their homes are not under water so no rush to sell?
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Old 03-07-2012, 09:10 PM
 
Location: NJ/NY
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One thing that I have learned from years of investing that is common to all markets is that there are a lot of opinions, and there is usually equal data backing up the opposite of any opinion.

Long term, all markets go up (not individual stocks, houses, neighborhoods, etc...but markets). This makes sense as we are constantly printing more money and markets equilibrate when given enough time. At a minimum, you want to beat inflation. So if you are buying for the long haul, you are fine, barring any disaster or change in demographics.

Short term, the one thing I CAN tell you is that the prices are either going to go up, or they are going to go down.
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Old 03-08-2012, 06:07 PM
 
525 posts, read 1,348,606 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnesthesiaMD View Post
One thing that I have learned from years of investing that is common to all markets is that there are a lot of opinions, and there is usually equal data backing up the opposite of any opinion.

Long term, all markets go up (not individual stocks, houses, neighborhoods, etc...but markets). This makes sense as we are constantly printing more money and markets equilibrate when given enough time. At a minimum, you want to beat inflation. So if you are buying for the long haul, you are fine, barring any disaster or change in demographics.

Short term, the one thing I CAN tell you is that the prices are either going to go up, or they are going to go down.

Not a very useful bit of info.
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Old 03-09-2012, 06:52 AM
 
Location: NJ/NY
16,677 posts, read 12,813,282 times
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Originally Posted by beachouse View Post
Not a very useful bit of info.
That was the point.

If it were that easy to predict, everyone would be rich. I was cautioning the OP to always look at the other side before placing his/her bet. One has to look at general currency inflation which has a lot to do with jobs, government printing press and interest rates vs another recession. Then there is the real estate market in the closest major city, and new and existing government rules and regulations, and many other factors. It is easy to cherry pick information to support ones hopes and wishes, but very often that ends in disappointment.

Last edited by AnesthesiaMD; 03-09-2012 at 07:17 AM..
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Old 10-27-2015, 06:32 PM
 
8 posts, read 7,813 times
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well, there are several trends at play:
-long-term, well-connected towns like Teanafly will continue to be attractive for the commuters
-long term, Bergen, Essex and Hudson counties population will continue to grow
-in the nearest future the interest rates will start going up soon
- currently the inventory is growing.

See overall the picture is pretty complicated. The only thing we can all say is that the RE market might soften a little in the next 4-6 months.
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Old 10-30-2015, 12:01 PM
 
246 posts, read 322,737 times
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Don't know if Tenafly ever "burst," but if you look at sold houses on Zillow, houses that have not been renovated are selling below their 05-08 prices. There are a few like that recently. A lot of the renovated houses on the market seem to be sitting as the owners cannot recoup their renovation costs.
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