This article provided some good explanation on what is driving the numbers, things not often mentioned:
Why Christie Won't Mention N.J.'s Unemployment Rate
1. NJ has the largest labor force participation rate in the country at 66%, that makes our unemployment rate naturally higher then the national average. Nationally the labor force participation rate is at 63%, if we made the national number equal to NJ's, national unemployment would be near 8.9%.
2. NJ's labor force is heavily tied to NY and PA. While some people think that the financial sector is apparently "doing well" the reality is that financial services, which was a huge part of NJ's economy is still lagging hard and is the main driver behind the unemployment numbers. If we ignored the losses in the financial services sector, NJ's unemployment rate would be nearly 1.5% lower. Someone cited the NYC 10% rate and that does, in fact, have an impact on NJ in a big way. Those financial services jobs that were lost probably aren't coming back and the constriction in the pharmaceutical sector is also hurting. Many traditionally more "blue collar" industries are actually doing OK.
3. The numbers themselves can be questioned. The recent surveys are predicated on conflicting reports:
a. The establishment survey polls businesses to determine their hiring. This shows that NJ has gained 55,300 jobs since Christie took office with 5,000 of them being tied to Revel.
b. The household survey is what the unemployment rate projections are based on. Those show that NJ has only added 26,376 jobs since Christie took office and unemployment increased by 6,474.
Obviously Christie (and Obama) would much rather quote "A" then "B". Which is right, I don't know.
For aynone interested here are the actual BLS tables:
New Jersey Economy at a Glance
If you click on the "back data" button (the little dinosaur) next to each category it shows you the 10 year rolling number for that sector.
Here is "Information":
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
This has been on a long decline in NJ.
This is "Financial":
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
You can actually see this basically drive off a cliff in 2008 and not come back.
Since it was mentioned, here is the "government" graph:
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
We've shed around 40k government jobs since Christie took office.
It's interesting to actually see where the changes have taken place, which industries are growing, which are continuing long term trends and which are constricting. Overall, NJ seems to be going through a change of economy as much as anything else.
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