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Old 11-26-2007, 12:14 PM
 
Location: High Bridge
2,736 posts, read 9,657,054 times
Reputation: 673

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ourdreamhouse View Post
and any movement is reported regularly in the press.
The same press that said "Why The Housing Bubble Won't Burst" (Business Week, May 2006), "Home Sales to Continue at Torrid Pace" (Washington Post, May 2005), "Freddie Mac: No Housing Bubble" (Motley Fool (Investments) July 2004)?
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Old 11-26-2007, 12:46 PM
 
56 posts, read 249,833 times
Reputation: 21
I would like to comment on this thread as someone with very good knowledge of only new construction info in NJ ...things aren't going to get hugely better til early 2010 and it kills me to say that..because our family's income depends on builders. We were going to buy stock in some of the big builders companies now while they're so low, but honestly some of them aren't going to make it out of this awful slowdown..the ones that do will be positioned pretty good when the market comes back, but it's a crap shoot as to who will be around then. I don't see a substantive real estate market comeback in new construction any time soon in NJ.
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Old 11-26-2007, 12:58 PM
 
Location: Piscataway, New Jersey
531 posts, read 2,147,432 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CuCullin View Post
The same press that said "Why The Housing Bubble Won't Burst" (Business Week, May 2006)...
The dude who wrote that article in BusinessWeek (something-Youngblood) predicted huge price increases in the Fort Myer area of FL. Well... LMAO now.
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Old 11-26-2007, 01:27 PM
 
Location: High Bridge
2,736 posts, read 9,657,054 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by syncmaster View Post
The dude who wrote that article in BusinessWeek (something-Youngblood) predicted huge price increases in the Fort Myer area of FL. Well... LMAO now.
Youngblood predicted alot of other things too - I'd venture to say he fails miserably in the market forecast business
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Old 11-26-2007, 02:53 PM
 
Location: Atlantic Highlands NJ/Ponte Vedra FL/NYC
2,689 posts, read 3,951,208 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CuCullin View Post
Like I said, no *direct* relationship - the federal rate effects the general economy, which, in turn, *may* effect the rate. However, lowering the federal rate does *not* mean that you'll suddenly get better mortgage rates.



Not to mention Judge Boyko's recent ruling, pointing out that these foreclosures going on right now can't show chain of ownership, and because of that, can't foreclose on homes:



Note 3 is fantastic - the last line specifically.
that judge is an idiot, was his ruling appealed? was it reversed?
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Old 11-26-2007, 03:02 PM
 
Location: New Jersey/Florida
5,818 posts, read 12,599,180 times
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In regards to the housing bubble its no where near bursting YET. A little pin hole in it thats all. Just wait until it bursts another 20-30 percent than we will hit bottom and the buyers will start to crawl out from under the rocks. We have to remember our home went up almost 100 percent in 5 to 6 years. They only backed down alittle bit. Smart people sold 18 months ago when the general public was on a feeding freenzy with multiple bids on homes and some dummies paying ABOVE the listing price. Homes can't get 1 bid now never multiple bidders. It was shear madness thats long,long gone.
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Old 11-26-2007, 04:39 PM
 
37 posts, read 280,875 times
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Housing bubble bursting? I do think we're in for a soft landing. The bubble will softly land once grossly overpriced homes have lost 25-30 percent of their value. I paid $599K for a home in Phoenix that the previous owner had purchased new for $295K. I paid the going rate. I sold a little over a year ago at $715K.

Look at the progression: $295K. $599K. $715K.

Obviously no market can support that kind of appreciation. I got out just in time. If I were selling today I would have been lucky to sell at $599K.

Some investments go up, some go down. Real estate is no different.
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Old 11-26-2007, 05:58 PM
 
78 posts, read 399,991 times
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jersey man, first, most places in nj did not apppreciate 100% in 6 years. if you extend your time frame a little longer, say from 1990. the appreciation is near the norm: 4%. that is why this is not bubble in nj and that is why we did not see significant decline in last 2 years. due to the credit easing, i would think it will not decline significantly in next 2 years.
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Old 11-26-2007, 08:16 PM
 
Location: Atlantic Highlands NJ/Ponte Vedra FL/NYC
2,689 posts, read 3,951,208 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lin67 View Post
jersey man, first, most places in nj did not apppreciate 100% in 6 years. if you extend your time frame a little longer, say from 1990. the appreciation is near the norm: 4%. that is why this is not bubble in nj and that is why we did not see significant decline in last 2 years. due to the credit easing, i would think it will not decline significantly in next 2 years.
you too are making the mistake of generalizing, remember all real estate is local and while your data could be correct in some places I can tell you that in others the values could indeed have gone up 100% in a few years, my home in NJ went up almost 300% since 1990
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Old 11-27-2007, 07:30 AM
 
Location: Sarasota, FL
252 posts, read 768,069 times
Reputation: 134
Quote:
Originally Posted by CuCullin View Post
The same press that said "Why The Housing Bubble Won't Burst" (Business Week, May 2006), "Home Sales to Continue at Torrid Pace" (Washington Post, May 2005), "Freddie Mac: No Housing Bubble" (Motley Fool (Investments) July 2004)?
No, not that press!! Not the press that makes predictions based on idealogy or the desire to get quoted and sell papers. Not the press that blindly funnels the latest wishful thinking from the National Association of Realtors.

I'm talking about the press that accurately conveys the latest metrics re: for example, months of inventory of unsold homes on the market, or the press that accurately reports on the latest fall in home prices from an unbiased researcher such as Case/Shiller.

Once the (now bloated) inventory of homes on the market starts to fall, i'll start paying more attention. When the price of existing homes rises for two or three consecutive months, it will be time to buy in. As i said, those things won't happen overnight. There will be plenty of time to make a move once this market has hit bottom.
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