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I actually went to the census data and checked it for these towns and they all lost a lot of 34-44 cohort as well (which figures as these people would have kids under 5 yo) and the picture is similar in towns to the south-west of this map.
I find this picture extremely puzzling. It seems that "nicer" places such as Ridgewood and Wyckoff, Westfield to the south are hemmoraging young families. At the same time, places like Madison actually had a modest increase growth and Cliffside and Lyndhurst are growing very rapidly. Why is that? Cliffside/Lyndhurst are not nearly as nice, and Madison is farther from the city. It seems kinda random to me. My first choice moving out of NYC would be Westfield, but it lost nearly 25% of people in the 34-44 age group (my age group) in the last 10 years. Is there something wrong with this place? Why are people leaving and where are they moving to? I want to avoid buying in a town with a death spiral tax dynamic, where eroding tax base leads to higher taxes, which leads to further erosion of tax base, etc. I also get the entire negative demographic trend situation. And I get that my generation prefers living in urban environment. But definitely urban has become very unaffordable, i just cant get my mind around where are all the people going, and where they will be going in the next 10 years. I dont want to lose money on the house. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
Well, I think one significant factor was the recession and burst housing bubble. To some extent, there was a lot less movement of real estate over the past 7 years, so a lot of the people may not have moved, but simply aged out of that age group. And mortgage lending got tighter, so younger home buyers had more difficulty qualifying for loans, making it harder to get into some sought-after towns.
Prices did not come down in those towns I dont think theres a lot of underwater houses which could prevent people from moving (selling). Buyers in the 34-44 group are very likely to be first-time buyers with no prior mortgages. And - places like Jersey City, Hoboken at the same time exploded - RE crisis or not and they are more expensive now on a sf basis and still not nearly as nice. There's a lot of places in NYC area where prices skyrocketed and population grew. So people do move, and they do have money to buy. Just not in these "nice" bedroom communities. Why? I sense that there's some deeper trend going on here.
I actually went to the census data and checked it for these towns and they all lost a lot of 34-44 cohort as well (which figures as these people would have kids under 5 yo) and the picture is similar in towns to the south-west of this map.
I find this picture extremely puzzling. It seems that "nicer" places such as Ridgewood and Wyckoff, Westfield to the south are hemmoraging young families. At the same time, places like Madison actually had a modest increase growth and Cliffside and Lyndhurst are growing very rapidly. Why is that? Cliffside/Lyndhurst are not nearly as nice, and Madison is farther from the city. It seems kinda random to me. My first choice moving out of NYC would be Westfield, but it lost nearly 25% of people in the 34-44 age group (my age group) in the last 10 years. Is there something wrong with this place? Why are people leaving and where are they moving to? I want to avoid buying in a town with a death spiral tax dynamic, where eroding tax base leads to higher taxes, which leads to further erosion of tax base, etc. I also get the entire negative demographic trend situation. And I get that my generation prefers living in urban environment. But definitely urban has become very unaffordable, i just cant get my mind around where are all the people going, and where they will be going in the next 10 years. I dont want to lose money on the house. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
I recently read a different article about how the cities are rising faster than suburbs, even for families.
I know of Westfield from going there from time to time, but I can't say much about the market, demographics, etc. Perhaps people who would be moving to Westfield are instead moving to more city-like places with easier access into the city. I can't speak for Lyndhurst, but I know that Madison is a great place for young families because of the school, access to major highways like I-287, its downtown, and probably the most important thing: direct access to NYC via train. Westfield has a transfer involved (although I know they're doing a test-run for direct route into NYC), so even if it's a little closer, geographically, to NYC, the commute time is basically the same.
I recently read a different article about how the cities are rising faster than suburbs, even for families.
I know of Westfield from going there from time to time, but I can't say much about the market, demographics, etc. Perhaps people who would be moving to Westfield are instead moving to more city-like places with easier access into the city. I can't speak for Lyndhurst, but I know that Madison is a great place for young families because of the school, access to major highways like I-287, its downtown, and probably the most important thing: direct access to NYC via train. Westfield has a transfer involved (although I know they're doing a test-run for direct route into NYC), so even if it's a little closer, geographically, to NYC, the commute time is basically the same.
Commute is all relative to where you're going in the city. Penn Station is not really a great point in the city to be getting to as it is far from midtown east and downtown business areas. In my case it would do nothing for me, and commute to WTC is 30 minutes shorter from WF.. I doubt its the direct train to Penn Station that is the attraction. I would imagine higher RE taxes in WF could be a turn off though. This is worrisome
All about the benjamins. Unless you make Wall St. robber baron/plastic surgeon/corporate lawyer cash you're priced out of those places from the start. It aint Mom & Dad's Bergen or Morris County anymore. It's why the population of NJ has been moving toward Central Jersey the last couple of decades. Wherever it's still considered a "reasonable" commute to NYC or North Jersey. Freehold, northern Monmouth and towns on the Coast Line being the outer limits. Same when you head out to Western NJ. The mutts of Jersey still need places to live, At least until the entire state is Upper West Side-erized. Then you'll have to bus in guest workers from PA & upstate NY like some sort Middle Eastern petro state.
So why arent 34-44 yo lawyers/bankers/plastic surgeons buying in Westfield? Or Ridgewood? Trust me when I say it that a very small portion of these affluent groups can afford to live in what may be more desirable NYC locations where 2br apartments start at $1.5m these days (which gets you a 5bdr in a nice NJ town).
So why arent 34-44 yo lawyers/bankers/plastic surgeons buying in Westfield? Or Ridgewood? Trust me when I say it that a very small portion of these affluent groups can afford to live in what may be more desirable NYC locations where 2br apartments start at $1.5m these days (which gets you a 5bdr in a nice NJ town).
Clifton is on the cheap side and it's more working class. That's probably accounts for the 15% gain. Places like Wycoff and Ridgewood are off the wall in terms of pricing, hence the loss.
The map is actually straightforward. For those who want to buy a home, it's going to be cheaper in Clifton and Hackensack than the already established and affluent areas of Bergen County. What I would be more curious about is a map covering Somerset and Morris Counties. The population map on the webapge is just for Bergen, which is known for its disparity in wealth between it's borders (and extremely high taxes.)
Says US census. Shows population decline in this age group in these towns.
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