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Cities are making a comeback. Much of the wealth and jobs, along with educated population are making their way back to cities, urban environments. Will this cause trouble for NJ? NYC and Philly have more pull than any city in our state. Will these two powerhouses end up sucking the economy and young talent out of NJ? Because I doubt cities such as Newark or Trenton will become desirable in the next 15 years. Other than hudson county (which is practically nyc), will new jersey as a state see a big decline, since it's majority suburban sprawl or depressed cities?
No. Many North Jersey suburbs are by and large benefiting from the revival of NYC; trying to raise a family in NYC is pretty much the province of the poor and the rich, even the upper middle class need not apply in most cases. I expect the NJ suburbs of Philadelphia will benefit also. Losses we've already seen around NJ job centers where office parks lie empty.
Uh, I think you should have asked this question 30+ years ago when NYC was making a comeback at the time... and I don't think that destroyed NJ at all.
In the short term, maybe, since NYC and Philadelphia are so much larger and generally more attractive to prospective residents than most NJ cities.
In the long term, I think it will greatly benefit NJ. First, looking beyond small cities, NJ has a great number of small cities and walkable railroad suburbs that are already thriving (see Morristown, Montclair, Red Bank). New York's importance and expense will continue to make places with mass-transit access to Manhattan desirable. Hudson County's boom is the prime example.
As for other major NJ cities, Newark as seeing a few glimmers of urban revitalization downtown, in addition to the Ironbound, while 'Greater Newark' seems to be thriving. There have been a handful of new developments popping up in Orange and Bloomfield too. Harrison is booming. South Orange has a lot of new development.
Elsewhere, I could see Elizabeth doing well, since it's on the NEC line, right next to the Turnpike, and has a lower crime rate and better schools than other NJ cities. Paterson I worry about, since it lacks most of the transit advantages of the cities on Newark Bay. It does have a nicer stock of historic buildings than Newark or Elizabeth though. If anything holds North Jersey cities back in the long term, it'll be the lack of good intra-city mass transit and poor zoning that has left much of Newark and surrounding cities with medium-density residential areas full of lower-quality housing stock.
Regarding Central and South Jersey...
Trenton is in a great location, only an hour+ train ride to NYC and Philly, it's home to the state government, and the only real urban area in the immediate vicinity. Proximity to all of the offices on the Route 1 corridor can't hurt either. There's already a small amount of revitalization taking place in the Mill Hill area.
South Jersey, I have a much dimmer view. Camden has managed to attract a handful of businesses, but the city obviously has a long way to go. The waterfront, despite all of the attractions put there, remains mostly a sea of empty parking lots. The remainder of the city has some very charming housing stock, but most of it seems to be falling apart. There's just a lot less money in South Jersey. A decade after the Riverline opened and most of the river towns still range from sleepy to rundown. There's also a mindset against density and development. Aside from Collingswood, the PATCO towns have resisted any kind of TOD. Cherry Hill's attempt to build up around their train station has yielded nothing but a very fancy looking strip mall. Sprawl-centrit development continues to press outward down 70, 73, and 38. None of this is going to attract younger generations, when you still have sub 1000$ rents in Philadelphia.
Average wage earners with families cannot afford to live in NYC or even major parts of Brooklyn due to high real estate costs. As for education, after elementary school, students must apply to jr and sr high schools to avoid the general population schools. That sucks. If you live in Manhattan do you want your deliver your 11 year old to school by riding mass transit for 30 minutes (or longer depending on where they get in) to and from jr high school before work? How about high school students having an hour commute? It kind of defeats the purpose of living in NYC.
My family moved out as my son was finishing 5th grade. It was the best decision we ever made. We gave up our short commutes, but our kids live 5 minutes from their schools and their friends (not spread all over the 5 Boroughs). The school academics are not specialized like many of the high schools in NYC. There are sports programs that are easy to access in the town and in the schools. We live in a small, old house that is 3 times bigger than our apt and we have instant access to our yard to go outside with our kids.
We continue to have easy access to NYC by living in NJ. This will never change.
In short, New Jersey being the most densely populated state in the nation has room for all kinds of lifestyles therefore anything going on development wise either in NJ cities or nearby adjacents will only improve the values of NJ.
I think NJ is already in trouble because the parts of the state commutable to either NYC or Philadelphia are turning into baby making factories. Parents commute to NYC or Philadelphia their kids are in NJ schools or day care centers...
So most local governments will probably do well since they will have the tax based to support their services. But the poor state of NJ will probably continue to struggle since significant portion of the population will not be paying state taxes.
Outside of Hudson county, I think the residents of the state will largely be middle aged parents with kids or older people. In my opinion, this population mix is not good to NJ as it really hinders innovation and risk taking. There aren't now, nor there likely be many innovative start up companies in NJ. On other other hand medium sized companies that actually make something might be priced out of NYC and move to NJ. This is happening to some extent even now so that migration might continue.
It's good news both for urban NJ (Jersey City, Newark, maybe even Camden) and for the more transit-accessible parts of suburban NJ, particularly along NJ Transit routes. It's bad news for places that are more car-dependent, far away from NJ Transit lines and decent bus service, such as Hunterdon County and Ocean County.
It also probably does little for Trenton, which is too small to have much local economy or attract new residents on its own and too far from NYC and Philadelphia to be the beneficiary of urban spillover. Similar for Atlantic City.
Wealth creates wealth. NJ will be in great shape if NY and Philly continue to do well.
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