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nice graphs, but utterly meaningless in the real world.
instead of using the past as an indicator, I look at what is actually happening.
to me, the irony is that mortgage lenders are doing many refinancings (at less than 5%) to people who have positive equity anyway, and don't really need it (i.e. that's short-term positive for banks while they get the benefit of closing fees; but it's a long-term negative for banks since they will get only 4.5% interest instead of 7-8% interest).
We don't want to confuse people with facts, do we? Nor do we EVER paint with a broad brush claiming that all Realtors are bad. That would be... irresponsible, inaccurate, untrue.
But don't let the truth stand in your way.... go for it!
nice graphs, but utterly meaningless in the real world.
Well, you stated:
Affordability is at levels not seen in 35 years, relative to income.
but according to published HOI numbers, that is not true at all. What's the basis for your claim ? Did you just make it up, and hope noone would call your bluff ?
Affordability is at levels not seen in 35 years, relative to income.
but according to published HOI numbers, that is not true at all. What's the basis for your claim ? Did you just make it up, and hope noone would call your bluff ?
No reason for the hard-edge... interest rates are at record lows + prices are way down.
We're starting to see a leveling off and some increases in the number of contracts being signed and that is backed by the fact that new loan applications are up (as apposed to refinancings) for the first time in months. Prices won't zoom back up the way the did in the past, but I can see some leveling of prices in some areas this year. This does not mean the storm is over quite yet, but we are starting to see a few breaks in the clouds.
No reason for the hard-edge... interest rates are at record lows + prices are way down.
We're starting to see a leveling off and some increases in the number of contracts being signed and that is backed by the fact that new loan applications are up (as apposed to refinancings) for the first time in months. Prices won't zoom back up the way the did in the past, but I can see some leveling of prices in some areas this year. This does not mean the storm is over quite yet, but we are starting to see a few breaks in the clouds.
Sorry about the "hard edge". But I do get impatient sometimes when people repeatedly post falsehoods even after getting called out on it.
It is correct that rates are low. It is also correct that prices are down from their 2006 highs. However, prices are still well above historical norms, and this is reflected in affordability numbers that remain quite low. It is simply incorrect, wrong, utter baloney, to assert that affordability is the highest in 35 years.
Ironically, the low rates of recent years actually resulted in lower affordability, because the prices didn't merely proportionately to the rates -- the rates ended up fanning a bubble.
As for pricing, in the NY Metro area, the market is predicting a bottoming out in late 2010. There are other regions where the market is close to the bottom and should bottom out this year. These are mostly areas that didn't have a bubble, or experienced a swift and brutal correction.
nice graphs, but utterly meaningless in the real world.
instead of using the past as an indicator, I look at what is actually happening.
to me, the irony is that mortgage lenders are doing many refinancings (at less than 5%) to people who have positive equity anyway, and don't really need it (i.e. that's short-term positive for banks while they get the benefit of closing fees; but it's a long-term negative for banks since they will get only 4.5% interest instead of 7-8% interest).
Looking at the real world instead of the past, I see several things:
1) Unemployment rates are high and it doesn't look like it will recover that quickly. If there are more people who lose their jobs or underemployed, wouldn't you think that this will have a negative effect on their ability to afford a home? Do you think there are any signs that the economy will recover rather quickly?
2) Having been on the market for a while, it is clear to me that it is becoming more and more difficult to get mortgage for first-time buyers. Many people who were able to get mortgage very easily have hard time to do so now. Do you find this information irrelevant?
If incomes are stagnant or going down, if it becomes more difficult to find a job/keep a job, if it becomes more difficult to get mortgage, wouldn't you expect that the housing market will affect negatively? Or you think that the housing market is totally immune to the rest of the economy? If people cannot afford homes, who do you expect will purchase these homes? Martians?
Seriously jg, just stop and read what you write. It's like pointing to a dog and insist it's cat! I am at a loss on how to respond to such blind fictions, but will try.
First, do you understand the difference between refinancing and a new mortgage application?
Second, the current unemployment is at 8.5% and continues to increase. You think 80% of the population have high paying jobs and are ready to buy a home? also nevermind the one of the worst foreclosure cycles we are currently in.
Third, it doesnt makes any sense to compare a retail investor to one of the largest banks in the us backed by billions of government funding, and you think the wfc's 3b profit is from buying foreclosure and short sales? I guess i should start buying up all the foreclosures and shortsales too, because wfc made 3b profit from it!
Right now manhattan's price is dropping significantly, it's clear as day just go look at craigslist or any listingbook. At best we are looking at a flat market for at least a few years while things stabilize and employment comes back, but most likely expect another 10-15% drop at least. The real estate market have long memories, it's not the stock market that's forward looking 1-2 years.
the mind boggles...
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183
Higher volume of mortgage lending is happening. Those with prime rate credit & high paying jobs (over 80% of the population, a conservative estimate) are in the best position to buy a home. Affordability is at levels not seen in 35 years, relative to income. Plus you can invest in foreclosures or short sales and make a killing. This was reported by Wells Fargo as the basis for their profits. The MBA Purchase & Refinance index has been surging...
If incomes are stagnant or going down, if it becomes more difficult to find a job/keep a job, if it becomes more difficult to get mortgage, wouldn't you expect that the housing market will affect negatively? Or you think that the housing market is totally immune to the rest of the economy? If people cannot afford homes, who do you expect will purchase these homes? Martians?
LOL
Hey! One more reason why we need to step up the search for intelligent life in Outer Space -- we need to find some more suckers to sell overpriced homes to!
(Although I suppose if they are truly intelligent life forms, they probably won't buy our overpriced houses ... OK, scrap the search for "intelligent" life forms, how about we just look for marginally-sentient life forms ...)
nice graphs, but utterly meaningless in the real world.
instead of using the past as an indicator, I look at what is actually happening.
You provide endless entertainment, JG.
Charts, data ... bah! Let's look at the "real world". Oops. Record job losses, falling and stagnant wages, tax increases, rising bankruptcy and foreclosures ... hmmm, the real world isn't looking too hot either.
How about Second Life? Surely things are looking up there ...
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