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Old 05-18-2008, 11:04 AM
 
786 posts, read 2,663,223 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NJGuy9 View Post
My two cents...Not that it means much...is that in NJ (especially North Jersey), prices will follow a wide-U shaped bottom, but the situation will not get too ugly. I think we will be spared from the huge declines seen in CA and FL. I think we may see another 5-10% dip over the next year just to get sellers to achieve realistic prices, but the proximity to NYC and the population density will prevent any further drop. It seems like new construction is giving incentives equal to a 5-10% dip, b\c they better know where the market is going and can afford to lower prices. With these incentives, it seems like new homes are moving, so the market views a 5% dip as a fair value.

I also think units < 350K will suffer a smaller percent decline than the > 500K homes, as fewer people will have the down payments required for a 500K+ home.

That said, due to affordability issues, I think it will be several years before prices start going back up. I think prices will stay relatively flat through 2014 or so before starting to uptick at ~3% per year.

I would be buying this year so long as you have enough of a down payment so the cost of owning is not too much more than renting a comp. unit. Mortgage rates are still low, so waiting until 2010 or so to jump in could cost you hundreds of dollars a month in interest. However, buyers need to be realistic and not expect the irrational growth of the first half of this decade.

Just my two cents...
If you have to buy this year, don't buy in summer as there is usually an uptick during this period. Wait uintil Fall/Winter when sellers are really desperate and many more homes that are in pre-foreclosure right now (and I bet ya most here would be surprised at how many there are - they're like clouds of homes in some areas) go into the market as resales or REO.

IF you don't need to, you can probably wait until next year because i don't see this going up soon..there are WAY too many home in PRE- forclosure that might suddenly drop into the matket later this year into next year.

Rule #2, never EVER listen to realtors about when the market is rising again, because it's in their interest to get you to buy NOW....
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Old 05-18-2008, 12:59 PM
 
Location: NJ
23,861 posts, read 33,523,515 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kalim2008 View Post
IF you don't need to, you can probably wait until next year because i don't see this going up soon..there are WAY too many home in PRE- forclosure that might suddenly drop into the matket later this year into next year.

Rule #2, never EVER listen to realtors about when the market is rising again, because it's in their interest to get you to buy NOW....
Buying foreclosures & pre- foreclosures might not be what people want. You're taslking about buying houses that people stopped caring for, not only that there may be red tape involved.

Anyone looking to buy like this should make sure they know the ins & outs. From what I've read about it, it is nothing I want to pursue
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Old 05-18-2008, 05:38 PM
 
786 posts, read 2,663,223 times
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Originally Posted by Roselvr View Post
Buying foreclosures & pre- foreclosures might not be what people want. You're taslking about buying houses that people stopped caring for, not only that there may be red tape involved.

Anyone looking to buy like this should make sure they know the ins & outs. From what I've read about it, it is nothing I want to pursue
I'm saying that all the pre-foreclosures right now might end up being in the market later (as normal sales, auctions, or REOs) , which means this would INCREASE the overall inventory of homes on the market, which means a downward pressure on prices. Note that quite a few PRE-foreclosures end up as NORMAL sales at the beginning as owners try to sell the homes before the bank closes on them. Unless you researched it well, you might not even know the home you're inspecting is a pre-foreclosure.
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