Towns likely to retain home value (Morganville, Millstone: comparable sales, sales, real estate)

[NjDevils3027]

Originally Posted by Tubulus

Maybe OP should be more clear about exactly why their neighborhood is on the precipice of "degrading." Otherwise it makes zero sense to move towns just because you have a hunch that home values in one town might hold of better than another town.

Agreed. The OP is a little too vague which gives credence to the demographics aspect that was mentioned.

[Rollingon]

Dont have an answer to OP's Q about specific Towns but sharing my analysis based off reasoning.

Here are prices of some commodities tracked per Bloomberg that shows how much inflation has soared since Jan 2020.
Natural Gas by 233.5, Wheat 111, Corn 103, Cotton 100, Oil 77, Coffee 57, Sugar 48.9, butter 44.5, Cheese 30.6 and only Orange juice registered negative -29.8 (all numbers are percentages)

As one can realize the median falls above 65% when it comes to price increases. How many of us had salary hikes of 65%! The whole bubble has not burst so far because employment numbers are high. Once the layoffs kick in its anybody's guess if companies selling products based off above commodities will lower or up the prices. More importantly people without paychecks will result in foreclosures, bankruptcies and everything else to follow that will add to inventory and kick the stand underneath those willing to pay absurd prices. Without cheap money the gravy train is headed to slow down and eventually stop.

Those towns that are on a train line and historically well performing schools will mostly hold value over others. These towns have commuters with above average salaries, which normally translates into savings and thus can tied over the deepest end of recession and that results into properties and towns holding value.

[SchneesR]

DannyHobkins, right now we’re actually dealing with problems from a neighboring town spilling into ours. It’s not illegals, but I’d definitely want to avoid moving somewhere with those problems as well.

Basically I’m just wanting to feel confident that when we move, we’ll be able to call a place home for 10-15 years without worrying about major factors impacting the quality of life and desirability of the town.

We’re going to be paying top dollar to move right now, and I’d hate to find ourselves either losing a ton of money on our home bc the town becomes undesirable or having to move our kids when they’re in the middle of their school-age years.

Hope that helps clarify what types of info and opinions I’m looking for.

[NjDevils3027]

ScheensR - are you locked into that central jersey / shore area? If not, look into Fairfield just not in the flood zones. Good schools, good neighborhoods, etc.

[SchneesR]

Yes, we really can’t stray too far due to my husband’s job and family who has moved to Monmouth/Ocean counties in recent years to be close to us. Monroe township is probably as far north as we’d go if we’re further west. Middletown as far north on the east side.

Of Monroe, Millstone, Manalapan, Marlboro, Morganville, and Middletown, curious what peoples perspectives on those towns are. We know Holmdel/Colts Neck is likely to remain a desirable place to be, but they’re also most expensive of the options. We also like having a bit more property than we’d get in the shore towns but open tho that as well.

[NjDevils3027]

Gotcha - I'll leave it to posters here who are much more informed on that area, but all I will say is that I'd be surprised if you will have serious issues with any of those towns you listed. Just based on anecdotal info that I have from friends who live in/near or come from Monroe, Marlboro, Middletown.

[SchneesR]

Thank you! Appreciate your insights.

[Irish Eyes]

I don't think Middletown fits on that list.

[Roselvr]

Originally Posted by Rollingon

Dont have an answer to OP's Q about specific Towns but sharing my analysis based off reasoning.

Here are prices of some commodities tracked per Bloomberg that shows how much inflation has soared since Jan 2020.
Natural Gas by 233.5, Wheat 111, Corn 103, Cotton 100, Oil 77, Coffee 57, Sugar 48.9, butter 44.5, Cheese 30.6 and only Orange juice registered negative -29.8 (all numbers are percentages)

As one can realize the median falls above 65% when it comes to price increases. How many of us had salary hikes of 65%! The whole bubble has not burst so far because employment numbers are high. Once the layoffs kick in its anybody's guess if companies selling products based off above commodities will lower or up the prices. More importantly people without paychecks will result in foreclosures, bankruptcies and everything else to follow that will add to inventory and kick the stand underneath those willing to pay absurd prices. Without cheap money the gravy train is headed to slow down and eventually stop.

Those towns that are on a train line and historically well performing schools will mostly hold value over others. These towns have commuters with above average salaries, which normally translates into savings and thus can tied over the deepest end of recession and that results into properties and towns holding value.

Totally agree but I personally would not buy right now due to prices doubling during COVID plus those foreclosures that have started to come online, there will be a LOT more due to the layoffs who are now going to be house poor with no options except to walk away.

Originally Posted by SchneesR

Ok, thanks. Regardless of prices, the info I’m really looking for is what towns are likely to remain desirable places to live. Of the towns I mentioned, I’m curious if anyone has concerns about them changing for the worse over the coming decade.

You're going to end up house poor if you don't care about prices and whether they will or won't go down.

You honestly need to read the article from NJ.com (I can't read it on my computer but I can on my cell phone) on the 8 counties in NJ that had the biggest price hike during COVID. My county Gloucester was one of them.

We paid "about" $400k for our home in South Jersey in 2008, the market crashed, we "lost" $100k, meaning we'd have to bring money to the table if we sold. House prices were about $275k until COVID housing shortage drove our listing price this Spring to $425k, sold the first day for 15% over, so they buyer paid more than we did when it was new in 2008.

I'm going to give you advice that I did for us. I went to zillow, looked at the houses for sale in my area because we were staying local, just downsizing. I looked to see when the house last sold and for how much plus what they were asking. In our price range, a lot bought for about $150k before COVID hit. Now they listed to ask double what they paid for it so roughly $300k which in some cases now bought you a 3 bedroom one bath house, no thanks. By the time you add the 15% over list, you're underwater for over $150k if the market does correct. So now you're house poor like we were. You'd have to hope that house will recover some of it by the time you need to sell so you don't have to bring money to the table. Also think about how you're paying taxes on a higher amount, so you'd probably have to appeal your tax bill at some point.

NJ 101.5 said last week that foreclosures that were supposed to hit the market before COVID that never did are starting to come online, so watch out for this too.

IMO, it is very risky buying in some towns right now if they also had prices double during COVID.

My hubs sister lives in Freehold, I don't think she's happy there any more. I can't elaborate on why because I don't remember what my hub said. Her adult kids grew up there.

You couldn't pay me to live in the areas you're looking. I've been in South Jersey since 93, quality of life is way better down here. We're close to Philly which is good if one works in NYC that also has an office in Philly they could get moved to.


Some articles so you can read it with your own eyes. My advice, if you're market is still doing good, consider listing your house now to rent like we are while you watch what's going to happen so you don't end up house poor. No one can tell you what town will be hit. We also can't tell you about immigrants and other ethnicities moving into areas they do not occupy now. You may sell, only to find the same in your new town in a few years. Welcome to NJ, illegal friendly state.



These 8 N.J. counties among most at risk in U.S. for housing price downturn - Updated: Jun. 24, 2022, 3:54 p.m.|Published: Jun. 24, 2022, 10:02 a.m.


Foreclosure Surge Hits NJ Hard, 2nd-Highest Rate In U.S.: Report
U.S. foreclosures returned to pre-pandemic levels. Here's how prevalent they've been throughout New Jersey, according to data from ATTOM.


California, New Jersey and Illinois Again Dominate List of Vulnerable Housing Markets - by ATTOM Staff | Sep 15, 2022


U.S. foreclosures near pre-COVID level, NJ 4th-highest in August - By Patrick Lavery - Published: September 13, 2022


Read More: U.S. foreclosures near pre-COVID level, NJ 4th-highest in August | https://nj1015.com/u-s-foreclosures-...edium=referral


N.J.’s housing market is showing signs of softening - Updated: Jul. 26, 2022, 3:20 p.m.|Published: Jul. 06, 2022, 9:00 a.m.

[SchneesR]

Roselvr, thanks for the detailed reply. Unfortunately we have to move before next school year. I didn’t say I didn’t care about house prices. Quite the contrary. I was saying I wanted to take price out of the discussion for a moment, because I’m not getting the info I originally came her for, which is whether anyone knows of anything that could affect home values in the towns were looking at. Of course people can’t predict the future, but if someone knew that a dump was being put in one of these towns for instance, I’d want to know that before we buy there.