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Old 09-17-2008, 10:29 AM
 
Location: Jersey City
6,717 posts, read 17,203,773 times
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"What this study shows is that migration is a byproduct of prosperity and not tax policy," Corzine said.

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Old 09-17-2008, 10:30 AM
 
5,340 posts, read 13,010,775 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NatasNJ View Post
Never stated that NJ is full of WELL paying jobs. I was refuting
a statement by JamesBoyer that was incorrect. It was not meant as a blanket statement or a statistic to encompass everything. Simply to point out that NJ is NOT Trading 100K jobs going out of the state, for 25K jobs coming in to the state. The exact oposite is true. We are maintaining or growing the higher paying jobs and the 25k jobs people are leaving. Thats all.
But that is not true. Jobs and people are 2 different things. There has been a drastic cut in well paying jobs in the state. IN the past we'd see a lot of "job creation" stats that were high and they were often jobs that paid very low wages and often had no benefits. That's not a boon to our economy.

You HAVE to be rich or at least upper middle class to survive in NJ these days. The middle class is totally being squeezed out. I agree w/ Wiley, this is BAD. There are not a lot of $100 a year jobs being created in our state. We may have citizens with accumulated wealth, but we do not have a lot of good paying jobs available anymore. To justify that we need to do no more than look at our current unemployment rate.
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Old 09-17-2008, 10:31 AM
 
5,340 posts, read 13,010,775 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lammius View Post
"What this study shows is that migration is a byproduct of prosperity and not tax policy," Corzine said.

Gotta love that....
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Old 09-17-2008, 10:41 AM
 
1,340 posts, read 3,450,142 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EEEPNJ View Post
But that is not true. Jobs and people are 2 different things. There has been a drastic cut in well paying jobs in the state. IN the past we'd see a lot of "job creation" stats that were high and they were often jobs that paid very low wages and often had no benefits. That's not a boon to our economy.

You HAVE to be rich or at least upper middle class to survive in NJ these days. The middle class is totally being squeezed out. I agree w/ Wiley, this is BAD. There are not a lot of $100 a year jobs being created in our state. We may have citizens with accumulated wealth, but we do not have a lot of good paying jobs available anymore. To justify that we need to do no more than look at our current unemployment rate.
What is not true? You are all over the place going off on your soapbox about this and that. Go ahead and do that but not sure how it relates to my post.

I am sure we can all agree Jobs and People are two different things.
But the fact is NJ is losing MORE low paying jobs than high paying jobs. Yes NJ is losing people overall. And sure that is a byproduct of the cost of living here where the lower class or lower middle class is being squeezed. No doubt about it.
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Old 09-17-2008, 10:58 AM
 
Location: Rockaway, NJ
109 posts, read 313,461 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NatasNJ View Post
Never stated that NJ is full of WELL paying jobs. I was refuting
a statement by JamesBoyer that was incorrect. It was not meant as a blanket statement or a statistic to encompass everything. Simply to point out that NJ is NOT Trading 100K jobs going out of the state, for 25K jobs coming in to the state. The exact oposite is true. We are maintaining or growing the higher paying jobs and the 25k jobs people are leaving. Thats all.
You sure it's not the $100K a year jobs moving out and the $200K a year jobs moving in? How else is everyone affording these home prices? I love how everyone thinks a starter home should be $350K-$400K.
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Old 09-17-2008, 10:59 AM
 
Location: South Philly
1,943 posts, read 6,429,582 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NatasNJ View Post
I am sure we can all agree Jobs and People are two different things.
But the fact is NJ is losing MORE low paying jobs than high paying jobs. Yes NJ is losing people overall. And sure that is a byproduct of the cost of living here where the lower class or lower middle class is being squeezed. No doubt about it.
NJ isn't losing people. The population grows at about 3% per year.
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Old 09-17-2008, 11:04 AM
 
Location: 32°19'03.7"N 106°43'55.9"W
8,292 posts, read 18,236,883 times
Reputation: 7781
Quote:
Originally Posted by EEEPNJ View Post
Hate to burst your bubble, but this is about people migrating in and out of the state and their earnings. It is not about JOBS leaving the state or JOBS created in the state and what the earnings are for those JOBS.

Statistics are hard to come by for these trends but I'll try to get you some when time allows. But if you really think that high (or even decent) paying jobs are easy to come by in NJ I suggest you talk to HobokenGuy, my neighbor who has been looking for a year, my husband who was looking forever and took a pay cut to HAVE a job, and the increasing legion of those in our state who are on unemployment which does not yet INCLUDE the bunch that will be out of work with the problems all over the front pages THIS week.

There are very few GOOD PAYING jobs CREATED in NJ anymore, but many have been sent away to other states and other countries. When you see bloated stats (which we have not even seen recently) it is typically for SERVICE sector jobs which pay crap.

Again, I'm not professing to be an expert on economics here, but after working in HR for almost 20 years, I do know a thing or two about job trends. I do realize when I'm getting too many applications for $40k jobs from people who were making $90 previously. I do know when we can't place people because the economy is so good that there are no applicants (trust me, we are not there.)

Again, I have to hypothesize this is regionalized in the U.S. I noticed NJ's tourism, for instance, way down this year, when it came to people at the boardwalk, when I was there. However, I don't see it where I live now, and earlier this summer, when I was in Boulder/Denver, I sure didn't see any hints of a recession there either. However, I was also in Portland Oregon, and I'd have to say that even more than NJ, their economy is in the ****ter.

I can't wrap myself around it, as to why the nation's economy seems to be better off by geographic region, but I have to conclude its true. The only guess I can hazard (and I don't think it's a good one) is that the more overvalued the housing market was prior to the bubble, the worse off the economy is now.
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Old 09-17-2008, 11:10 AM
 
Location: North Carolina
6,959 posts, read 7,485,436 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wileynj View Post
I agree... I believe it's the lower middle class who are running away. Seems 350K home buyers are out and about as well as those looking to spend over 500K. The sellers of the 350K homes seem to be the one's leaving for southern States. They are typically the "upgraders" who get the market moving in NJ. Without them..the 500K people are the ones sitting on homes for sale at the moment. And if the 500K people can't sell they can't upgrade either...
We need to keep our working class in NJ if we want to survive and get the ball rolling again.
wileynj - You hit the ball out of the park with this answer! I'm one of those who sold and ran. That article about the lower middle class moving out being replaced with higher-income people is correct - at least for the time being. But there is still a net migration loss out of NJ. With the increasing "Walmartization" of working class people, it is only a matter of time until they leave. Couple that with retirees like myself looking for cheaper, greener pastures and that puts even more pressure on housing market prices. Now that mortgages are harder to get, the legs of the "starter home" market have been knocked out, and the number of people looking to trade up has been curtailed. The young couple that bought my home certainly had a better income than I do, but they were stretched to the limit in buying it. There will always be someone who can plop down cash for a house in Alpine or Rumson, but those types are few and far between.

Those middle-priced homes $400-$700K homes are going to be hard to unload. You never see the average middle-class family from Ohio or Missouri moving here because it's economic suicide. When they see the price of the standard 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home ( that's worth $225K there) and look at something similar in NJ and realize it costs 3x as much and their "big pay increase" at a NJ job will boost their $50K to $85K, they decide to forget about moving here in short order. You might get a few people from the left coast who think that a house in Ridgewood or Colts Neck is a bargain, but that's about it!

I just see the lower-middle class slowly oozing out of NJ, with their homes being bought by people who once might have bought at a higher price point, but can't because their job or income has been downsized or as they used to say on Wall St "rightsized". Those elderly in NJ that can't afford those $7000 to $10,000 tax bills will follow one of their kids to a lower cost of living state too! Just the other day, I read an obituary of one of those old folks in the Charlotte Observer and a half-hour later read the same guy's obit online in the Bergen Record. Don't get me wrong though, NJ is still a great place to live - if you can afford it! The problem is - that most lower-middle class people can't!
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Old 09-17-2008, 11:37 AM
 
Location: South Philly
1,943 posts, read 6,429,582 times
Reputation: 653
NJ population 1990 - 7,730,188
NJ population 2000 - 8,414,350
NJ population 2006 - 8,724,560

Quote:
Originally Posted by mike0421 View Post
I can't wrap myself around it, as to why the nation's economy seems to be better off by geographic region, but I have to conclude its true. The only guess I can hazard (and I don't think it's a good one) is that the more overvalued the housing market was prior to the bubble, the worse off the economy is now.
"National economy" is pretty vague. It's always been about regional economies. Things have been pretty bad for Buffalo, Cleveland and Detroit for a long time. Denver defied the recession of the late 80s/early 90s. During the great depression California was the land of milk & honey.

It really depends on what industries drive a place (mineral wealth can be a big factor), where they are in their own economic cycles when a national downturn happens, and how their own housing markets are positioned.
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Old 09-17-2008, 11:40 AM
 
5,340 posts, read 13,010,775 times
Reputation: 1174
Quote:
Originally Posted by NatasNJ View Post
What is not true? You are all over the place going off on your soapbox about this and that. Go ahead and do that but not sure how it relates to my post.

I am sure we can all agree Jobs and People are two different things.
But the fact is NJ is losing MORE low paying jobs than high paying jobs. Yes NJ is losing people overall. And sure that is a byproduct of the cost of living here where the lower class or lower middle class is being squeezed. No doubt about it.
It's not a soap box, it is a fact.

NJ is NOT gaining more $100 jobs. There may be more people earning $100k because of the middle class BEING squeezed out and only the people who are better off being able to afford to live here.

So say 5,000 people earning $30-50 K move out and 5,000 people earning $90-110 K move in. Yes, there are now more higher earners.

BUT that is not JOBS. Jobs that have been created in NJ are, overall, LOWER paying jobs.

Just in the IT, Engineering and HR fields alone... for the most part, GOOD jobs have been off-shored in very high numbers and they are NOT replaced with comparable jobs.

You are confusing the job market with the earnings of individuals LIVING in the state. They are two completely different things.
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