Do you think we are heading for a depression? (Hoboken: loan, food)

[JERSEY MAN]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

Hay, Flipping houses had nothing to do with this mess. I flipped 5 different houses that I never lived in. What I did do, was purchase homes which had been run down, in several cases Foreclosed on and sitting vacant, all were basically hurting the neighborhoods they were in. I restored them to premium condition, and put them on the market for good people to buy. In every case they sold and I made a profit. That is the American way, and in my view what I did was good for everyone involved.

There are multiple causes to all these problems.

• Greedy banks who would write any loan, just to get the processing fees.
• Greedy companies like Lehmans, Merrill, ... who way over extended themselves on leverage, trying to make bigger profits to make wall street happy.
• Stupid home buyers with poor credit, who were given the chance to buy a home, and straiten out their ways (pay their bills on time) who did not do so. I am sure some had legitimate problems, bit I know quite a number myself who are in trouble now, not because they lost a job, or had a medical emergency, but because they have a spending addiction, and when it came time to refinance the 2 year arm that was about the only loan people with bad credit back in 2004 and 2005 could get, well the banks looked harder at them, and said sub 600 credit score, not refinancing that looser!!

I am sorry, but I do not feel sorry for the fat cats who are loosing their jobs, and I do not feel sorry for the dead beats who have always been dead beats who are loosing their homes.

For those who had good credit and paid their bills, then had legitimate problems, I feel sorry for them, and strongly feel that they are the only ones deserving of a bail out.

I agree with most of your post EXCEPT the house flipper part. Maybe you did the right thing but many greedy people bought 4 or 5 condos in some areas of the country with shady loan deals to make their so called millions. No they are stuck with them and defaulting on them and companies like Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns, Fannie and Freddie, Aig are stuck with these loans. So when you say flippers had NOTHING to do with the mess we are in I disagree. The other part of the post is right on.

[DowntownJerseyCity]

Originally Posted by JERSEY MAN

I agree with most of your post EXCEPT the house flipper part. Maybe you did the right thing but many greedy people bought 4 or 5 condos in some areas of the country with shady loan deals to make their so called millions. No they are stuck with them and defaulting on them and companies like Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns, Fannie and Freddie, Aig are stuck with these loans. So when you say flippers had NOTHING to do with the mess we are in I disagree. The other part of the post is right on.

Flipping was the direct result of the shameless lending practices. In a traditional market, the profits flippers were seeing would never be reached.

[EEEPNJ]

I think there is plenty of blame to go around.

The ironic thing is there WAS so much warning. People just don't look at the obvious.

[DowntownJerseyCity]

Originally Posted by EEEPNJ

I think there is plenty of blame to go around.

The ironic thing is there WAS so much warning. People just don't look at the obvious.

Of course they didn't pay attention. Money, power, and greed are the biggest blinders out there.

I'm all for making a ton of cash, but some of these people are downright insane for thinking this was going to last forever.

[EEEPNJ]

You know one thing all this does though - at least for me - is it puts so much into perspective. It really does. I think it was the great philosopher WileyNJ who said "I was born poor and if I die poor so be it."

I mean, I was thinking. WORST case scenario...WORST case... if this goes on for years and we're hurting BADLY, so my family (mom, sis..) move in. We live together, pool bills, cut back. We won't die (God willing...if we have healthcare...)

Even now, we have not vacationed, we do more low key activities, we don't eat out as much, we've had "family game nights" and rent DVD's and eat popcorn. Go for walks, ride out bikes, talk, laugh.... you know what - this is the POSITIVE side of it.

I think it was the great philosopher Alex who said "Simplicity works folks."

Sometimes you NEED to get back to basics and what is TRULY important in life.

[Tungsten_Udder]

Yeah, I don't worry about it, either. Worst case scenario (well, other than being dead and I simply won't care about anything then, so why worry about that?) is that I'm jobless and homeless, and then I have absolutely no excuse to not do something I've always wanted to do--travel all the time, live in rural areas where I wouldn't be able to find work, etc.

[solibs]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

Though I agree with some of your points. Specifically a lot of people are going to lose a lot of equity because we're in the beginning of a fundamental shift of real estate values - away from the suburbs and towards cities and rail/commuter towns. Yes this has been happening in New Jersey for more than 2 years now, and will continue for quite a long time.

The rest of what you had to say in your post is just way over the top. I would not be surprised to see the US go into a recession, will it happen, I don't know, but the odds seem good. Will we go into a depression, I doubt it, the odds are much longer for that.

What else did i say in my post? That manufacturing is starting to realign?
That our economy is in a lot of trouble because of energy insecurity? I don't think those are over the top claims or that they're even inaccurate. One can point to falling oil prices but that's largely because demand has started to fall, in part because Americans are driving a lot less and in part because our economy is sputtering. But we're still talking $3/gallon. That's better than $4 but it's still too much for an economy built around $1/gallon gas. If/when demand returns prices will return to check the economy. The only way around it is to redevelop our rail and port facilities and to retool our auto fleet and to continue our reductions in driving. That's going to take a long time.

We can disagree whether or not we're headed for a recession or a depression. Everything that I've read points towards a repeat of the 70s but with deeper structural problems. So I think it's going to be worse than a recession. I hope I'm wrong.

To answer a question as to why look for work elsewhere - I say why not? There's a lot of work abroad in my field. The rental market is strong and my house is in a good location so I wouldn't have a problem renting it. With the weak dollar and generally higher wages because of the higher demand in other countries I'll be able to save a lot more money. €1000 is $1425. £1000 is $1800. I don't mind working hard. I just want to get paid for it and I don't want to still be working hard when i'm 70.

That's how a free market is supposed to work. If capital is free to go anywhere in the world it wants to then labor should be free to follow it. If more americans start following jobs to the UK, Ireland, Canada, Australia, etc. that just means less competition here at home and hopefully, higher wages as a result.

And honestly, Los Angeles is just as far and almost as foreign as Dublin.

[stevemorse]

what do you mean by spending addiction?? I am wondering exactly what they would spend on to put themselves in that situation. I am curious. I mean spending addiction and buying what??

[JERSEY MAN]

Originally Posted by JERSEY MAN

Agreed 100 percent. The US has lived over it's head for the last 15 years. People claimed they were millionaires because their homes at the time were worth a million. Hank Greenberg the ex CEO of AIG lost about 500 million. Maybe he should have loaned his own company the 500 million and not us the taxpayers.

Correction it was just reported that Greenberg has lost 6 BILLION dollars. Maybe that thief should have given AIG a bridge loan. I feel sorry for the working stiffs at these companies but this is one of the reasons these companies are going belly up. Read again, I SAID 6 BILLION IN A WEEK. You think he was eating happy meals at Wendys like the rest of us. This is pathetic.

[njkate]

Originally Posted by stevemorse

what do you mean by spending addiction?? I am wondering exactly what they would spend on to put themselves in that situation. I am curious. I mean spending addiction and buying what??

To start..houses they could not afford...I see that in the McMansions by me right here in Jefferson, now they have for sale signs and when I check the tax records they are selling BELOW the assesed value....some of these starter castles, when the people open their front doors...no furniture, 6 years later not 1 window covering

How the hell do you buy a house in the 500-600k range and not be able to afford window coverings and furniture??? They jacked the real estate all over the lake up up up

For me being here 20 years I gain but most who bought in the last 5-6 years are losing right now and losing big time