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Old 02-03-2009, 07:29 PM
 
744 posts, read 1,291,207 times
Reputation: 182

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Older&Wiser View Post
Mr Bid Half,

Hope the Mods don't take this as personal attack.......

I think that with all your postings about
"******Bid half off peak*******"
you are adding to the housing woes of a lot a of folks. If this is your opinion could you please tone it down; the country is in bad enough shape. It is almost like you are taking pleasure in it by repeating that phrase.
Yes far better to tone it down and hope that even more people destroy their financial well being and cause more loans to default by buying over priced homes and hence worsening the problem.
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Old 02-03-2009, 08:02 PM
 
179 posts, read 662,241 times
Reputation: 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by sholden View Post
Yes far better to tone it down and hope that even more people destroy their financial well being and cause more loans to default by buying over priced homes and hence worsening the problem.
No, better to tone it down than adding to hysteria by screaming every time you post to:
**********bid half********
**********bid half*******
*****bid half*********
*******bid half***********
*********bid half*********

Peoiple don't have to read that to understand there is a problem going on. We're bombarded with it every time we turn on the news or read a paper. It's almost like the poster is taking glee in knowing that housing posts are going down. Everyone is, or is going to suffer. Let's try to be a bit positve.
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Old 02-03-2009, 08:10 PM
 
263 posts, read 487,604 times
Reputation: 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Older&Wiser View Post
Peoiple don't have to read that to understand there is a problem going on. We're bombarded with it every time we turn on the news or read a paper. It's almost like the poster is taking glee in knowing that housing posts are going down. Everyone is, or is going to suffer. Let's try to be a bit positve.
You are projecting on me. I don't see how I am taking glee. Also I cannot see why I am not being positive. Everything's on your mind. Why does it bother you that I believe that one should not bid more than half off the peak prices of 2006? Why should I be bothered when someone keeps repeating that he's older & wiser, when perhaps this is not right?
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Old 02-03-2009, 08:18 PM
 
Location: NJ
12,284 posts, read 33,138,570 times
Reputation: 5268
Quote:
Originally Posted by Older&Wiser View Post
No, better to tone it down than adding to hysteria by screaming every time you post to:
**********bid half********
**********bid half*******
*****bid half*********
*******bid half***********
*********bid half*********

Peoiple don't have to read that to understand there is a problem going on. We're bombarded with it every time we turn on the news or read a paper. It's almost like the poster is taking glee in knowing that housing posts are going down. Everyone is, or is going to suffer. Let's try to be a bit positve.
Is there something inherently wrong with wanting completely overinflated prices to come down, so an average buyer can afford a home? I guess you didn't derive any happiness when gas dropped nearly $2.50 a gallon?

Or are the only people we need to care about are those who purchased at peak?

FTR - I feel terrible for those who bought at the height, and, for whatever reason, BEYOND THEIR CONTROL, are selling at a loss. But having prices drop to historical norms is not a bad thing, IMHO.
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Old 02-03-2009, 08:31 PM
 
526 posts, read 1,294,017 times
Reputation: 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by tahiti View Post
Is there something inherently wrong with wanting completely overinflated prices to come down, so an average buyer can afford a home? I guess you didn't derive any happiness when gas dropped nearly $2.50 a gallon?

Or are the only people we need to care about are those who purchased at peak?

FTR - I feel terrible for those who bought at the height, and, for whatever reason, BEYOND THEIR CONTROL, are selling at a loss. But having prices drop to historical norms is not a bad thing, IMHO.
Not inherently, but there does seem to be a little glee in the chanting, Never mind that every few percentage points further down the real estate markets accross the country get pushed down, also makes it harder for the economy to improve.

The values of peoples homes, has a big effect on what happens in this economy going forward, even the Republicans in Congress recognize that, which is why the Republican Senator from Nevada, John Ensign was on CNBC today saying that Obama's stimulus plan should include a $15,000 tax credit to anyone purchasing a home.
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Old 02-03-2009, 08:48 PM
 
263 posts, read 487,604 times
Reputation: 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesBoyer View Post
Never mind that every few percentage points further down the real estate markets accross the country get pushed down, also makes it harder for the economy to improve.
Wrong. It is harder for the people but it will be easier for the economy to improve. There will be a return to historical norms (see half off peak) sooner or later, harder or easier.

Also a $15000 deduction is nothing compare to a house price inflated by $150,000. This deduction makes no sense for NJ prices. We are not idiots. And anyway why should taxpayers bailout re agents, homeowners, and mortgage brokers through this deduction? Enough already.

Last edited by halfoffpeak; 02-03-2009 at 08:58 PM..
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Old 02-03-2009, 09:09 PM
 
71 posts, read 255,986 times
Reputation: 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by halfoffpeak View Post
Right and so is 2000. So?
Actually, it's not. But my point is that the graph has nothing to do with the data you presented earlier.

SO (to answer your question), it's fine to have your opinion on the market, but don't try to hide behind the Case-Shiller data, because I don't think it's saying what you think it's saying.

As with just about anything else that's cyclical, the pendulum swings too far one way, and then it swings too far the other way. I'd be pretty surprised if housing prices dropped 50%, but I'd never say that it can't happen. Still, if someone finds a house they really like, and takes your advice to "******BID HALF OF PEAK*******", well, those negotiations probably aren't going to go anywhere.
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Old 02-03-2009, 09:33 PM
 
263 posts, read 487,604 times
Reputation: 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcf17 View Post
SO (to answer your question), it's fine to have your opinion on the market, but don't try to hide behind the Case-Shiller data, because I don't think it's saying what you think it's saying.
Well, the graph I presented IS the Case Shiller index adjusted for inflation as you asked. It also accounts for prices since 1890 as you asked. It is also saying what I am saying. How am I hiding? I put up a graph and willing to argue and discuss. You call this hiding?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcf17 View Post
As with just about anything else that's cyclical, the pendulum swings too far one way, and then it swings too far the other way. I'd be pretty surprised if housing prices dropped 50%, but I'd never say that it can't happen. Still, if someone finds a house they really like, and takes your advice to "******BID HALF OF PEAK*******", well, those negotiations probably aren't going to go anywhere.
Exactly things go too far the other way too. But my point was that 50% off the peak is the norm NOT far the other way.

As for the negotiations, they may not go anywhere right now but they will go if one is willing to wait. Houses are rarely unique. If a seller does not budge move to the one with a comparable house who does. Buying a house does not have to be an emotional choice as you suggest.

Last edited by halfoffpeak; 02-03-2009 at 10:37 PM..
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Old 02-03-2009, 10:21 PM
 
744 posts, read 1,291,207 times
Reputation: 182
Quote:
Originally Posted by Older&Wiser View Post
No, better to tone it down than adding to hysteria by screaming every time you post to:
**********bid half********
**********bid half*******
*****bid half*********
*******bid half***********
*********bid half*********

Peoiple don't have to read that to understand there is a problem going on. We're bombarded with it every time we turn on the news or read a paper. It's almost like the poster is taking glee in knowing that housing posts are going down. Everyone is, or is going to suffer. Let's try to be a bit positve.
Mentioning that prices will likely fall to sustainable levels is being positive. Everyone is going to suffer as the US economy continues to implode, but falling house prices is one of the few benefits.

Sure it sucks for people who bought during the bubble and didn't offload to "a greater fool", but for everyone else it's a good thing. Affordable housing is beneficial to society. And people waking up to the fact that living beyond your means via debt is detrimental to society (and especially the next generation) is a good thing too.

House prices falling will not make me suffer, as one example. so not everyone is going to suffer. I don't own a house but I'd like to buy one - I didn't arrive in the US until 2004 so houses have been obviously way over priced for the entire time I've been here (if they weren't I'd own one...) So lower prices are good for me, I'm pretty sure there are a lot of other people who would like to buy a house but are not willing to take on obscene amounts of debt no matter what the "monthly payment" happens to be.

Housing prices falling are good for America (no matter how much the politicians and bankers cry otherwise) speculative bubbles are bad they cause the limited funds that can be invested in activities that produce wealth (production, research, etc) to be poured into non-productive assets. America needs investment in productive assets if it has any chance of getting out from under the mountain of debt it has gotten itself under.

House prices not falling will not stop the recession America has to have, if that's what you are hoping. In fact that's the disaster the politicians are setting us up for, recession, job losses everywhere, and housing too expensive for those who do have (lower paying due to said recession) jobs.

So how is saying "house prices are still over priced, but are very likely to come down to sustainable levels" anything but positive?
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Old 02-03-2009, 10:40 PM
 
744 posts, read 1,291,207 times
Reputation: 182
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesBoyer View Post
The values of peoples homes, has a big effect on what happens in this economy going forward, even the Republicans in Congress recognize that, which is why the Republican Senator from Nevada, John Ensign was on CNBC today saying that Obama's stimulus plan should include a $15,000 tax credit to anyone purchasing a home.
And anyone with even a single brain cell should be able to see that such a tax credit would either have to be maintained for all time, or as soon as it was removed home prices would drop $15,000. So all it does is delay the inevitable correction that needs to happen.

The value of people's homes only has a big effect because people thought they were wealthier than they were and hence went into way too much debt. The solution isn't to make those debt levels normal or to make those inflated prices normal. A house is a place to live, they need to be affordable.

Taking the advice of the idiots who put us in this mess (the politicians who thought that artificially low interests rates and the corresponding bubbles across asset classes (houses, stocks, bonds, oil, other commodities) seems a rather foolish path - though it'll almost certainly be the path we go down.

Especially a senator from Nevada, do you get more housing bubble central?
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