Asking Price vs. Offer Price vs. Sale Price - how much? (sales, real estate)

[Scott99999]

Hello,

I've been looking at asking prices vs. offer and sale prices and I've seen home prices in the Rockland, NY area go anywhere from 10-15% below asking to asking price.

Friends and even real estate professionals that I know have been suggesting that it's pretty much a "free-for-all right" now, and going 20% below with an offer - is no longer considered unreasonable or insulting.

Does anyone have any recent experience in negotiations, or sales vs. offer and asking prices?

I'm curious to know what people are seeing anecdotally.

[brook2ga]

Statistics are inaccurate due to the fact that many people are re-listing houses at lower prices. Considering this crazy market, it probably can't hurt to make an 80% offer. Heck, I had a 73% offer back in April!

[Scott99999]

Yes, I've spoken to four people in real estate (3 agents and 1 mortgage broker) in the last few weeks, as well as a friend who is actively buying and talking to agents.

We're looking in the $500-$650k range, and the typical advice has been to offer anywhere from $50k-$100k below asking. That seems pretty shocking to me, with the traditional concept of sellers getting "insulted" and turning up their noses, but many houses have already been adjusted multiple times to the tune of $100k-$200k already. I'd hate to be someone who bought at the peak.

If things are continuing to decline, it seems like you HAVE to offer significantly below asking with consideration for comparables in the area, just to cover your anticipated loss in value and to make sure the house appraises.

[davenj08]

two similar houses could be listed at different prices - one fairly near market value and one inflated. on the inflated one you may give a 20% lowball but that wouldn't be justified on the fairly priced house.

i wouldnt go purely by the 'listed price'. rather go by recent home sales numbers. based on the sale dates & price of comparable house in last 3-6 months, adjust for timing & housing decline.

[clevedark]

When we bought our first apartment in the mid 90s the general rule was offer 10% below asking.

[halfoffpeak]

At the moment the market is an upheaval and declining in NJ.
Ignore asking price. Bid half off the price of a comparable house
in 2006. This way you get the historically average price although
it might get lower.

**********Bid half off peak******************************

[BobKovacs]

Originally Posted by halfoffpeak

At the moment the market is an upheaval and declining in NJ.
Ignore asking price. Bid half off the price of a comparable house
in 2006. This way you get the historically average price although
it might get lower.

**********Bid half off peak******************************

Sounds like some really scientific research went into determining that formula

[halfoffpeak]

Originally Posted by BobKovacs

Sounds like some really scientific research went into determining that formula

Actually it did. It is based on various indices including the Case Schiller index.
That's the only strategy that guarantees that you get a historical *average* price.
There's a lot of scientific research behind it.
PM me if you need the numbers.
If you have a better valuation let us know so we can discuss it.

**********Bid half off peak******************************

[Lusitan]

Originally Posted by halfoffpeak

Actually it did. It is based on various indices including the Case Schiller index.

Who are these Case Schiller guys? And if they're so smart, why didn't they predict this massively inflated housing bubble in the first place?

...

Oh wait. They did.

[davenj08]

can you please share some more information on your research? i doubt prices have decreased any more than 20-25% off the peak 2006 price range in most strong markets in NJ (e.g. bridgewater, princeton, morristown, etc).