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Well as someone who seems to have a more complex understanding of the situation than the last poster, I am just curious as to what you disagree with. You said you disagree with most of my post, some of which is opinion and some of which is fact. Could you be more specific?
Market dynamics are an interesting thing. I understand our government is printing and borrowing absurb amounts of money to finance our debt, which its attempting to use like a crutch to hold up our sagging banks and economy. I sincerely hope China does not decide to unload the massive amount of US debt it holds, because if it does we are not going to experience inflation, but rather hyper-inflation. Imagine paying $20 for a loaf of bread that currently costs $3, or $200 to fill up your gas tank? It will happen if the dollar collapses.
Back to real esate -- Really, the whole housing bubble is really quite a nightmare for our government at this point. I argue that the rapid increase (almost 2-2.5x) in value we saw between 2003-2006 was not a result of the free market (supply and demand), but rather form of indirect market manipulation, created by Greenspan after 9/11 when he dropped fed borrowing rates exceptionally low in order to keep the economy from slipping into a deep recession. Berenake is doing more of the same right now, this time supported by the actual administration, for much of the same reason. I cannot say I support what they and doing, but I also can't say I'm completely against it either. As a prospective home buyer, I want prices to decline, however, I fear the continued downward spiral of the economy is going to cause severe problems. What most people don't realize is that continued home price declines, and foreclosures are basically going to make the major US banks insolvent, which isn't good for anyone. Heck, you can't buy a house with money that you can't withdrawal from a bank, or buy it with money that is worthless.
Market dynamics are an interesting thing. I understand our government is printing and borrowing absurb amounts of money to finance our debt, which its attempting to use like a crutch to hold up our sagging banks and economy. I sincerely hope China does not decide to unload the massive amount of US debt it holds, because if it does we are not going to experience inflation, but rather hyper-inflation. Imagine paying $20 for a loaf of bread that currently costs $3, or $200 to fill up your gas tank? It will happen if the dollar collapses.
Back to real esate -- Really, the whole housing bubble is really quite a nightmare for our government at this point. I argue that the rapid increase (almost 2-2.5x) in value we saw between 2003-2006 was not a result of the free market (supply and demand), but rather form of indirect market manipulation, created by Greenspan after 9/11 when he dropped fed borrowing rates exceptionally low in order to keep the economy from slipping into a deep recession. Berenake is doing more of the same right now, this time supported by the actual administration, for much of the same reason. I cannot say I support what they and doing, but I also can't say I'm completely against it either. As a prospective home buyer, I want prices to decline, however, I fear the continued downward spiral of the economy is going to cause severe problems. What most people don't realize is that continued home price declines, and foreclosures are basically going to make the major US banks insolvent, which isn't good for anyone. Heck, you can't buy a house with money that you can't withdrawal from a bank, or that is worthless.
I am in 100% agreement. Except that because of the manipulation, the market was never truly a free market.
And don't forget during Clinton's terms, when he dropped taxes on resale profits (within certain restrictions). People starting going crazy buying and selling then.
It was a pleasure educating you in what market value, especially today, really means! Hope you now 'get' that it has nothing to do with anything 'personal.'
I was never 'on the hook' by you so to speak (leave your ego at the door please)...just blasted a few big holes in your impotent arguments, along with a lot of help from the forum! (Thank you all!!!)
Just to open up a little can of worms...BTW, when was the last time you were involved in a real estate transaction? Or where you ever?
Your perspective is interesting, I believe a lot of realtors share your opinion. The realtor that I've been working with always says if you price the house right it will sell... I think he's right. Even in today's market, if you get the price right the house will go, you might even get multiple bidders. I've read some realtors are using a strategy which prices the house lower then other houses on the market in an effort to encourage multiple bidders and drive up the selling price. I think that's pretty slick.
One thing I will say though, Jeff Otteau recently mentioned he believed houses are now falling at 1-2% per month, not .5%. I suppose its dependent on the local market.
I actually do feel for most of you realtors now... you gotta eat, too. It must be a tough job.
Two of my customers have been outbid a number of times in the past few months. A brokerage in Essex County is using the strategy of pricing their listings just about 6% under market value; most if not all of their listings have sold for over asking. I'd say more strategic than slick though...the lower the price, the larger the buyer pool, more interest is generated in the home and multiple offers are much more likely.
Last word I read from Otteau was a 1% monthly decline; you have to factor that in with pricing as well...you should consider attending the spring seminar. Mr. Syms was on the money when he said the educated consumer was the best customer.
Ahh cmon folks.. Calling AntoinetteNJ hostile and angry is a bit much. Maybe you need a drink to relax.. Good post AntoinetteNJ. Gave me a laugh. I can see how you feel. I know a few realtors myself and understand what they go through..driving everywhere in short notice to just look around..weekends, weeknights..you name it..its a tough job..
I still believe in the Triple D's.Those who are selling are either: Divorcing, Debt, or Dead...There really is no other reason to be selling.
Thanks Todd! Honestly, anger is such a waste of energy...ESPECIALLY over a forum; I prefer to channel in more positive ways.
However, there are other pressing situations where someone would want to buy: relocation, a growing family and/or downsizing. Life goes on!
I think my question to you got buried in the recent avalanche of postings.
Would you say that a house priced right in today's market in NJ will sell?
If that's so, that brings us right back to 1999.
Clive, so sorry, yes your question did get lost in the flurry. Pricing is the most essential element to a successful sale, and for the most amount of money. Prime example both in the same neighborhood, both sales within weeks of each other:
41 Hinchman Road, Denville. Colonial, 4BRs / 1BA / 2 Car Garage, updated kitchen, finished basement. Original list price: $534,900. Final Sale Price: $415,000. Days on the market: 237.
26 Snyder Avenue, Denville. Colonial, 3 BRs / 1.1BA / No Garage, updated kitchen, unfinished basement. Original list price: $449,000. Final Sale Price: $427,000. Days on the market: 35.
So not only does the homeowner net more, and can dispense with the lowball offers that are tied to excessive DOM, but they have the security of following through with whatever plans they have for their family, which is priceless.
Certainly it's not unreasonable to believe the predictions of 2003 pricing, well before the ridiculous market escalation. 1999 seems to be quite a stretch of imagination when I consider most of the new construction of colonial developments that was done during that time in my area sold for $250-350K and are now getting $525K (down about $100K from peak).
It was a pleasure educating you in what market value, especially today, really means! Hope you now 'get' that it has nothing to do with anything 'personal.'
I was never 'on the hook' by you so to speak (leave your ego at the door please)...just blasted a few big holes in your impotent arguments, along with a lot of help from the forum! (Thank you all!!!)
Just to open up a little can of worms...BTW, when was the last time you were involved in a real estate transaction? Or where you ever?
This is the most ridiculous post I have ever read. I dont think there is very much that you can possibly "educate" me about, ESPECIALLY not free market economics. The reason I let you off the hook was because it was so obvious to anybody who read this thread that you were clearly outmatched and I didn't want to kick you when you were down. Anyone who mildly (and I do mean MILDLY) came to your aid, was only feeling sorry for you, as was I. Now if you want to have a real conversation about market factors, finance, and macroeconomics, I am willing to start one now, but be ready to be bogged down with many words that will seem foreign to you. I hope your search engine is revved up and ready to go.
I would love some examples of how you "blasted" ANY holes in my "impotent" argument. In fact, just the opposite. Your frustration over your own lack of ability to make a clear and coherent argument is evident in your quickness to change the tone of the argument from academic to personal, not just with me, but with other posters as well. It didn't get personal until YOU made it so. So I will respond in a personal tone instead of an academic tone as I dont think "academic" is a term that has come up too often in your life. You constantly make statements that are in complete contradiction to FACTS not opinions and you misuse economic terminology. In fact, there is not one single point that you were right about. If you are an example of a successful (and I wonder about that} real estate agent, no wonder the real estate market is in shambles.
"Just to open up a little can of worms...BTW, when was the last time you were involved in a real estate transaction? Or where you ever?"
Are you really this obtuse? How many medical doctors do you know that have never owned real estate? Hell, some minimal effort on your part would have led you to my profile, which would have led you to my photo albums, one of which would show you pictures of my vacation home. I didn't build it with my bare hands.
{OK. This is the part where you call me names and storm off, vowing not to talk to me because I am an "energy vampire" or other such nonsense.}
This is the most ridiculous post I have ever read. I dont think there is very much that you can possibly "educate" me about, ESPECIALLY not free market economics. The reason I let you off the hook was because it was so obvious to anybody who read this thread that you were clearly outmatched and I didn't want to kick you when you were down. Anyone who mildly (and I do mean MILDLY) came to your aid, was only feeling sorry for you, as was I. Now if you want to have a real conversation about market factors, finance, and macroeconomics, I am willing to start one now, but be ready to be bogged down with many words that will seem foreign to you. I hope your search engine is revved up and ready to go.
I would love some examples of how you "blasted" ANY holes in my "impotent" argument. In fact, just the opposite. Your frustration over your own lack of ability to make a clear and coherent argument is evident in your quickness to change the tone of the argument from academic to personal, not just with me, but with other posters as well. It didn't get personal until YOU made it so. So I will respond in a personal tone instead of an academic tone as I dont think "academic" is a term that has come up too often in your life. You constantly make statements that are in complete contradiction to FACTS not opinions and you misuse economic terminology. In fact, there is not one single point that you were right about. If you are an example of a successful (and I wonder about that} real estate agent, no wonder the real estate market is in shambles.
"Just to open up a little can of worms...BTW, when was the last time you were involved in a real estate transaction? Or where you ever?"
Are you really this obtuse? How many medical doctors do you know that have never owned real estate? Hell, some minimal effort on your part would have led you to my profile, which would have led you to my photo albums, one of which would show you pictures of my vacation home. I didn't build it with my bare hands.
{OK. This is the part where you call me names and storm off, vowing not to talk to me because I am an "energy vampire" or other such nonsense.}
Are you reading different posts that I am? You are so OFF base it is not even funny. What am I missing here?
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