Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > New Jersey
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 03-23-2009, 03:31 PM
 
105 posts, read 329,214 times
Reputation: 21

Advertisements

We are looking into the possibility of purchasing a home in Glen Ridge/Westfield/Millburn/Summit, (preference in that order, beginning with GR). We are looking at homes below the 500K mark. We currently rent in Summit, and while we are open to staying here, it is not our first choice. Also, their doesn't seem to be anything in the mid $400K and lower that isn't an apartment or a fixer upper in Summit. Looking at a few of the online home sale sites, it seems that you can get a little more your $ in GR, but then the taxes are much higher.

Can you tell me about the homes sales in those areas, for the last 2 years, current and opinion on future prices? Our neighbor is a realtor and mentioned that Summit home prices have not hit bottom, but the surrounding areas, have somewhat stabalized. Is that an accurate opnion? We'd like to purchase a home at the earliest by this time next year and at the latest 2 years from now. Can you also clarify about the property tax deduction in NJ? I read online that there is a proposal to eliminate this deduction for a period of time..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 03-23-2009, 03:48 PM
 
2,312 posts, read 7,500,795 times
Reputation: 908
I would wait before buying in Summit. It's fortunes are closely tied to Wall Street and if there is any kind of bonus snatching by the government going on this year that town will be very hard hit.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-23-2009, 03:50 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,257,886 times
Reputation: 605
Quote:
Originally Posted by minymom View Post
Can you tell me about the homes sales in those areas, for the last 2 years, current and opinion on future prices?
These areas are historically pretty upscale, I think they were always pretty expensive.

Having stated that, the whole market in NJ is inflated. See my thread

//www.city-data.com/forum/new-j...-high-not.html

for an overview on how the market has blown up like a balloon.

For more local data, see:

(1) trulia.com and other websites for recent sales data.
(2) New Jersey by the Numbers - NJ.com average sales data for different areas.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-23-2009, 03:52 PM
 
505 posts, read 1,757,468 times
Reputation: 208
Quote:
Originally Posted by minymom View Post
We are looking into the possibility of purchasing a home in Glen Ridge/Westfield/Millburn/Summit, (preference in that order, beginning with GR). We are looking at homes below the 500K mark. We currently rent in Summit, and while we are open to staying here, it is not our first choice. Also, their doesn't seem to be anything in the mid $400K and lower that isn't an apartment or a fixer upper in Summit. Looking at a few of the online home sale sites, it seems that you can get a little more your $ in GR, but then the taxes are much higher.

Can you tell me about the homes sales in those areas, for the last 2 years, current and opinion on future prices? Our neighbor is a realtor and mentioned that Summit home prices have not hit bottom, but the surrounding areas, have somewhat stabalized. Is that an accurate opnion? We'd like to purchase a home at the earliest by this time next year and at the latest 2 years from now. Can you also clarify about the property tax deduction in NJ? I read online that there is a proposal to eliminate this deduction for a period of time..
I'm gonna stick to the first paragraph since the second one is and has been a veritable pinless grenade on these boards.

Honestly, I think that in these communities, less than $500k, if you are even able to find a house, it might need some work because these are highly desirable communities.

Taxes in all of these locales are astronomical, but their schools are superb. I think (without looking) all 4 of these school systems are in the top 10 districts in NJ (NJ Monthly).

To get more bang for your buck, I might recommend some other places that might not be AS good, but you still get an excellent living and learning experience.

Verona
Cedar Grove
Montclair

Those three come to mind immediately and I am sure others will chime in with other suggestions.

As for when to buy- all estimations have the NJ market slipping in the next year or so due to all of the Wall St layoffs trickling down. However, recent data shows otherwise. Who do you believe? Your guess is as good as mine.

My recommendation would be to go see a realtor and just keep your ear to the ground to see what is out on the market. If the perfect house comes along at an excellent price and you feel comfortable, then pick it up. But if you can wait, that might be better.

Don't be afraid to buy. Don't be afraid to wait. This is probably the ultimate test of patience, other than parenthood and going to the DMV.

Best of luck.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-23-2009, 03:56 PM
 
1,552 posts, read 4,620,525 times
Reputation: 509
Well, as for opinions, you'll find tons of them around here. We've had a lot of discussion on the message board lately about home prices in NJ. Prices were predicted to fall 25% in 2009 alone (by Fortune Magazine) in the North Jersey area, and things have indeed been heading steadily downward. As some have said, all the action by the govt may turn this into a much slower bleeding process, but the end destination is the same.

My personal opinion: we'll see years (at least two more) of continued year-over-year price declines, which will be followed by either (a) flat prices for many more years or (b) continued decreases in prices. Best case scenario: prices fall for another two years, and then flatline, and stay flat for another few years (of course, inflation will be rising, so home values will be falling even at a flat line price).

I don't think anywhere in North Jersey has stabilized, and I don't think Summit is any better or worse off than any of the other towns you mention. We're still in the early phases of the housing collapse in NJ. There's no reason to believe that you won't be able to get much more for your money in Summit this time next year, and even more for your money the year after that. So don't rule out Summit if you like it -- prices are going to fall there as well.

It's good you're thinking to purchase at the earliest by next year; prices next year will be much lower than they are today. Price two years from now will be much lower than one year from now. I think the longer you can wait, the better. Not to mention, you'll be much more certain of where you want to live after you have some time to settle in and get to know the area.

Zillow dot com, trulia dot com, njrereport dot com ... all of these have information about home sales history and predictions.

Just be patient, read up on what's really going on in the housing market and the economy in general, and keep saving for that down payment. Good luck!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-23-2009, 08:34 PM
 
105 posts, read 329,214 times
Reputation: 21
Thanks so much for your opinions. Our rental is for another year anyhow, so we really want to take this time to be certain where we're going invest our dollar. My hunch was pretty on target with many of yours about waiting, so it is good to hear some substance behind it. Though we wonder about the ratio of $$ spent on rent vs. on a mortgage. In the end, waiting will work in our favor, I suppose - in regards to getting into the towns I mentioned above. We've only been in in Summit for 5 weeks and we've seen 3 houses go up for sale in the last 3 weeks around our block. We thought this kind of stuff was really only happening in Michigan b/c of the Big 3/economy...interesting to see what will happen over the next year. I'll be looking forward to reading the posts about housing prices in NJ over this period as well.

thanks too for the other online sources for resources on info for NJ home prices...will check them out.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-23-2009, 10:19 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
4,152 posts, read 5,013,144 times
Reputation: 4203
Quote:
Originally Posted by clevedark View Post
I would wait before buying in Summit. It's fortunes are closely tied to Wall Street
LOL

...I remember when AT&T split up, how everyone said Berkeley Heights, New Providence, and all the surrounding towns, would go belly up.

obviously, the towns maintained their status.

there aren't any "mining towns" in NJ, the upscale neighborhoods will always remain so, regardless of the employment focus of its residents -- if the Wall Streeters leave Summit, they'll be replaced by some other affluent demographic.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-24-2009, 06:52 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,257,886 times
Reputation: 605
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
LOL
obviously, the towns maintained their status.

there aren't any "mining towns" in NJ, the upscale neighborhoods will always remain so, regardless of the employment focus of its residents -- if the Wall Streeters leave Summit, they'll be replaced by some other affluent demographic.
Median sales prices there are already 40% off peak.

What demographic can spend millions on housing ?

No-one is saying that Summit will be abandoned any time soon. The rank order of these towns will largely be preserved, but the top end of the market is falling harder than the mid to low end, because upper-middle class salaries are more stable than take home pay of CEOs and investment bankers. I read an article that stated that top end places in Manhattan have fallen 60% in price (e,g, from about 10 million to about 4 million).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-24-2009, 09:10 AM
 
1,552 posts, read 4,620,525 times
Reputation: 509
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
there aren't any "mining towns" in NJ, the upscale neighborhoods will always remain so, regardless of the employment focus of its residents -- if the Wall Streeters leave Summit, they'll be replaced by some other affluent demographic.
Did you really think this through?

As "Wall Streeters" lose their jobs or see their incomes fall, who exactly will take their place?

Either you believe (a) that there is a group of affluent people here in the NY region standing at the ready to take their place, or (b) a whole bunch of new affluent people will emerge in this region.

If you believe "A" above, then let me ask you -- where do these "replacement affluent people" live right now? Are they living in other affluent towns? If so, won't there be a vacancy if they picked up and moved to a different town, thus resulting in zero net gain for the affluent towns? Or do you suppose that there is a class of affluent people living in non-affluent towns, and if so, why on Earth do you suppose that to be the case?

If you belive "B" above, then please enlighten us as to the new affluent class that's going to suddenly spring up overnight to replace the Wall Streeters as the financial sector crumbles around here.

As Elflord says, the relative rank of these towns will always be high, that is, they will always be nicer/more expensive places to live in comparison with other towns. But the entire region is sinking in value. The million dollar home in Westfield will always be nicer than the 500K home in Clark; it's just that by the time this is all over, the house in Westfield will be 500K and the house in Clark will be 250K.

Nothing needs to change in terms of the relative positions, but in absolute terms (and in real dollar value) the value of both will sink.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-24-2009, 10:03 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,257,886 times
Reputation: 605
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lusitan View Post
Or do you suppose that there is a class of affluent people living in non-affluent towns, and if so, why on Earth do you suppose that to be the case?
I would suppose that, though the reasons for my supposition don't really help JG183.

My household income is above the median for Short Hills and I live in Jersey City JSQ (one of those places everyone is advised to "stay away from")
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:




Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > New Jersey

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top