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Next week it Case-Shiller for January time - one that actually doesn't have skin in the game. The YoY number in that report is still a rather large drop.
oh lord, where would we all be without the Case-Shiller index ?!!!
Please !
It's a lagging summary, at best. What can/should you take away from any of it ? if (as many of the bears on here contend) inflation/re-flation is coming, then buying a "deflated" home makes more sense than ever. Waiting for a bottom is a fool's game. People are starting to realize that the sky isn't falling. FYI: taking Phoenix as an example... prices have fallen by about equal percentage to the '80-'82 "bubble". Current home prices are "trading" at a proportional discount to the current U.S. stock market trough. There is no indication of how much of this data is driven by foreclosure sales -- Case-Schiller tracks the same properties over time. At least not auction and bank takeover "prices"... only sales to real buyers. Foreclosures have a way of driving surrounding values down, like a going out of business sale deprives adjacent businesses of sales (for fair value).
Yes. It is a lagging summary especially since it just came out today for Jan 2009.
It along with ALL OTHER real estate measuring devices show prices are going down and are continuing to go down.
Waiting for a bottom is a fools game? So are you saying we should all run out there and buy a house? While jobs are being lost and are expected to continue to be lost for the remainder of this year? Would you have said the samething a year ago? When prices for example in PHX have dropped 35% since then? Would they have been smart buying last Jan?
Waiting till prudent and trying to time the bottom are 2 major differences and most people suggest being prudent with purchasing in todays market. Timing the bottom is dumb luck.
But then again buyer credits and historic low interest rates along with already plummeted house prices and yet the prices continue to drop. Better buy now before we are all priced out again forever I guess?
Let's say you do "overpay" for a house. As long as you can afford your payment, you have a place to call your own, with all the freedoms. No apartment or HOA regualtions holding you back. Total freedom.
even if, after 30 years, the value never recovered but you still afforded the payment and paid it off -- now you have no mortgage. You can retire more comfortably, and the place is yours. So no matter what, it's still a wise "investment" if you call it that. Maybe not a monetary investment, but a lifestyle and piece of mind investment
Let's say you do "overpay" for a house. As long as you can afford your payment, you have a place to call your own, with all the freedoms. No apartment or HOA regualtions holding you back. Total freedom.
even if, after 30 years, the value never recovered but you still afforded the payment and paid it off -- now you have no mortgage. You can retire more comfortably, and the place is yours. So no matter what, it's still a wise "investment" if you call it that. Maybe not a monetary investment, but a lifestyle and piece of mind investment
The "if you can afford" part is still the question. I am looking for couple of places and I have two choices: Buy a "starter home" which wasn't updated for 30+ years and lock in a montly mortgage equal to 40% more than the rent I am paying in a new development or just wait on the sidelines with cash in my bank account accumulating for rainy days.
Let's say you do "overpay" for a house. As long as you can afford your payment, you have a place to call your own, with all the freedoms. No apartment or HOA regualtions holding you back. Total freedom.
even if, after 30 years, the value never recovered but you still afforded the payment and paid it off -- now you have no mortgage. You can retire more comfortably, and the place is yours. So no matter what, it's still a wise "investment" if you call it that. Maybe not a monetary investment, but a lifestyle and piece of mind investment
I totally get that there is a value added to OWN a home over RENTING a home or apartment. I don't feel the need to break down the pros/cons of each but we all know them. Some people value certain aspect over others so your list will probably be different than my list. We all get that. I hope.
You clearly value ownership for the freedom it gives you and your willing to pay for that. Good for you. When did you buy your house may I ask?
Cause in a NORMAL market I would agree 100% with you. I would prefer to own a home, build equity over time (bonus if it appreciates), and alter it to my desires. I have owned several homes and will own another sooner than later.
But in TODAYS market of extremely overpriced property it is not the smartest thing to jump into for me. Yes I will buy a house (hopefully this summer) but I will NOT pay 2006 type prices for it. I am renting a house and though it is not the most IDEAL situation it is private and is fine for me short term. It is not like I am living in some crack den waiting to buy a house.
So I sit and wait for the market to stop its free fall. I watch houses in my area sit on the market overpriced. I wait. I also save because the rent vs buying costs are MUCH lower for me right now which allows me to spend on fun things or save. So right now I am in a win win.
I see the data and realize things are going down still and will probably continue to do so for awhile. And I am not trying to buy at the VERY bottom. (would be nice but not my goal)
But you act like people shoudl throw caution in the wind and buy that freedom that comes with a house which is super cheap compared to other countries. That is what got us in the mess in the first place and people waiting for things to be NORMAL is a good thing. People waiting to buy only what they can afford is a GOOD thing. People making sure they have emergency funds and savings is a GOOD thing.
I get you are trying to be the 'other side' poster. You read Unemployment is at 11% and you respond but 89% of people are still working. Your response there doesnt add anything. (unless you aiming it at the "better get your guns the gov't is going to collapse" folk but I haven't noticed any on here) 11% is VERY high. Which will cause other things to lose vaue like real estate.
Not sure where I was going with this. I guess it is very narrow minded to only look at things with such a filter which you seem to have. I would say the same for the doom and gloomers or take things to an extreme. But being a bear right now in this market? HARDLY being extreme and probably down right SMART!
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