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Old 04-23-2009, 08:13 AM
 
1,552 posts, read 4,357,851 times
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"Jeffrey G. Otteau, an economist with the Otteau Valuation Group, said New Jersey has a year's worth of unsold housing inventory and prices typically fall whenever there is more than five months' worth of inventory.

'We are not in a recovery,' said Otteau, who delivered the association's economic outlook. 'Home prices will continue to decline.'

...

Another speaker, Rutgers University economist Joseph Seneca, said the state will see a 'new normal' in which consumers will spend less and save more, and fewer people will own homes. Fewer people will work in the finance industry, and they'll make less, Seneca said.

...

Otteau said the New Jersey housing slowdown is being aggravated by the number of people leaving the state, which has the nation's highest tax burden. He said New Jersey ranks third among U.S. states in population loss, and its housing market is unlikely to recover until the end of this year at the earliest."

NorthJersey.com: N.J. builders feel the pain (http://www.northjersey.com/business/NJ_builders_feel_the_pain.html - broken link)
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Old 04-23-2009, 08:15 AM
 
511 posts, read 1,655,301 times
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So what? Do you think the Obama stimulus will help? I don't. If anything, it will raise inflation. Time to buy some more gold.
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Old 04-23-2009, 08:19 AM
 
268 posts, read 721,675 times
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The best quote of that article...

"Otteau estimated that housing prices have declined 36 percent from their peak and New Jersey prices have fallen 24 percent."
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Old 04-23-2009, 08:32 AM
 
1,552 posts, read 4,357,851 times
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I think the Obama stimulus will "help" in the sense of slowing the inevitable decline in home values, but it will do nothing to change the end result. Through a combination of stagflation and falling nominal prices, home values will continue to sink until they are back in line with the historic ratio to household income. The money has already been burned, but it's a shame we've put our nation so much in debt for no real benefit other than a temporary hit of opium for the masses.

NJ specifically has more serious local issues. Utterly overtaxed citizens, wasteful state and local government, infamous corruption, and a brain drain of our best and brightest leaving the state for better opportunities elsewhere.
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Old 04-23-2009, 08:59 AM
 
Location: Bergen co.
563 posts, read 1,208,677 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by metaljaybird View Post
So what? Do you think the Obama stimulus will help? I don't. If anything, it will raise inflation. Time to buy some more gold.
Why has the price of gold not gone up, as a lot of people have been stocking up on precious metals? Demand is higher than supply, but the price has been flat?
Any ideas?
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Old 04-23-2009, 09:17 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
3,779 posts, read 4,176,029 times
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there's an old saying: if you go to a surgeon, he's going to say you need surgery.

Otteau is an imbecile/hack. He runs a real estate consulting and appraisal firm, so he will naturally pander to whatever is the lowest common denominator at the time.

The sentiment du jour is fear, so by playing to that emotion, he will appear as a sage, and more people will hire him to lecture in front of rooms filled with real estate agents who's combined I.Q. = 90
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Old 04-23-2009, 09:23 AM
 
Location: NJ
386 posts, read 787,545 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 86Sebring View Post
Why has the price of gold not gone up, as a lot of people have been stocking up on precious metals? Demand is higher than supply, but the price has been flat?
Any ideas?
I disagree with your assertion that D>S for gold right now. Gold, like real estate, is a poor long term investment. While real estate depends on credit bubbles to soar, gold relies on inflation and/or fear.

We are still in a deflationary death spiral. If it gets bad enough, fear will drive gold up. It it doesn't look like we are approaching the end of the world, the inflationary whipsaw down the road will drive the price up. The time isn't right for gold, just yet.
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Old 04-23-2009, 12:28 PM
 
Location: Bergen co.
563 posts, read 1,208,677 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmonger View Post
I disagree with your assertion that D>S for gold right now. Gold, like real estate, is a poor long term investment. While real estate depends on credit bubbles to soar, gold relies on inflation and/or fear.

We are still in a deflationary death spiral. If it gets bad enough, fear will drive gold up. It it doesn't look like we are approaching the end of the world, the inflationary whipsaw down the road will drive the price up. The time isn't right for gold, just yet.
yes, you are right. I did some research and found articles stating what you said.
this is by Ron Paul: "Inflation, as exposed by high gold prices, transfers wealth from the middle class to the rich, as real wages decline while the salaries of CEOs, movie stars, and athletes skyrocket – along with the profits of the military industrial complex, the oil industry, and other special interests
]A sharply rising gold price is a vote of “no confidence” in Congress’ ability to control the budget, the Fed’s ability to control the money supply, and the administration’s ability to bring stability to the Middle East
Ultimately, the gold price is a measurement of trust in the currency and the politicians who run the country. It’s been that way for a long time, and is not about to change"
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Old 04-23-2009, 01:02 PM
 
744 posts, read 1,311,900 times
Reputation: 182
Quote:
Originally Posted by xmonger View Post
I disagree with your assertion that D>S for gold right now. Gold, like real estate, is a poor long term investment. While real estate depends on credit bubbles to soar, gold relies on inflation and/or fear.

We are still in a deflationary death spiral. If it gets bad enough, fear will drive gold up. It it doesn't look like we are approaching the end of the world, the inflationary whipsaw down the road will drive the price up. The time isn't right for gold, just yet.
Gold is not an investment, is has no yield in fact it costs money to store.

Gold is a hedge against inflation, and a way to retain purchasing power when a fiat currency plummets due to overprinting.

You don't make money with gold, your just trying not to lose money. If you buy month supply of food worth of gold now you would expect that if you sold it in 5 years time whatever it was worth would buy a month's worth of food then (unless there's a break through in food production in between or famine at the time). Trying to get rich in gold is just speculation (which is all fine a good, nothing wrong with that when it's your own money).
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Old 04-23-2009, 03:13 PM
 
Location: NJ
31,776 posts, read 36,128,454 times
Reputation: 24481
im looking into TIPS specifically ishares etf symbol TIP.

i dont see any reason for the economy to improve for a while. i think that the "stimulus" and other obama measures are nothing but 100% corruption so obama can pay off friends. so no, there is no way they will help.
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