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Old 05-13-2009, 12:08 PM
 
Location: NJ
31,771 posts, read 40,749,013 times
Reputation: 24590

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Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
Wharton is a highly respected business school, and the conclusion I draw from this presentation is that the hysteria about a "national housing crisis" has done irreparable damage to residential markets in the 46 states that NEVER had a "crisis" at all.

There is no national housing market... period

Media hype about a national "meltdown" in housing prices became something of a self-fulfilling prophecy in states that previously had no significant deterioration in home values.
the problem was that mexicans with no income were competing for 500k homes with people who make 100k a year. property values are going to continue to tank.
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Old 05-13-2009, 12:09 PM
 
1,340 posts, read 3,700,262 times
Reputation: 451
No offense MoorestownResident and JG183 but you two are the TROLLS in respect to this boards. (There are some bear trolls as well) But refusing to explain your rationale then calling someone asking you to do so a troll is sad.
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Old 05-13-2009, 12:12 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,280,072 times
Reputation: 606
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoorestownResident View Post
I am arguing that Philly metro is fairly valued, I am not arguing northern NJ is fairly valued as of right now. His focus is Philly, not spots closer to NYC.
I see. I am less familiar with Philly metro, but my understanding is that most of the country is close to historical norms, and should stabilize in 2009.

N.NJ and NY are still both somewhat inflated and I expect them to keep falling for a while.
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Old 05-13-2009, 12:15 PM
 
1,983 posts, read 7,523,040 times
Reputation: 418
Quote:
Originally Posted by NatasNJ View Post
No offense MoorestownResident and JG183 but you two are the TROLLS in respect to this boards. (There are some bear trolls as well) But refusing to explain your rationale then calling someone asking you to do so a troll is sad.
I lead people to water they refuse to drink, therefore, they get no more of my time. Not only that, I lead them to water and they question whether it is really water at all. I have no time for idiots. And it is also not fair to suggest I am a bull. I am a smart analyst that takes advantage of other people's stupidity.
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Old 05-13-2009, 12:19 PM
 
79 posts, read 127,729 times
Reputation: 39
Yet you continue to post.

If you are as correct as you believe, you are capable of explaining why the points I made initially are "irrelevant". I'll repost them to save you the trouble of looking at the first page, since your time is so valuable:
Quote:
Slide 20 shows that affordability is still well above historical levels (higher being less affordable)
Slide 21 shows that rent-income ratios are still well above historical levels
Slide 22 indicates a slight decrease is necessary to reach the 1980-present trendline
Slide 35 shows an increase in foreclosures (which will not hit the market for months)
I should mention that slide 22's trendline is skewed by the bubble itself, making it a somewhat optimistic estimate.

If you are so confident and correct, then you should have tight, logical responses to each of these points, that will take you all of five minutes or less to type up. I'm genuinely interested in hearing your logic and analysis. I rarely see an actual argument made when it comes to something as emotionally touchy as home values, so I'm very interested in hearing what you have to say; you claim to be absolutely correct and are clearly quite confident, so your take ought to be worth listening to.
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Old 05-13-2009, 12:48 PM
 
1,340 posts, read 3,700,262 times
Reputation: 451
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoorestownResident View Post
I lead people to water they refuse to drink, therefore, they get no more of my time. Not only that, I lead them to water and they question whether it is really water at all. I have no time for idiots. And it is also not fair to suggest I am a bull. I am a smart analyst that takes advantage of other people's stupidity.
So they are idiots because they ask you to explain your rationale?
You claim the data is something (water) and when someone asks if it is flawed (poisioned or salt water) you call them idiots.

I think from your posting history that you are bullish when it comes to the housing market in the SJ area. (Assuming there is value at recent prices) YET prices continue to fall even in SJ. Are they dramatic like Las Vegas? Nope. But questioning if they are inflated in general and your quick dismissal of that is bullish. Especially as prices continue to edge downwards.
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Old 05-13-2009, 01:03 PM
 
1,983 posts, read 7,523,040 times
Reputation: 418
If there was a reason to be bearish about SJ, I would be. I am not because there is no reason to be. Prices are soft but relatively stable. Foreclosure activity is low, inventories are not excessively high, homes are still selling. The local economy looks better than reported. Go out to the restuarants and see how many people are there. Tons. People are still moving to the area. Philly/SJ was very undervalued for many years. My rationale is well documented by my posting history. My own home has appreciated in value since 2007 as I posted many times in various discussions.

Ironically, I am the only person in the non-bear camp that posting timely reserarch supporting my rationales. The fact that some trolls who disagree and who probably don't even live in the Philly area is not my concern. I am not out to feed the trolls.
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Old 05-13-2009, 01:14 PM
 
79 posts, read 127,729 times
Reputation: 39
Still waiting on some logic, reason or other argument. Again, if your confidence is real and based in something real, you should have no trouble explaining why affordability indexes, rent-price ratios and an uptick in foreclosure activity are "irrelevant".
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Old 05-13-2009, 01:30 PM
 
1,340 posts, read 3,700,262 times
Reputation: 451
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoorestownResident View Post
If there was a reason to be bearish about SJ, I would be. I am not because there is no reason to be. Prices are soft but relatively stable. Foreclosure activity is low, inventories are not excessively high, homes are still selling. The local economy looks better than reported. Go out to the restuarants and see how many people are there. Tons. People are still moving to the area. Philly/SJ was very undervalued for many years. My rationale is well documented by my posting history. My own home has appreciated in value since 2007 as I posted many times in various discussions.

Ironically, I am the only person in the non-bear camp that posting timely reserarch supporting my rationales. The fact that some trolls who disagree and who probably don't even live in the Philly area is not my concern. I am not out to feed the trolls.
You are posting other peoples research and saying "look I am right" and when asked to explain yourself you deflect and call them trolls.

I agree this area is on fairly solid ground (SJ area) overall but it is still due for a correction. I am not one thinking/claiming 50% off peak. But 20-30% is probably realistic and being already off peak by 15% I think another 5-10% is realistic over the next year or two.

You can CLAIM you house has appreciated but that is all smoke and mirrors until you sell it at that new assumed value. You also put an addition on I recall so that skews your listing a little.

And being in a NJ forum you have to realize North Jersey posters are also in here so that comes with the terriority.
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Old 05-13-2009, 01:37 PM
 
50 posts, read 176,490 times
Reputation: 36
Interesting to see home prices are still dropping.....expect a nice price decrease within the next 2 months when buyers still are not buying and the fall season is creeping up.

www.njrereport.com
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