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Old 05-13-2009, 04:08 PM
 
231 posts, read 587,790 times
Reputation: 50

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Quote:
Originally Posted by MoorestownResident View Post
I am no longer perpetuating R/E discussion. I post the facts from The Wharton School I am asked to explain them. I'm a wacko because a prof at PENN agrees with me. I've learned never get involved in circular discussions with the less-learned.
I have to agree with pfwnj and natashnj here. Moorestown resident, you have stated a conclusion presented in this presentation and there is no problem with that. But pfwnj correctly (IMO) challenges that conclusion. The "over-valued"/"under-valued" methodology, as described in the presentation is as follows:

Quote:
This chart plots the degree to which Philadelphia's housing stock is considered over-or under-valued, over time from 1985-2009. The index is computed by comparing actual house price levels to local densities, income levels and interest rates to determine the degree to which a market is over-or under-valued. Source: IHS Global Insight, "House Prices in America", Apr. 2009.
Now I think that we all know that population densities, income levels and interest rates contribute to regional price trends, but they are by no means the only contributing factors. Other intangibles such as desirability have made cities such as San Franciso and to a lesser extent NY rise to the point where median home prices go for 8-10x median incomes in recent years. Even before the recent bubble and throughout recent decades, these cities have always demanded a premium above and beyond what the local income norms would imply. NYC salaries pay more than Philly salaries but not enough to cover the added cost of housing. So the conclusion that the Philly market is under-valued based on the stated criteria assumes that all markets should eventually return to a stasis whereby every region's home prices are dictated strictly by these criteria. This is a scenario that is unlikely to ever come to pass.

Now, I'll tell you what this data DOES show: affordability. Relating income to housing costs is absolutely relevant at determining affortability. No bones about it, Philly is a more affordable to live in than NYC and North Jersey. I don't think you were talking about affordability though.

On trolls: People who post on this board deserve equal respect whether they are brand new or have been here for years. I don't think this poster has done anything to warrant being branded a troll. The troll argument is so tired.
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Old 05-13-2009, 04:09 PM
 
1,340 posts, read 3,700,262 times
Reputation: 451
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
so anyone who disagrees with you super-bears is a "whackado"

...of course






PS: M-R has been here far longer than me
No. You can disagree with super-bears. Ignoring reality while doing so and refusing to defend WHY you think what you do does.

Declaring Nov 2008 as the bottom of NJ real estate correction has been proven WRONG! But to continue to say it doesn't all of a sudden make it right. That makes you whackado.
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Old 05-13-2009, 06:45 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
4,184 posts, read 5,072,542 times
Reputation: 4233
ok "goonsquad", are you really Lusitan or xmonger ?
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Old 05-13-2009, 07:42 PM
 
231 posts, read 587,790 times
Reputation: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
ok "goonsquad", are you really Lusitan or xmonger ?
No
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Old 05-13-2009, 07:48 PM
 
Location: Villanova Pa.
4,927 posts, read 14,227,761 times
Reputation: 2715
Quote:
Originally Posted by pfwnj View Post
So, in other words, you refuse to justify your claims or provide any logic or evidence, preferring instead to just sit there and claim you are right, end of story, no discussion possible.

Tell me, why do you bother talking to anyone?
Take whatever Moorestownrodent says with a grain of salt.

I see he's all charged up about the Philly metro regarding this particular subject . Yet he'll go over to the Philly board and trash the city and the 4 wealthy Pa suburban counties which keeps the Philly area relevant.He rants on and on about Moorestown and Burlington County eventhough Moorestown(no offense ) would be a second tier city in North Jersey and the 4 Pa suburbs of Philly.

I actually feel sorry for you guys. He's kind of laughed off as an annoying pest on the Philly board but I assume you guys get a full dose of his dog and pony act. Unbelievable.
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Old 05-13-2009, 07:53 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,280,072 times
Reputation: 606
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
ok "goonsquad", are you really Lusitan or xmonger ?
I thought you were done with RE threads
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Old 05-13-2009, 07:55 PM
 
1,552 posts, read 4,637,277 times
Reputation: 509
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
ok "goonsquad", are you really Lusitan or xmonger ?
LOL ... what, you think everyone who makes a coherent argument must be one of the same two people?

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Old 05-15-2009, 09:04 PM
 
191 posts, read 591,575 times
Reputation: 82
I can't follow all the statistical arguments, but experientially speaking, I can't understand why people still maintain that Nov 2008 was the bottom. I've been house hunting for several months and have been seeing many houses in northern/eastern Bergen County reduce their asking price. At least in the areas I've been looking, you can definitely get more house for your money than 6 months ago.
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Old 05-18-2009, 07:09 PM
 
231 posts, read 587,790 times
Reputation: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by sweetpotato View Post
I can't follow all the statistical arguments, but experientially speaking, I can't understand why people still maintain that Nov 2008 was the bottom. I've been house hunting for several months and have been seeing many houses in northern/eastern Bergen County reduce their asking price. At least in the areas I've been looking, you can definitely get more house for your money than 6 months ago.
It's easy to understand. Those people are realtors.
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Old 05-18-2009, 08:08 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
4,184 posts, read 5,072,542 times
Reputation: 4233
Quote:
Originally Posted by sweetpotato View Post
I've been house hunting for several months and have been seeing many houses in northern/eastern Bergen County reduce their asking price.
and for every example you can provide, I can show an equal # of homes that didn't drop their price.


Quote:
Originally Posted by sweetpotato View Post
At least in the areas I've been looking, you can definitely get more house for your money than 6 months ago.
then how come you haven't bought something ?

I think it's because you're waiting for a "steal", but serious home buyers keep beating you to the punch.
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