Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > New Jersey
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 05-18-2009, 08:09 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
4,184 posts, read 5,070,334 times
Reputation: 4233

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by goonsquad View Post
It's easy to understand. Those people are realtors.
of course they are.




...and there are monsters under my bed


Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-18-2009, 08:32 PM
 
231 posts, read 587,686 times
Reputation: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
of course they are.




...and there are monsters under my bed



Trivialize my comments if you wish. People looking for information on this and other sites should know that majority of analysts are calling for continued price declines across the country and in the NY/NJ region as evidenced by a number of technical and sentimental indicators (inventory, y-o-y price declines, stagnant wages, unemployment, difficult access to credit, etc.).

That is, the analysts which don't have a vested interest in keeping prices and sales high.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-19-2009, 06:15 AM
 
231 posts, read 587,686 times
Reputation: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
and for every example you can provide, I can show an equal # of homes that didn't drop their price.
So you're saying that 50% of houses have not dropped their prices? So I guess that means 50% HAVE dropped their prices. I'd actually say it's higher than that. NYC sale prices have dropped 10% yoy since a year ago and will continue to drop for the next several months.


Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
then how come you haven't bought something ?

I think it's because you're waiting for a "steal", but serious home buyers keep beating you to the punch.
Why would sweetpotato buy something that he/she knew would be worth less next year. With a 20% downpayment, it's not all that improbable he/she may have 0 equity after a year.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-19-2009, 06:24 AM
 
79 posts, read 127,699 times
Reputation: 39
Quote:
I can't follow all the statistical arguments, but experientially speaking, I can't understand why people still maintain that Nov 2008 was the bottom. I've been house hunting for several months and have been seeing many houses in northern/eastern Bergen County reduce their asking price. At least in the areas I've been looking, you can definitely get more house for your money than 6 months ago.
Your experience is almost certainly backed by the statistics. I can post the chart for Bergen when I get home, but it if looks like any of the other counties I've looked at in North NJ, prices are on the downswing and not showing any signs of a bottom.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-19-2009, 07:02 AM
 
744 posts, read 1,407,130 times
Reputation: 182
Quote:
Originally Posted by goonsquad View Post
Why would sweetpotato buy something that he/she knew would be worth less next year. With a 20% downpayment, it's not all that improbable he/she may have 0 equity after a year.
I doubt that. And I'm bearish on housing...

Obama's ridiculous money printing binge seems to have "worked". So now we get a good old jobless recovery and all the money pours into yet another bubble. Won't be housing, unlikely to be the stock market again, commodities didn't get the full run last time so maybe there. Oh and the currency collapses, but that's a bit later.

That inflation is going to put a nominal bottom on housing higher than the historic data would indicate. Of course in real terms they'll be down. But a 20% drop in nominal price in a year seems very unlikely unless the buyer overpaid to start with.

The time to load up with debt is near

Of course, hopefully I'm wrong and Obama was right and we can print our way to prosperity.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-19-2009, 07:08 AM
 
587 posts, read 2,179,613 times
Reputation: 225
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post

then how come you haven't bought something ?

I think it's because you're waiting for a "steal", but serious home buyers keep beating you to the punch.
They submitted an offer but got out bided.

This is what is happening today, the desirable towns continue to become desirable while the undesirable towns become even more undesirable. Given the fact that some urban regions are well below historical norms no one wants to buy there. Sure housing is falling but its falling at a faster rate in the urban areas and borderline questionable towns. Everyone is waiting for that same house in that affluent community.
This is a case of the poor getting poorer.....
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-19-2009, 07:18 AM
 
231 posts, read 587,686 times
Reputation: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by sholden View Post
I doubt that. And I'm bearish on housing...

Obama's ridiculous money printing binge seems to have "worked". So now we get a good old jobless recovery and all the money pours into yet another bubble. Won't be housing, unlikely to be the stock market again, commodities didn't get the full run last time so maybe there. Oh and the currency collapses, but that's a bit later.

That inflation is going to put a nominal bottom on housing higher than the historic data would indicate. Of course in real terms they'll be down. But a 20% drop in nominal price in a year seems very unlikely unless the buyer overpaid to start with.

The time to load up with debt is near

Of course, hopefully I'm wrong and Obama was right and we can print our way to prosperity.
I agree with almost everything you say here. It's just a matter of whether the momentum of the downswing in real estate will still be enough to overshoot the historical trend. For the record, I don't necessarily think that NJ prices will drop another 20% nominally, and that's only because of all the measures currently being taken to create the floor which you correctly point out. There are those who do though: Fitch: California, Arizona, Florida Home Price Declines in Line with U.S. RMBS Forecast.

Where I don't agree:
jobless recovery. I don't see this happening anytime soon, unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong.
"unless the buyer overpaid to start with". This would be anybody who bought in the past 5 or so years.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-19-2009, 07:37 AM
 
191 posts, read 591,498 times
Reputation: 82
jg183, i haven't bought a house yet because i'm on no timeline to buy until my oldest starts public school over a year from now. i would probably bid more aggressively if it weren't for the fact that i keep seeing price reductions around me every few weeks. it just doesn't seem like we've hit bottom yet, at least not in NE bergen county, given that prices don't seem to have plateaued yet. (again, this is experientially and not statistically speaking, so completely imho.) and i just don't want to make a huge purchase that will start by likely decreasing in value the next year. so you're right, i am sort of waiting for more of a "steal", or at least for prices to come down a little more, and i'm in a position where i can wait for that to happen.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-19-2009, 08:58 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,279,054 times
Reputation: 606
Quote:
Originally Posted by sweetpotato View Post
jg183, i haven't bought a house yet because i'm on no timeline to buy until my oldest starts public school over a year from now. i would probably bid more aggressively if it weren't for the fact that i keep seeing price reductions around me every few weeks. it just doesn't seem like we've hit bottom yet, at least not in NE bergen county, given that prices don't seem to have plateaued yet. (again, this is experientially and not statistically speaking, so completely imho.) and i just don't want to make a huge purchase that will start by likely decreasing in value the next year. so you're right, i am sort of waiting for more of a "steal", or at least for prices to come down a little more, and i'm in a position where i can wait for that to happen.
The last thing one should be worried about now is a shortage of supply.

(*) In NY metro, there have been 4 months of consecutive record year on year declines (Case-Shiller)

(*) The region that includes Bergen County still needs to fall to come back to historical norms of affordability (see my HOI numbers thread)

(*) Sales are slow not because of small inventory, but because the market is expecting prices to fall.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-19-2009, 09:04 AM
 
744 posts, read 1,407,130 times
Reputation: 182
Quote:
Originally Posted by goonsquad View Post
I agree with almost everything you say here. It's just a matter of whether the momentum of the downswing in real estate will still be enough to overshoot the historical trend. For the record, I don't necessarily think that NJ prices will drop another 20% nominally, and that's only because of all the measures currently being taken to create the floor which you correctly point out. There are those who do though: Fitch: California, Arizona, Florida Home Price Declines in Line with U.S. RMBS Forecast.

Where I don't agree:
jobless recovery. I don't see this happening anytime soon, unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong.
"unless the buyer overpaid to start with". This would be anybody who bought in the past 5 or so years.
We'll see, injecting money worked the last few times. And the magnitude this time is amazing. But maybe it all just goes into inflation with no economic benefit at all...

When I said overpaid I meant compared with the market prices right now. A further 20% drop from now is called for by historic prices, I just expect the inflation from printing money to stop it there.

I even looked at an open house on Saturday. No way I'd buy it though.

3 bed/2 bath, SFH in the same development I'm renting in, though I'm renting a 2 bed/1bath condo in a 12 condo building. It's obviously much bigger, but has no yard - the building/patio extends essentially to the fences and driveway. They're asking $520k. Price isn't the underlying issue, the taxes+HOA fee is 80% of the rent I currently pay is the main thing. It's also asking 12% more than the current owner paid in early 2007...

It's not *that* much better than my crappy rental. It's bigger, but the view isn't as good (the advantage of being above the ground floor) and the common grass area behind my place is *much* better than the area that house is in.

You certainly couldn't rent it out profitably at that price.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:




Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > New Jersey
Similar Threads
View detailed profiles of:

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top