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I just want people to realize that the so called "bears" on here are still 100% right on. Home sales may increase but prices CONTINUE to fall. "Bears" have been saying all along that prices for homes need to correct. So for each new sale becomes a new ceiling for the next sale. House A sells this month for $100k, House B (same type house) sells next month for $100k - 1%. Repeat....
So we can get into a GOOD NEWS VS BAD NEWS debate but really the "Bears" platform is PRICES NEED TO CORRECT and that is happening. (At least that has been my only point really from day 1 on here)
You guys are talking about 2 different sets of numbers. Firstly, the chart Lusitan is showing is for northern new jersey, whose real estate cliff we all know lagged the national cliff. Also his numbers are for closed sales. I haven't seen the pending sales for NJ for 2009 plotted against those for 2008 for this month's data. The NAR report shows that nationally, pending sales for April are 3.2% above April 2008. I would be VERY surprised if the same were true for NNJ.
What's really important are not m-o-m sales, which we all know are seasonal, but y-o-y sales. Again, the NAR data show that nationally, pending sales are up y-o-y, which would indicate the beginning of a bottom forming...nationally. Next step in formation of that bottom would be the decrease of inventory followed by the stopping of sale price decreases.
As it stands now, sale prices, especially in NY metro, continue to decrease on a y-o-y basis. For NY metro, the y-o-y price decrease for March was almost 3%.
You guys are talking about 2 different sets of numbers. Firstly, the chart Lusitan is showing is for northern new jersey, whose real estate cliff we all know lagged the national cliff. Also his numbers are for closed sales. I haven't seen the pending sales for NJ for 2009 plotted against those for 2008 for this month's data. The NAR report shows that nationally, pending sales for April are 3.2% above April 2008. I would be VERY surprised if the same were true for NNJ.
What's really important are not m-o-m sales, which we all know are seasonal, but y-o-y sales. Again, the NAR data show that nationally, pending sales are up y-o-y, which would indicate the beginning of a bottom forming...nationally. Next step in formation of that bottom would be the decrease of inventory followed by the stopping of sale price decreases.
As it stands now, sale prices, especially in NY metro, continue to decrease on a y-o-y basis. For NY metro, the y-o-y price decrease for March was almost 3%.
Edit to this. The m-o-m decrease was close to 3%. The yoy was closer to 12...top of my head. Anyone w/ the actual numbers from the case schiller data can feel free to correct.
Edit to this. The m-o-m decrease was close to 3%. The yoy was closer to 12...top of my head. Anyone w/ the actual numbers from the case schiller data can feel free to correct.
yes, you pretty much got this right. m.o.m was about 2.5% for NY metro, fourth consecutive record. y.o.y it's just under 12.
yes, the biggest monthly jump in nearly 8 years...
Not only that but sales are up 33% in the northeast suggesting that the volume going on out there is more than foreclosure activity.
"Pending home sales rose about 33% in the Northeast, and about 10% in the Midwest. Pending home sales were flat in the South and rose 2% in the West.
"Given that most of the gains in sales were in the more stable Northeast and Midwest markets, it appears that foreclosed properties were less of a factor given that most of the foreclosures have been occurring in the West and the South," wrote Millan Mulrainem, an economist for TD Securities."
Yipppppeee all is well. Get out and buy buy buy buy buy!! Rates who cares? Prices who cares??? Just buy buy buy! Forget the price declines! Forget the job loss! Forget the foreclosures! Just buy because we all know houses will jump 20% a year for the next 100 years!!!
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