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Old 06-30-2009, 09:25 AM
 
231 posts, read 551,280 times
Reputation: 50

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Moorestown, I must admit I prefer your brand of argument to that of JG. At least you don't entirely throw away the data. Your conclusions are flawed though. Firstly, I'll agree with Elford's point about the seasonality/volatility of monthly price changes. To better illustrate this volatility, here are the mom price changes for the past year.

May 2008 -0.3%
June 2008 0.2%
July 2008 -0.7%
August 2008 -0.2%
September 2008 -0.6%
October 2008 -1.0%
November 2008 -1.6%
December 2008 -1.8%
January 2009 -1.2%
February 2009 -1.7%
March 2009 -2.7%
April 2009 -1.7%

Notice the large fluctations in monthly prices. Also note the overall trend. We're now solidly in the 1.x% decline category on a monthly basis. One month of gigantic increase followed by a return to the previous level doesn't indicate to me that a peak in rate of decline has been reached. Of course, it's possible that ~1.7% monthly rate of decline will be the established peak and that 2.7% will have just been an outlier. Obviously, it's too soon to say. But as long as we have negative yoy and mom price changes, this means prices are still falling.

Last edited by goonsquad; 06-30-2009 at 09:26 AM.. Reason: Fixed Number Formatting
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Old 06-30-2009, 09:25 AM
 
1,983 posts, read 7,098,686 times
Reputation: 412
I've proven my points. Have a good time debating your nonsense.
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Old 06-30-2009, 09:32 AM
 
605 posts, read 934,054 times
Reputation: 351
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
Case-Shiller tracks repeat sales on a specific group of homes in each city.

it is a "1-size-fits-all" analysis that doesn't really fit everybody.

...there is no middle ground with you super-bears, is there ?

C/S makes thier money on market fluctations -- if things stay flat, they can't skim the market, so they tell you how bad things are to lowball the markets.

then later they raise thier expectations to push the markets up. then you're happy again and the C/S index is sacred. it's the old used-car-salesman spiel.

the problem with one-size-fits-all answers, though, is that they often don't. when it comes to the decision of when to buy a home, there is typically no single "right" answer. not everyone is equally vulnerable. someone with a steady job, high FICO scores, and who plans on staying in the house for at least 7 years needn't worry as much about what prices are going to do...
uh huh, and the index you like to site is flawless, right?
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Old 06-30-2009, 09:39 AM
 
Location: Ridgewood NJ
592 posts, read 2,081,367 times
Reputation: 315
here we go again!

/popcorn
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Old 06-30-2009, 09:42 AM
 
231 posts, read 551,280 times
Reputation: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoorestownResident View Post
Wow, you guys are shooting blanks.

Here's the press release, take a big note of the first chart and the headline, it clearly shows a bottom formation being reached in their 10 and 20 city average with a more modest month to month decline in recent months. In other words, the pace of decline is no longer 'plummeting' it is modestly declining.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf...ase_063055.pdf

The NYC monthly decline was -1.7%, down from -2.6%.

"The pace of decline in residential real estate slowed in April", says David M. Blitzer Chairman of the Index Committee, Standard & Poors.

Leave the analysis to the pros, if you want to doom and gloom, that's fine, but don't expect to pull a fast one over on the pros.
Where were you last month when the the MOM data jumped from 1.7% to 2.6%? Did you see me and others on this board claiming that this jump equated to a 36% yearly decline? 36% would be the YOY decline if 2.6% monthly declines continued for a year. Did you and JG bow to your knees and exclaim that housing prices are headed to zero?!

No, I wouldn't say that. Nobody is stupid enough to think that the volatile MOM numbers can be used as an accurate predictor. Looking at the YOY numbers though, the price curve is smoother. Prices really did drop >12% since last year. For NY, the 12% YOY drop represents the highest to date.

For the 10 and 20 year indexes rate of decline, I'm not sure if you're willfully trying to deceive others or if you don't understand the numbers yourself. I actually think that you do understand them. What you correctly pointed out is that YOY rates of decline for the big indexes are off their highest rates. So instead of prices declining 20% per year, they're now declining 18% per year. This is still a GIGANTIC rate of decline and much bigger in fact than our NY Metro region has seen.

So I do acknowledge that the rate of decline has subsided for the big indexes. Prices are still falling though at an extremely rapid rate.
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Old 06-30-2009, 10:19 AM
 
2,914 posts, read 3,606,393 times
Reputation: 3164
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoorestownResident View Post
I've proven my points. Have a good time debating your nonsense.

You have proven that you have an agenda that can't be backed up with real information. Please just sit back and watch. Maybe you will learn something.
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Old 06-30-2009, 11:53 AM
 
268 posts, read 723,756 times
Reputation: 72
I'm going to go out on a limb and agree with Moorsetownresident and say it appears home price declines are moderating. According to Otteau NJ is now down to 9.5 months of inventory down from 16.7 months last year. I also recently put an offer in on a house that was on the market for 7 days. It received 4 bids, 2 of them for full price. Needless to say my bid was not the winning one. The house was definetely overpriced.I do hope I'm wrong and this is only a seasonal bump as some have suggested. We could really use some additional declines to bring this area into equilibrium with income.
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Old 06-30-2009, 12:00 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
3,864 posts, read 4,255,223 times
Reputation: 3750
for those who have such strong convictions on what home prices are going to do, here's your chance to put your money where your mouth is :

MarketWatch.com Story
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Old 06-30-2009, 12:01 PM
 
605 posts, read 934,054 times
Reputation: 351
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghuber View Post
I'm going to go out on a limb and agree with Moorsetownresident and say it appears home price declines are moderating. According to Otteau NJ is now down to 9.5 months of inventory down from 16.7 months last year. I also recently put an offer in on a house that was on the market for 7 days. It received 4 bids, 2 of them for full price. Needless to say my bid was not the winning one. The house was definetely overpriced.I do hope I'm wrong and this is only a seasonal bump as some have suggested. We could really use some additional declines to bring this area into equilibrium with income.
Doesn't really mean much. Every single house that has sold in the past 3 years has probably been overpriced. That's why sales numbers have been dismal. Prices aren't at a level to clear the existing market inventory. Just because something is overpriced doesn't mean there are people who won't buy it.
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Old 06-30-2009, 12:03 PM
 
605 posts, read 934,054 times
Reputation: 351
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
for those who have such strong convictions on what home prices are going to do, here's your chance to put your money where your mouth is :

MarketWatch.com Story
That's a bad bet either way. The thing is a 300% leveraged ETF, meaning, it's a short term trading instrument. Anyone who buys and holds the thing on a long term basis on either side of the bet will lose their money to the natural decay of the ETFs value through leverage and management fees.
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