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Old 07-17-2009, 05:13 PM
 
268 posts, read 724,528 times
Reputation: 72

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Looks like we might be in for a harsh winter!

AccuWeather.com - Weather Blogs - Weather News (http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?#extremes - broken link)
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Old 07-17-2009, 05:15 PM
 
3,269 posts, read 9,414,403 times
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Oh please, they say that every year.
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Old 07-17-2009, 05:18 PM
 
268 posts, read 724,528 times
Reputation: 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by UKOK View Post
Oh please, they say that every year.
Maybe the Farmers Almanac, but not Joe Bastardi. He actually has a very good track record.

With the way this summers weather has been, I totally believe we might be in for a tough winter.
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Old 07-18-2009, 01:58 PM
 
Location: Jersey City
6,868 posts, read 17,749,416 times
Reputation: 6443
It wouldn't take much. We haven't had a ton of snow the past few years.
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Old 07-18-2009, 02:35 PM
 
975 posts, read 1,725,322 times
Reputation: 1583
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghuber View Post
Looks like we might be in for a harsh winter!

AccuWeather.com - Weather Blogs - Weather News (http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?#extremes - broken link)

This past winter in NYC was harsh. No, not the amount of snow we received, but the temps were lower then normal. I remember walking through the streets this winter on my to work and freezing my a** off much more then previous winters.
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Old 07-19-2009, 09:26 AM
 
30 posts, read 101,816 times
Reputation: 34
Long range forecasts are barely more accurate than chance. They're based on analogs to past seasons with similar datasets/conditions at a similar point in time prior to the upcoming season, along with the assumption that the upcoming season will behave similarly to the season being compared to from the past. The analogs are rarely that good of a match and even if they are, the "match" is for a limited dataset and there are many variables which aren't even factored in, so the analog method is, at best, a very crude tool of questionable accuracy.
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Old 07-19-2009, 01:49 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
2,653 posts, read 5,562,193 times
Reputation: 2321
I hope not!
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Old 07-19-2009, 03:04 PM
 
Location: New York
11,340 posts, read 18,777,314 times
Reputation: 6165
I don't believe him, first it was supposed to be a hot Summer, then when it didn't start out hot it was supposed to be a cool Summer, but now its starting to warm up and be more Summer like. I don't believe in long-range forecasts now after the ones regarding this Summer. Also I think an El Nino means that a warmer Winter is coming.
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Old 07-20-2009, 07:07 AM
 
Location: Savannah GA/Lk Hopatcong NJ
13,179 posts, read 26,748,178 times
Reputation: 11387
Hmm I was just saying last week we are going to pay for this nice cool low humidity summer by an early cold cold winter
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