Quote:
Originally Posted by WendyEF
What does that mean for us? I don't know what to hope for anymore.
|
At this time, NJ would qualify to receive a fourth extension in benefits if:
(1) the bill that passes sets a minimum requirement of a three-month average unemployment rate at or below the three-month average that NJ has (currently 9.7 percent).
In their most recent discussions and proposals (including HR 3548), federal legislators have reduced the level of the three-month average unemployment rate required for an extension to 8.5 percent. So if the legislation with that 8.5 percent requirement is passed, NJ would qualify for the next extension.
AND
(2) the bill providing an extension is enacted before the September 2009 rate is determined (sometime in October 2009).
Right now, the three-month average for all states includes their June, July, and August rates; after the September numbers are announced, the three-month average will include their July, August, and September rates.
So NJ's eligibility
could change if there is a dramatic drop in the September unemployment rate -- a drop deep enough to pull down the three-month average, below the average rate required in the legislation.
An aside about Unemployment rates:
At first glance, a dramatic drop in a state's unemployment rate might seem next to impossible in this economy.
But remember, the unemployment rates are essentially calculated based on the number of people
actively seeking employment.
And the government has traditionally used the number of people collecting unemployment benefits (people who are supposedly actively seeking employment to get those benefits) to determine the percentage of jobless.
So once a person no longer collects Unemployment, he or she drops off the statistical radar and is not included in the
official number of unemployment.
Given the masses of people collecting -- and eventually exhausting Unemployment benefits -- the traditional formula for determining the unemployment level at national and local levels would no longer be accurate. How can those who are out of work, actively seeking employment, but no longer eligible for benefits not be included???
In fact, economists have speculated that the current
official unemployment rate at the national level could be as much as 5 to 8 percentage points below the
actual rate.
It's a very complicated situation -- at the very least, how can the federal legislators base extensions on unemployment rates that most people acknowledge are not being calculated accurately???
Expect to hear more in the press about this "inaccurate tracking issue" on all federal and state benefits (including Unemployment) as more funding is needed for extensions -- and for health care reform.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
