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When was the "latest" report dated ? My recollection was that this was published some time back -- when the CS index was still dropping, and the markets were still predicting a 20% or so decline.
The outlook has changed substantially over the last few months for a few reasons -- the government have been able to hold the long term bond rates (and hence borrowing rates) down quite low, and the NY metro CS index has reached a plateau (contrast with a streak of record y.o.y. declines at the time that report was released).
Well that's not saying much. I would think one would prefer not to lose that 20% down payment and just be content not to have to bring cash to closing. Plans change, life is unpredictable; you don't want to burn your down payment money just to call yourself an "owner" for a few years.
If it were just about calling yourself an "owner", that would be a perfectly good argument.
If there were an abundance of long term single family rental houses in desirable, stable communities, then the case for buying would be much weaker.
Losing your downpayment is obviously less than desirable, but I need to weigh that risk against the benefits of living in (and in my case, raising my child) in a nice community.
Well I don't know what you classify as an "abundance" of rental options, but I think I have a pretty good idea of the type of towns you're interested in, and there are (in my opinion) a plethora of good rental options in those nice communities. Have you followed rental listings (on Craigslist, which many landlords use, and realtor.com) as closely as you've been following for sale listings?
wow elford now a bull looks like elford is close to making an offer who is next
Actually, made an offer not that long ago for a place in the West Gregory part of West Orange. The offer was rejected without a counter. Seller seems to be chasing the market down ...
1. Is available inventory going up or down in relation to the number of CONTRACTS being signed. For example, if a town has 100 listings, with 10 contracts average per month, then there's 10 months of unsold inventory... if prices/rates drop and homes start selling, it may go to 80 homes and 15 contracts per month, leaving unsold inventory of 5.3 months.
2. CONTRACT SIGNINGS: The number of contracts signed is related to the number of people who feel that prices are right, the economy is at least ok and their job prospects are good enough to actually buy. When these numbers increase (as they have been for the past several months) this is an indicator of an improving market. This has been the case here for he past few months.
3. MULTIPLE OFFERS: Homes that are priced right are selling and selling quickly. As a Realtor, I've seen several multiple-offer situations with homes selling at or over listing price.
4. ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL: Not only does real estate vary from state-to-state, it also varies from town to town. Look at the difference between foreclosure rates in Nevada vs NJ as an example. Our rate is 1/10 of what the foreclosure rates in Nevada. I'm not saying we should have a parade and celebrate, but it could be worse.
Well I don't know what you classify as an "abundance" of rental options, but I think I have a pretty good idea of the type of towns you're interested in, and there are (in my opinion) a plethora of good rental options in those nice communities. Have you followed rental listings (on Craigslist, which many landlords use, and realtor.com) as closely as you've been following for sale listings?
Just sayin'.
You can see my handle -- I'm not just out of college and not prepared to rent forever. Someone who was waiting for the bubble to burst in 2003 would still be waiting today, and if they were to keep waiting, maybe wait a few years more for the slow bleed to get done. Meanwhile, 10 years of their life are spent waiting for the lifestyle they wanted.
I aren't going to buy or not buy based on what DB projects for the next 1 year. I'm more interested in buying something that I think looks like a genuinely good value proposition.
Right now, I like what I've been seeing in WO -- places that were pushing 500 in the bubble have come down to the high 300s. Many of these places are built either on the slope (the same slope that will cost you more than a million if you go south to SO or north to Montclair) or near the top of the hill, and I think this makes them a magnet for good housing.
1. Is available inventory going up or down in relation to the number of CONTRACTS being signed. For example, if a town has 100 listings, with 10 contracts average per month, then there's 10 months of unsold inventory... if prices/rates drop and homes start selling, it may go to 80 homes and 15 contracts per month, leaving unsold inventory of 5.3 months.
2. CONTRACT SIGNINGS: The number of contracts signed is related to the number of people who feel that prices are right, the economy is at least ok and their job prospects are good enough to actually buy. When these numbers increase (as they have been for the past several months) this is an indicator of an improving market. This has been the case here for he past few months.
3. MULTIPLE OFFERS: Homes that are priced right are selling and selling quickly. As a Realtor, I've seen several multiple-offer situations with homes selling at or over listing price.
4. ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL: Not only does real estate vary from state-to-state, it also varies from town to town. Look at the difference between foreclosure rates in Nevada vs NJ as an example. Our rate is 1/10 of what the foreclosure rates in Nevada. I'm not saying we should have a parade and celebrate, but it could be worse.
No one said housing is dead and people are not buying at all. As a matter a fact, I think everyone realizes on here that in the past few months activity has picked up. But for what reason? From what I can tell an lot of the sales are a probably a direct result of the homebuyer tax credit. I mean all you really have to do is look at the recent home sales and look at the prices of the properties that have recently sold. Lots of houses in the 200-300k range. Houses over 400k activity slows down quite a bit in most areas because most first time buyers do not buy homes in this price catagory.
You can see my handle -- I'm not just out of college and not prepared to rent forever. Someone who was waiting for the bubble to burst in 2003 would still be waiting today, and if they were to keep waiting, maybe wait a few years more for the slow bleed to get done. Meanwhile, 10 years of their life are spent waiting for the lifestyle they wanted.
I hear you, and I can understand your frustration. Just giving you an alternate take on the situation.
I don't doubt that you're among the rare class of people actually qualified to buy a home right now, and I have no worry that you'll be joining the ranks of those asking for gov't handouts anytime soon (which frustrates me to no end).
I do hope you have some serious family ties to this area, and stable jobs that will keep you here for the very long term, because while 1 year may not be your concern, you may need a very long term for that "value proposition" to come to fruition given all the manipulation that's being cooked into the market right now.
But you seem like a guy who has taken all that into consideration, and knows what from what. Good luck in your hunting!
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