62 days left for tax credit (mortgages, new home, neighborhood)
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Completely agree with your comments! I wonder what these numbers mean for us here in NJ though. Can't find much data on how the market is doing lately in northern Central NJ. My agent is telling me that the inventory is moving, yet, most of the homes we've seen are grossly overpriced, and many are still on the market. Very few sell. Does anybody have any idea on what is happening? Do you think that the down trends for December and January are representative of this area as well, or not really?
Places that are priced right are moving pretty quickly, but there are some seller who still insist on 2006 prices or close to that, and those places aren't going to sell.
It is interesting to look at sales -- some places go after a few days on the market, others within a few days of the last price reduction.
Sales numbers for December were low, partly because the tax credit pushed some demand forward. The real picture (ignoring the noise from the temporal demand shift caused by the credits) is probably that sales numbers have bottomed and will keep going up. However, until sales numbers return to normal (they're climbing, but still low), prices aren't going anywhere. Those sellers who are waiting for the return of 2006 prices will probably need to wait a few more years ...
Places that are priced right are moving pretty quickly, but there are some seller who still insist on 2006 prices or close to that, and those places aren't going to sell.
It is interesting to look at sales -- some places go after a few days on the market, others within a few days of the last price reduction.
Sales numbers for December were low, partly because the tax credit pushed some demand forward. The real picture (ignoring the noise from the temporal demand shift caused by the credits) is probably that sales numbers have bottomed and will keep going up. However, until sales numbers return to normal (they're climbing, but still low), prices aren't going anywhere. Those sellers who are waiting for the return of 2006 prices will probably need to wait a few more years ...
What happens when the the latest round of arms reset? Rates wont stay low forever.
What happens when the the latest round of arms reset? Rates wont stay low forever.
It will add to the number of distressed sales. If you have the patience for a short sale, that might help you get a good deal. The advantage of a short sale is that the price is no longer constrained by the seller's lack of equity -- they really have to set a price that reflects demand to get rid of it. The seller's nutty tendency to insist on peak prices is gone, and you just have the bank who are trying to get out and cut their losses.
I think the federal government will do all they can to stop prices falling (but no more than they have to). So I'd expect prices overall to stagnate, except in towns with very low sales. Where sales numbers are very low, it's a sign that prices need to fall further to clear out the inventory.
Stricter lending standards? My bank just said "ok" to a <5% down, 4x my income loan (which I'm unlikely to use, especially in NJ, but I'm looking around (and not seeing anything that isn't way over priced)) which isn't what I would call being strict.
They're just selling it on to Fannie and Freddie so us taxpayers can do some more bailing out. F&F are already overpaying for mortgages and are drowning in debt. This'll end well.....
Our economy depends on home sales. When someone buys a home, they go to Home Depot and spend more money, then they call a contractor to do repairs, and paint.
This is just the saddest comment on the failure of this nation. You CAN'T build a solid economy on people buying and selling each other houses. This is what has led to the empty shell we are now. We need something of substance to sell to other NATIONS (and not more houses). We need services and products other people want. What you are describing is just a ponzi scheme with window treatments.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sergio M
Truth be told, It's agreat time to buy a home!
Really? With the mortgage market propped up by the government? With 10% unemployment? With real salaries dropping (NJ down $7,000 on average)? With most sellers desperate to just get their money out (and asking above market rates)? With people scared?
Dude, I know it's your job, and you need to feel upbeat about it in order to get up in the morning, but please. This is anything but a good time to buy anything you can't pack in a truck and take with you. Until things settle down I have no use for an illiquid asset and money hog.
This is just the saddest comment on the failure of this nation. You CAN'T build a solid economy on people buying and selling each other houses. This is what has led to the empty shell we are now. We need something of substance to sell to other NATIONS (and not more houses). We need services and products other people want. What you are describing is just a ponzi scheme with window treatments.
Really? With the mortgage market propped up by the government? With 10% unemployment? With real salaries dropping (NJ down $7,000 on average)? With most sellers desperate to just get their money out (and asking above market rates)? With people scared?
Dude, I know it's your job, and you need to feel upbeat about it in order to get up in the morning, but please. This is anything but a good time to buy anything you can't pack in a truck and take with you. Until things settle down I have no use for an illiquid asset and money hog.
Hey, I feel your pain. I just sold a two family home to someone who had money to invest. He bought in a decent neighborhood for $128,000, the house was recently renovated. He put about 50K down and financed the rest. He will be renting both units @ 850 +/-. For his 50K investment, he will be putting about 400 mo. in his pocket every month, The tenants will be essentially paying off his debt. This is practically a free house to him. This is a fantastic deal and economy proof. You really need to know what to look for, and use this market to your advantage. There are plenty of great deals.
Here is what I have seen and been told. Good towns are selling but only if the house is priced right. If not the house will sit and sit and sit until the lower the price. Now your avg towns....the only thing I can say is about avg. towns is it sucks to live in one. Good luck selling your home. To give you an idea what I have seen.. I have seen homes that sold for 460k in Cranford hit the foreclosure list for 280k. Crazy stuff.
Yes, I am talking about a good town... And that's exactly what I am seeing, homes that are prices "right", meaning reasonable, are selling. However, will "priced right" now mean "overpriced" in the summer? Judging from the December and January numbers, sales are slowing down. My questions: 1. Do we know if that's true for us in NJ as well? 2. If that's the case, logic would dictate that prices will have to drop further... Agreed?
I know nobody has a crystal ball, but I am trying to determine if I should wait a little longer before we buy. We've been renting for the past 2 yrs, waiting for the prices to drop a little, and are so ready to settle. However, we have two teenagers, and if we wait much longer will not be able to enjoy the home with our kids, as they will leave for collage before we know it... Can't seem to find "the house" either, people are asking for too much even if they bought a long time ago... Should I compromise and buy something I am not very excited about now? Don't know....
Yes, I am talking about a good town... And that's exactly what I am seeing, homes that are prices "right", meaning reasonable, are selling. However, will "priced right" now mean "overpriced" in the summer? Judging from the December and January numbers, sales are slowing down. My questions: 1. Do we know if that's true for us in NJ as well? 2. If that's the case, logic would dictate that prices will have to drop further... Agreed?
I know nobody has a crystal ball, but I am trying to determine if I should wait a little longer before we buy. We've been renting for the past 2 yrs, waiting for the prices to drop a little, and are so ready to settle. However, we have two teenagers, and if we wait much longer will not be able to enjoy the home with our kids, as they will leave for collage before we know it... Can't seem to find "the house" either, people are asking for too much even if they bought a long time ago... Should I compromise and buy something I am not very excited about now? Don't know....
I understand what you are saying and as long as you are "happy" in your rental why bother buying now? Do you have everything you need in the rental or is something missing? Prices will never crash in NJ but I do believe as time goes on sellers will get more desperate.
I understand what you are saying and as long as you are "happy" in your rental why bother buying now? Do you have everything you need in the rental or is something missing? Prices will never crash in NJ but I do believe as time goes on sellers will get more desperate.
We are scarce on furniture that would add a bit of comfort... Figured, why buy now, it may not go with the new home. The place does not have a dishwasher, and I did not realize that at the time. We are having to do a lot of manual dish washing every night, and are sick of it. Nothing really major, I know, but the little things do make a difference in your day to day life... Other than that the rental is very nice and comfortable, lots of space, etc... We may have to wait for the February numbers to see if there is a trend...
We are scarce on furniture that would add a bit of comfort... Figured, why buy now, it may not go with the new home. The place does not have a dishwasher, and I did not realize that at the time. We are having to do a lot of manual dish washing every night, and are sick of it. Nothing really major, I know, but the little things do make a difference in your day to day life... Other than that the rental is very nice and comfortable, lots of space, etc... We may have to wait for the February numbers to see if there is a trend...
Here is what I will say, prices are not going up. I have been looking at this market for a while and most people are smoking crack and thats why houses just sit and sit. I have looked and seen wayy too many sob stories to rush out and get into something that I will regret. I figure every single month that I rent it just adds to my nest egg and most important to my kids security. The way to go is like elflord has said is a shore sale. Of course they are a headache but if you find the right one you could be golden. I will stick to my guns and ride this out. I could buy today and have no problems but the numbers just dont add up on 99% of homes. Until they do add up I am not even going to humor a seller.
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