What do you see NM to be in 10 yrs... (Albuquerque: schools, fence)
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Good question. I checked my crystal ball (currently imitating a piece of Zuni pottery) and came up with:
Albuquerque will continue to grow because of a favorable business climate and an available work force. The state will improve the school system to provide more adaptable workers. The city will also start building more retirement communities for the folks that cannot survive Florida’s humidity. Growth is unlikely to be very rapid because the overall US economy will slow as a consequence of the current financial crisis.
The lower Rio Grande valley will gain immigrant population as will neighboring El Paso. There will be growth associated with the spaceport unless the finance dries up due to the aforementioned financial crisis. Possibly the industrialization of Mexico will provide more opportunity for jobs in Mexico and reduce the flow of immigrants.
I also expect that New Mexico will have a new mineral rush as all mineral commodities increase in price because of world wide demand and improved transportation making export less costly. I think this will involve the base minerals more than gold and silver.
Smaller cities and towns will stabilize or continue the slow decline in population by importing a few old people that will replace the young folks headed for the city to get good jobs. This will lead to a fair amount of growth in elderly medical and social services mostly paid for by pensions, social security and Medicare originating outside New Mexico. The really small communities will grow less inhabited and become semi-ghost towns like the places along I-40 and the BNSF.
I do not expect a border fence but I do expect more effective control of illegal immigration. I also expect that some of the currently illegal drugs like marijuana will be legalized and the big tobacco companies will take over the distribution and sales. This will put some of the smugglers out of business.
Culturally I expect New Mexico to remain a mixture of Anglo and Hispanic with Hispanic becoming more dominant as it will in the rest of the country. Let us facie the fact that demographics is destiny and the Hispanics are having more children than the Anglos and these children will eventually become the dominant culture. I doubt if they will stay completely Hispanic and expect they will eventually blend into the rest. I hope for a return of the melting pot instead of the stew pot type of cultural assimilation.
That is enough for now. My crystal coffee cup is about empty. I would appreciate any comments.
I agree with most of your points Greg...except for the observation about marijuana; unlikely this highly controversial substance will gain acceptance any time soon. Even less likely it will become an adjunct to tobacco in the the immediate future. Perhaps as demographics morph in one direction or another we could see this occur; not in their current configuration.
No doubt the expanding hispanic element will increase in importance in every aspect of American culture and in particular in the southwest. Relatedly, and perhaps sadly, our borders will become less and less significant. Eventually the northern American continent could become a commonwealth consisting of at least the U.S., Mexico and Canada. All things change in time, nothing is permanent...not even stone.
I agree with most of your points Greg...except for the observation about marijuana; unlikely this highly controversial substance will gain acceptance any time soon. Even less likely it will become an adjunct to tobacco in the the immediate future. Perhaps as demographics morph in one direction or another we could see this occur; not in their current configuration.
No doubt the expanding hispanic element will increase in importance in every aspect of American culture and in particular in the southwest. Relatedly, and perhaps sadly, our borders will become less and less significant. Eventually the northern American continent could become a commonwealth consisting of at least the U.S., Mexico and Canada. All things change in time, nothing is permanent...not even stone.
To be totally honest, I don't see it changing all that much. NM is a kind of tradition-bound state that seems to be very comfortable with the way it is. There just doesn't appear to be any urgent desire for big changes.
Oh, there'll be areas that continue to experience growth: Las Cruces, Abq, and Santa Fe. And some small rural communities will continue to lose population. But that isn't really change. That's been the case for the past several decades.
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