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I don't really see that happening, although it's possible. The substantial number of units being built in the area keeps getting filled, and the income restrictions keep growing. The Via Verde co-ops in Melrose now have maximum incomes of up to $160,000, and the new 2 family townhomes also in Melrose are selling for $799,000 with income restrictions of $150,000.
There are however many more lower income restrictions, but with more developments coming online (not less) and income requirements growing, that should tell you the demand is strong. I suspect it would take a substantial and drawn out growth in crime, over the course of many years, to reverse the migration in any noticable way. But like I said..who knows. I think there is so much investment in the area, and the demand for affordable housing only growing, that it far outweighs the concerns many have about crime in NYC.
I don't know how people could look at the last two weeks posted of statistics and say that the numbers aren't adding up... Just for one case, look at the 61st precinct... That event that occured on the beach has not even been counted... there was also a murder in Mott Haven that occured within the last couple of weeks that wasn't reported on the precinct statistics either... I don't know if people are simply choosing to ignore these things because it makes them feel better but this is just a couple in a number of cases where they are not reporting these things... This is why I do not trust these statistics at all...
@ bluedog I agree with the murder statistics being up and down this year but as far as rapes are concerned, there are many precincts this year that have experienced an increase... This is why the overall number itself has jumped by a significant number...
@ sobroguy I don't even know what to say to you anymore but I will try to help you understand the situation of the area you live in by giving you some statistics...
Lowell, Massachusetts has a population of just under 100,000... It has consistently ranked in the top 10-20 worst cities in the country for years... I believe that 2009 was it's worst year for murder total with 16 or 17... If a city like Lowell, would have experienced the increase in murders that your area has experienced, the city would be in panic mode... I don't know in what mind is going from 3 murders to 9 and now 4 murders to 10 in a span of 5 and a half months equates to (a minimal jump in the crime rate), but if this were to be happening in any other part of the country like it was happening to DC county for a brief period, it would be continental news...
Here is an interesting Bernie Goetz type vigilante crime in Brooklyn.A guy got ticked off at "thugs" hanging out on his block so he got out his rifle(illegal) and shot them.It happened in Marine Park.Lots of problems in the waterfront areas of Brooklyn.
So I see I wasn't crazy, this year so far has been something else, I'm disgusted everytime it turn around. Could've sworn I heard a shotgun the other day, if it wasn't that then it had to be closely related.
Hopefully this is my last summer in NYC (South Jamaica).
That's true if it were happening in any other city (or most cities) it would be news..but this is NYC and its own animal. I don't need you to tell me about my neighborhood, or explain me anything about it. Conceptually however, we have a basic disagreement about crime, the causes of crime, the victims of crime, and the perception of crime.
While you may believe the world is coming to an end, or a few weeks of data means we are on a downward spiral, the reality in this community is that those few who are murdered are almost always part of the drug trade or know the perpetrator (family/friend etc). It doesn't matter where in the country you are..if you are involved in that lifestyle, or with crazy/violent people who have no issue killing someone else...it can happen to you anywhere. And NYC is no different in that regard.
If you keep your nose clean, and live your life without getting involved in that element, and use basic street smarts, which are all the things you should be doing in any neighborhood in NYC regardless of how "safe" it is, then you are highly unlikely to be the victim of anything. Take it from someone who has lived in the community for generations...that's the absolute simple answer. There was a time when random acts of violence were prevalent, and that was at the nadir, but today..it's a world of difference.
I think you misunderstand what I say most of the time... We already agree with the notion on the past... Believe it or not I didn't live in a bubble in the 70s, 80s or 90s... I knew what it was and I experienced that lifestyle... What I'm saying is that it seems as if your whole mission is to disregard the crime that happens in your area like it's no problem...
"Oh the reality is that we've gone from 3-9 murders so far??? So those six extra bodies mean nothing to you... You do realize that not everyone that gets killed in this city is a drug dealer, involved in a gang or a trouble maker... and this year there has been many cases where those that have been killed may not have been random acts of violence but the people they shot at were innocent victims... so how does that make the situation any better???
It's almost as if the youth nowadays seems it has something to prove so they don't settle their problems talking it out or being responsible, they settle their problems not even with fist fights but with guns... And people that have nothing to do with these issues are getting hurt or losing there lives in the process...
Another issue which you conveniently choose to ignore because we all know it's the truth is that the crime statistics and the murder numbers if you follow the stories are not matching with the actual amount of murders and violent crimes that are actually taking place which is already above last year's total...
This is my biggest problem... How do we know how safe we really are in this city when we can't even trust the statistics to give us a fair representation of our neighborhoods? Again, this city is way safer overall when what you said was definitely true, random acts of violence were more frecuent... But noone is debating that... What we are talking about here is what seems to be at least for almost two years now, an increasing violent crime trend where felony assaults, rapes and murders (if you follow the stories and not the statistics) are increasing...
@ sobroguy, if what you say is true about the decreasing trend which we know is true... then why continue to cover up the crimes that are committed? What good does that do other than provide a false sense of security to the hundreds of thousands of people that flock to the hoods of NYC because "crime is minimal"... We've already discussed on this page that that is a load of crap... If areas like Brownsville, Mott Haven, East NY, South Jamaica were there own cities, we'd have some of the highest crime areas in the country to this day...
I understand the fact that the reality for about 30% of NYC isn't the reality for the other 70%... but the fact remains, that 30% are still dealing with numbers that are relatively high considering how many patrol cops patrol these areas on a daily basis...
Here is an interesting Bernie Goetz type vigilante crime in Brooklyn.A guy got ticked off at "thugs" hanging out on his block so he got out his rifle(illegal) and shot them.It happened in Marine Park.Lots of problems in the waterfront areas of Brooklyn.
I'm not advocating what this man did, but sometimes enough is enough.
There are always young thugs loitering on people's property, drinking,
smoking weeds, creating trouble and making noises all night long. The
cops would not do anything about it, but the building super or home
owner would have to cleanup all kinds of garbage like broken beer bottles
and cigarette butts the next day.
I've seen these kind of behavior all the time when I was in Ridgewood.
One time they even tie up turtle and pigeon with M80 or cherry bombs
in the middle of the night and blow it up around July 4th.
anon I would say that I am sad for the families when people die, but when you have thugs poisoning our kids, and holding entire communities hostage with violence and fear...I am not sad to see them die. It's harsh but life is harsh. If you live that lifestyle, you know the outcome and it is deal they make with the devil. And life goes on...What is really sad is that there are too many waiting in the wings to take their place...so the underlying problem is not solved.
We all agree that the crime stats are not 100% and are fudged..and it happens in every city. But it's all we have and we take them with a grain a salt...and it is nothing more than a reasonable guide, not bible. In addition I don't think anyone is saying crime is minimal, but if you keep your nose clean, use basic street smarts, and stay out of the thug/drug dealing world, for the most part crime should not be a major issue in your life. Of course there are those living in housing projects who are trapped and cannot remove themselves from that environment...so there are 2 sides.
But nobody is saying "move here life is perfect and crime-free." What I say is stay out of that lifestyle, and you can actually live just fine in these communities, and the movement of people into these communities and new developments is proving this to be correct.
That is definitely true. I guess I just don't understand how something that got as much press as that shootout could not be registered in the crime stats... I mean to me it's really worrysome that if something like that isn't posted, how many other events do we not know about it, since we use it as our guide... I was waiting last week to see the 8 murders shown in that bloody weekend and yet I only saw four. This week the brighton beach shootout has 1 death and five others injured and yet no murders recorded for the 61st precinct in neither week...
How much more blatant do you have to be to disregard these crimes that received so much negative publicity...
SoBro, I think you're far too dismissive of many people on here. For one thing, your flippant attitude towards death is very disrespectful. I bet a mother thinking about her dead child due to a stray bullet isn't going to want to hear some garbage about "There's less stray bullets this year than in 1991". Each murder represents a real person who is now dead, so please think about that.
Secondly, each and every single one of your posts are the same thing about how anyone who has an issue with NYC crime is an alarmist or exaggerating. The fact is far too many neighborhoods still have far too much drama. Using numbers from the height of the crack epidemic is very distortive. If crime is in fact rising in NYC, then we should note it and do something about it. Every avalance starts with a snowflake. Crime didn't explode overnight back in the late 60s/early 70s, it started with a decline in civic attitude and people ignoring/not caring. By the time the murder rate was sky high and the trains were covered in graffiti it was too late. It took alot of work to bring NYC to where it is today and by taking your polyanna attitude we risk flushing it down the toilet yet again.
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