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I too agree that it is a bit too early in the week to know the exact amount of snow that will fall Sunday night. Originally they predicted the storm to be on Saturday. Also the European model for weather forecasts has been correct quite a few times so I agree that it shouldn't be dismissed yet.
That European model has had a pretty good record lately and should not be readily dismissed. It was really the only one that early on predicted Sandy's right hook smashing into New Jersey. Plus there was another storm that it was uniquely correct with.
skinnaayyyy, With 30 inches you might get a week long weekend.
30 inches according to the European model?? That's an unprecedented amount of snow for NYC to get. It's a bit too early to be making predictions like that though it is concerning since the European models are mostly accurate from what I heard- time to book a last minute flight to a warm locale maybe?
That European model has had a pretty good record lately and should not be readily dismissed. It was really the only one that early on predicted Sandy's right hook smashing into New Jersey. Plus there was another storm that it was uniquely correct with.
skinnaayyyy, With 30 inches you might get a week long weekend.
I'd be fine with that!
I'm no stranger to snow, and I've been through plenty of storms where it snowed that much. The only difference was it was in Michigan and nothing was even shut down. But that's an apples to oranges comparison.
30 inches according to the European model?? That's an unprecedented amount of snow for NYC to get. It's a bit too early to be making predictions like that though it is concerning since the European models are mostly accurate from what I heard- time to book a last minute flight to a warm locale maybe?
Very unusual but not unprecendented. The blizzard of 1996 had 20 inches recorded in Central Park, but other parts of the city/borough did report over 30 inches.
NBC is now predicting not that much snowfall for Sunday's snowstorm.
In case nobody has noticed,the pattern this year has been for the computers to accurately predict storms more than a week out, then back off during the intermediate period ,only to return to the original forecast in the last 24 to 48 hours. In other words,the longer term forecasts have been more accurate than the intermediate term forecasts. This is because the computers first predict an off-shore storm track that is favorable for big snow along the East coast,then later change and push the storm track further out to sea and then, in the end, bring the storm track back to the closer in ,big snow track.
Doesn't necessarily mean it will happen again with this storm on Sunday but that has been the pattern.
Another thing to consider is that every winter the weather seems to let us know "where" it wants to snow on the East Coast.Some years it wants to snow further North and East and Boston gets all the snow and we get a lot less and Philly,DC get almost none.Other years it "wants to snow" around NY and Long Island and they get less further North and West.Some years it actually snows more in Philly and DC than it does in NY or Boston.Some years all the snow gets dumped right along the coast with less inland and some years it all gets dumped inland and it rains along the coast.For whatever reason,this year,it wants to snow around NYC so that pattern may also continue.
Of course,the patterns can change in the middle of a winter but generally they don't.Once established,they tend to hang on for a while.And sometimes the pattern will deviate slightly for a storm or two in the middle of the season but then revert to the pattern established early in the season.
In the old days there used to be meteorologists who would make their predictions based on these types of patterns with no computer guidance whatsoever and many of them were extremely accurate.
Non-event, this storm is going to blow out to sea. We'll get jack
Actually,it didn't blow out to sea,it came too close and that is why it was more liquid.In order for NYC to get a big storm, the low pressure center must move along a track that is about 100 miles South and East of Montauk ,Long Island.Too much further out and nothing,too much closer and mostly rain. That's what happened today…storm center practically went right over Montauk,changing everything to rain.
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