U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > New York > New York City
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
 
Old 02-16-2014, 01:46 AM
 
25,543 posts, read 19,636,251 times
Reputation: 10018

Advertisements

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/16/re...ealestate&_r=0

According to this article, Manhattan rents are down and vacancies are up. This article says vacancies are at the highest level in a decade.

Will this get better as the weather warms or is this a long term trend? Because though the article says cold weather is a factor, there are other factors that cannot be dismissed. NYC has a new mayor. Could the current mayor's politics or perception of them effect the city's real estate? Keep in mind Bloomberg rode Giuliani's coat tails to power. De Blasio run as an anti Bloomberg, his getting elected signaled the END of the Giuliani/Bloomberg era.

Also, the article points out.

"Going forward, however, the residential real estate business may have to face a changing reality: Rents have been climbing faster than incomes, so the current slowdown may signal that the market is correcting itself.

“The city is not just Wall Street anymore,” said David Picket, the president of the Gotham Organization, a longtime apartment developer. “It’s become much more diversified. But the bad news is that people in those new industries aren’t making the same kinds of salaries.”"

If Manhattan continues to decline, you can kiss any hope of gentrification further way in ghetto parts of Brooklyn and the Bronx GOOD BYE. It means the Bronx itself ain't happening, and areas not already gentrified in Brooklyn ain't happening.
Rate this post positively Quick reply to this message

 
Old 02-16-2014, 07:02 AM
 
Location: New York City
4,037 posts, read 9,324,917 times
Reputation: 3735
If the top end is overextended (which had to happen sooner or later), it doesn’t necessarily follow that the demand for middle-market apartments will plateau as well. It doesn’t bode well of high-end rentals on the LIC waterfront. However, low-end, Bushwick-style gentrification will continue unabated because it’s about artists and professional looking for comparatively affordable housing.
Rate this post positively Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-16-2014, 07:02 AM
 
Location: Manhattan
22,932 posts, read 30,856,637 times
Reputation: 10840
I have no reason to doubt the logic.
You simply cannot hold median income constant and expect everyone to continue paying higher anf higher prices for a place to live.

Only fools assume that what has been must continue to be what will be.

Just WAIT until the Fed has the balls to stop the monthly waterfall of money into the banks and financial markets.
Rate this post positively Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-16-2014, 07:07 AM
 
83,098 posts, read 80,600,042 times
Reputation: 59143
Wait for what?

Want to bet nothing happens after a knee jerk reaction. Little of that money is even in circulation. Consumer debt is falling and corporations were borrowing little.
Valuations on stocks are lower than they were 13 years ago.

Not sure what you think will happen.

The fed buying 85 billion a month in a 100 trillion in bonds held and traded world wide is peeing in the ocean.

It has only been symbolic as to where the fed hopes investors pushed rates.
Rate this post positively Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-16-2014, 07:17 AM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY
1,271 posts, read 2,835,398 times
Reputation: 824
Rents are noisy. They always been. Long term it's been up-up-up since the early '90s, but individual years will have drops for no particular reason (at least in part because the rent "statistics" are very poorly calculated and not even remotely scientific). Did gentrification end in 2009? Rents dropped a lot more then.
Rate this post positively Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-16-2014, 07:33 AM
 
83,098 posts, read 80,600,042 times
Reputation: 59143
I agree ,where rents go within a tight range have little to do with gentrification.
Gentrification takes in far more than just a slight rise or fall in rents.

Rents fluctuate with market conditions just like any other assets. But overall the trends have been up over the longer term.
Rate this post positively Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-16-2014, 07:54 AM
 
Location: Manhattan
22,932 posts, read 30,856,637 times
Reputation: 10840
Quote:

Wait for what?
Wait for markets to crash and rents to drop. If the fed drops it's monthly stimulus to zero, the bottom will fall out of New York City, the biggest beneficiary of this stagflation stimulation.
No sense arguing. We will all be able to observe what happens IF the FED stops shoveling a trillion a year of funny money into the banks.
It seems clear though that the Fed, despite it's blather, is petrified of what will happen.

If they were not frightened beyond their wits, they'd have stopped this endless stimulus long ago but they know that the administration, like all administrations, embraces an inflating stock market bubble.
Rate this post positively Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-16-2014, 08:46 AM
 
83,098 posts, read 80,600,042 times
Reputation: 59143
I would bet nothing of the sort happens. The worlds Markets will take over and and it will be business as usual after a slight knee jerk reaction.

There is no real basis for much else to happen.

If the worlds investors were not happy where rates are now the potential 100 trillion in bonds out there can easily wrestle rates away from the fed.

In fact they already did that the first time around when qe1 ended.

Bill gross dumped all his treasuries thinking when the fed pulled out rates would soar and markets would plunge.

It was his biggest mis-calculation ever as rates plunged further once the worlds investors got control of rates. Markets took off as well.
Rate this post positively Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-16-2014, 09:12 AM
 
Location: Westminster, London
878 posts, read 1,227,371 times
Reputation: 714
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kefir King View Post
Just WAIT until the Fed has the balls to stop the monthly waterfall of money into the banks and financial markets.
Rate this post positively Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-16-2014, 09:22 AM
 
4,080 posts, read 3,786,515 times
Reputation: 3373
with the gloabal bubble in emmerging markets especially china on the brink of PIAJI, financial turmoils will resurface back here given the largest creditor facing uncertainties in solving its own credit crunch.
The quesstion then will be, where does the US borrow money ftom to spend on those luxurious ceremonies and president vacations?
Rate this post positively Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


 
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > New York > New York City
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top