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Old 01-03-2008, 01:28 PM
 
Location: Pawleys Island, SC
1,696 posts, read 8,325,851 times
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Quote:
they love me...as most people do


Congratulations to the people of NYC. Homicides are at a modern day low and that is good for the entire city.

Kudos to those who have made it a reality... the members of the Emergency Medical Service and the medical personnel of city's hosiptals for their dedication and expertise which undoubtedly saved many from their demise. To the NYC Police Department whose members work very hard to prevent these crimes from occurring also respond to assaults, disputes and other crime scenes to investigate, secure and arrest the bad guys oftentimes placing themselves in grave danger. (officers have been fired upon 7 separate times within the first 48 hours of the new year). To the rest of the NYC workforce, through your work the quality of life has increased, therefor reducing the tendency towards violence.

In comparison to other large cities, NYC has a ratio of 6 people to 100,000 per capita to be a victim of homicide. New Orleans has 71 to 100k, tops in the nation. Chicago has around 20 yo 100k. And in shear numbers, there were nearly 2300 homicides in 1990, equating to over 20,000 less funerals since then. If violence leads to more violence... then does peace lend to more peace? We'll see how long it will continue.
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Old 01-03-2008, 01:36 PM
 
Location: Mott Haven
2,978 posts, read 3,448,834 times
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Baylovers you have given KUDOS to everyone EXCEPT those that are the most important..the people of NYC are the ones that have made it a reality. They have worked with the police to make their communities safer, they have decided ENOUGH is ENOUGH and have taken back many streets from the thugs and dealers. They have decided to STAY and make things better rather than RUN like so many have before them, they have changed their mentality towards themselves and their communities. They have worked with the city and created grass roots initiatives to reclaim abandoned lots for community gardens and playgrounds, rehabbed housing for the poor and working classes, and have overcome monumental mental, physical, and social limits to help create the safe, and liveable city that you see today.

KUDOS TO THE PEOPLE OF NYC WHO CHOSE NOT TO LEAVE.
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Old 01-03-2008, 07:59 PM
 
Location: bronx - north
473 posts, read 1,569,165 times
Reputation: 110
Default well

well you know i'm a big fan of MH. I'll be there MLK weekend .... one of my friends is coming in and i'll be entertaining.... so let me knwo if you'll be around. maybe we can go visit your favorite thug @ pio pio. (j/k)
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Old 01-03-2008, 10:19 PM
 
5 posts, read 4,118 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guywithacause View Post
I agree that alot of the homicides are dispute related..however you should concern yourself of that number as it is indicative of what is going in the city overall. In 1991 (Or 90) the murder rate was over 2,000!!! That is cause for alarm and that kind of wreckless and free flowing crime had the city in havoc....so having a total UNDER 500 is something to take note of...it is impressive.
Most of those murders in the early 90s and late 80s were drug related. Most murders today are over disputes. The change between dispute related murders now and then have seen little change in the highest crime areas of the city. They have declined but not by much and in many of the worst areas are actually on the rise in recent years. If you compare the murders in 2007 with a similar total back in 1963 or whatever, 2007 had more stranger on stranger murders over disputes. There was a finding on that put out last year and it has been the trend. More importantly though the murders rates in the worst areas of the city are still high. Even worse are felony assault and robbery rates which are on par with the worst areas of the "worst" cities in the USA. Basically in the high crime sections of NYC people get murdered for the same reasons people do in other cities. Only the rate of drug related killings is down a lot. That can be attributed to the fall of crack and increase in marijuana sales, combined with a low income overpopulation situation in the city's ghettos. If you understand supply and demand you will understand this concept. Marijuana has a much larger consumer base then crack, that means competition has fallen and that is why drugs are sold from every building in the ghettos of this city. Drug killings still happen but they are rarely over territory, usually after a dealer gets ripped off or a robbery. What all this means is crime is still a serious problem in the low income communities of NYC and at anytime we can have another murder spike. What makes this more likely is a shrinking police force, an increase in the number of children living in or near poverty and failing schools. The future of the city's low income communities looks grim. The same social problems that existed in the early 1990's still exist. Only now a lot of these kids are even more screwed up. They will not be productive members of society and it already shows. [quote=Guywithacause;2401344]
Furthermore, the assertion that the number is an anomoly or due to a minor loss in population from 06-07 is utterly ludicrous...sounds like you are grasping for straws to support your silly assertions rather than understanding why crime is down. Although crime may edge up or down slightly over the last few years...it has been on a huge downward trend for 15 years...and that trend is stabilizing....but NOT increasing.....the long term trend is what matters....and crime in the city IS decreasing..and continues to do so.

I'm pretty confident murders will be up next year compared to 07. I do know the city has pretty much stabilized unless much of Brooklyn North gentrifies or Harlem then there will be further drops. Both unlikely considering how expensive this city has gotten and the latest demographic changes in the city. The Asians are the only ones still moving in now. Population is starting to decline and Asians will eventually stall too. It will be very interesting to see how things go.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guywithacause View Post
And I suspect that the areas you term "dumpy" are places you could no longer afford to buy..and theya re most definitely neighborhoods in transition and improving everyday. Crime is most definitely higher in certian nabes...and they are less desireable..but the days of "dumpiness" are over....they are just not as nice as others.
Lol, What are you talking about? I am not involved in real estate and could care less about it. It seems to me it is the dumpy areas are those you are trying to push for your own benefit. Those areas I mentioned are very "dumpy". They have social problems out the ass. Who the hell wants to live in those places who doesn't have to.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bx718 View Post
hhhmmm I don't know guy - safe? yes. AMAZINGLY SAFE? argumentative.

I mean, crime does happen. People, not involved in crime end up in the statistics from being robbed, from being raped, from being victims of burglary and miscellaneous thugging.

I just checked the crime stats for the 44 and there is already 1 murder, 2 rapes, 15 robberies, 8 assaults and 6 burglaries.Now i just checked for the 108 - L.I.C - which is home to queens bridge projects, astoria projects and the ravenswood projects; there were 0 murders, 0 rapes, 7 burglaries and 8 assaults.

So maybe saying that NYC is amazingly safe puts that comment on the other end of Mead's bar? i.e. one side is the fear mongers, NYC is a killing zone and on the other side is "Guy" (lol) with the amazingly safe placard.

amazingly safe will be riding the 5 train midtown and back 10 times and recording no incidents.

amazingly safe will be, songbird going back to her NH without any incidents.

amazingly safe will be the case when one does not seeing stabbings on the bus and cops are not being shot at from roof tops(harlem on new years eve . if this had happened in the bronx it will be business as usual. it's expected....... it's the bronx.. but no one is bashing harlem for having some up and coming thugs unloading on cops...)

anyway ..........so is nyc amazingly safe? bx718 doesn't think so but then again neither is it like fallujah
The city overall has a lot more low crime areas compared to it's worst years but violent crime is still a big problem in the city's ghettos. Anyone who doesn't accept that is only lieing to themself or in this case others. Things even happen in the lower crime areas but but crime is not as big a concern there. In Forest Hills you might not want to leave the radio in the car but in Harlem you don't want to have to walk to the store late at night. There is a big difference in the level of violence between low and high crime areas.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guywithacause View Post
Lol...none of those statements are Amazingly safe...those are nonsesical scenarios that have not existed in this city EVER.

When I say amazingly safe...it is in the prespective that there are 8 million people crammed in a teeny weeny area, jostling for everything...plus the extra million or so that commute in and out everyday...plus the tens of millions of tourists that criss cross the city every year. And at the end of the day...for all those untold tens of millions of people that flood the city everyday...there are less than 500 murders....I would say that most definitely qualifies as an Amazingly safe city.

Yes there is still crime..but when you put it into perspective..there is a relatively small police force, that is supposedly undermanned, underpaid, and lacking resources for such a huge population, yet the murder rate is still INCREDIBLY low. Would anyone care to post another large city anywhere in the country that can boast such low numbers comparatively?

Unless you enjoy spending your time in the housing projects fo Bed-Stuy, or your best friends are crypts, or you are compelled to hang out at the local bodegas at 3am, this city is, in fact, Amazingly safe. I stand by my statement 100%...and thats from someone who lives directly across the street from gargantuan housing projects in Mott Haven.
If you think like that then every city in the USA is safe. Most of the violent crime goes down in the low income sections of the city. NYC has more low crime areas then other large cities. Yea, your not going to get killed at random your first day walking to the store in the ghetto but there is a very real chance you could get mugged walking to that store at night or that you can get burglarized or even get into an altercation about something very petty. Very common in those areas. It's not just the people involved in criminality that get victimized. When you live in a high crime area crime is going to be concern. It can happen to anyone at random. The more time you spend in those high crime areas the more likely you are to get victimized. Plenty people get mugged just going to work and its a lot more common then most people realize.
Quote:
Originally Posted by baylovers View Post


Congratulations to the people of NYC. Homicides are at a modern day low and that is good for the entire city.

Kudos to those who have made it a reality... the members of the Emergency Medical Service and the medical personnel of city's hosiptals for their dedication and expertise which undoubtedly saved many from their demise. To the NYC Police Department whose members work very hard to prevent these crimes from occurring also respond to assaults, disputes and other crime scenes to investigate, secure and arrest the bad guys oftentimes placing themselves in grave danger. (officers have been fired upon 7 separate times within the first 48 hours of the new year). To the rest of the NYC workforce, through your work the quality of life has increased, therefor reducing the tendency towards violence.

In comparison to other large cities, NYC has a ratio of 6 people to 100,000 per capita to be a victim of homicide. New Orleans has 71 to 100k, tops in the nation. Chicago has around 20 yo 100k. And in shear numbers, there were nearly 2300 homicides in 1990, equating to over 20,000 less funerals since then. If violence leads to more violence... then does peace lend to more peace? We'll see how long it will continue.
Although EMS and NYPD played it's part the biggest contributer was time. The high crime areas in NYC are still very violent. Some will be gentrified, others will continue to be very violent areas. Or who knows, it can all go to hell. Chicago has a murder rate of 16 per 100,000 and the worst neighborhoods average about 20-30 per 100,000 while the lower crime areas have 0-1 killings a year. Much more of Chicago's population lives in the hoods but the violent crime rate in Chicago isn't too much higher then NYC. Murder rate is much more a dramatic difference. As a matter fact the worst areas for crime in NYC are on par with the worst areas in Chicago. New Orleans is a disaster. Huge population loss and a lot of people living in the city at an economic disadvantage. Those who have no where else to go. They smoked crack era records after Katrina. There are a lot of murders happening all over the city. Bad comparison.
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Old 01-04-2008, 07:48 AM
 
Location: Mott Haven
2,978 posts, read 3,448,834 times
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Thats a big post so I will keep my response brief:

-There is no argument that crime is still a problem in low income communites, however the difference is, instead of crime and blatant drug problems being a problem ALL over the city, it has withdrawn to smaller areas in low income communities. There was a time 20 years ago where Washington Square Park, Bryant Park, Madison Square Park, all of Hells Kitchen, LES, 42nd Street, the list goes on and on in Manhattan, as well as HUGE swaths of the otuerboroughs, were ALL facing the crime issues that now ONLY plague smaller low income communities, basically in the outerboroughs. This withdrawal of crime into smaller low income communities is the trend that you should follow and is the most notable. The crime continues to drop througout the city, and although low income communities still have crime problems in comparison to other parts of the city, the changes that have occured EVEN in these communities has been phenomenal. If you believe the crime/problems have not improved in the low income communities versus 1990, then you either do not live in these areas or get too much info from eyewitness news.

-Your rational for being "pretty confident that murders will be up in the city" is more of the same baseless stereotypes that the city could not possibly continue to improve and "defy the odds." Your gut feelings, and ridiculous support for this statement is laughable. You throw in a random reference to "demographic changes" and the "shrinking population" and "asians are the only ones moving in now." Is that supposed to convince anyone you know anything that you are takling about? NOBODY knows what will happen in 2008, and certianly NOT you based on your "feelings." In fact, unless something DRASTIC changes in the city, there is in fact NO reason to believe that the murder rate will go up in any significant way. But again, NOBODY knows.

-Regarding the "dumpy" areas, I have no interest in pushing anything. I provide a fair an accurate assessment that the areas ARE improving, and the numbers are there to back up my statement. Does that mean they do not suffer from societal ills? Heck no...but they ARE being addresses and these areas are imrpoving. Of course when you form an opinion based on "eyewitness news" or driving by on the Bruckner Expway....I would not say that is an accurate assessment of the community. Then again..its easier to say its all a dump..rather than actually gaining the knowledge, revitalization, and changes occuring in an area.

-Your fear mongering about all the people getting mugged going to work, or going to the store at night is absurd. This fear USED TO BE warranted, but the city has changed, and many of these areas you term a "dump" have become quite livable, and the crime rates you see in these areas are lower NOW than Manhattan was 20 years ago...yet people were still seeking Manhattan, and living their lives back then...and people are NOW doing the same in these low income areas. Your fear mongering is just pushing more of the same old steretypes...nice work!

-Time was most certainly not the biggest contributor. It was a concerted effort by everyone that made the changes that you see today..not time. Ridiculous. You may believe that some low income areas will either be gentrified (this means improve I assume), continue to be very violent areas, or it can all go to hell. Is it possible areas can improve (revitalize) without gentrification? Because that is exactly what is occuring in large swaths of the Bronx..it is not gentrification...it is a revitazliation driven by the community, and benefitting the working and middle class of the city. But of course....to you its all a dump, unless of course it is "gentrified."

You seem to potray yourself as some sort of expert on crime, and have all the answers, as well as the ability to see the future...but just remember that YOU are giving JUST an opinion, and it is no more right than anyone else's. I wholeheartedly disagree with your dismal vision of 2008, low income communities, and the change that is occuring in the city (people are leaving, nobody is coming any more, except Asians right?). There is always the naysayers...and they have ALWAYS been proven wrong...and this case is no different. A clock strikes 3 twice a day...so inevitably you will be right once in awhile, but in the long run, your negativity is just that...
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Old 01-04-2008, 07:51 AM
 
Location: Mott Haven
2,978 posts, read 3,448,834 times
Reputation: 209
I tried for a brief posting it just did not happen.
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Old 01-04-2008, 08:01 AM
 
Location: Confines of the 101 Precinct
23,681 posts, read 37,906,563 times
Reputation: 10319
actually some precincts in brooklyn saw an increase in murders this year i believe they were the 77th, 81st, and 73rd. there was 1 in the bronx too but i forgot which one. so while the crime rate of the city is in overall decline, there are still certain "hot spots" that have continued to increase.
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Old 01-04-2008, 08:13 AM
 
Location: Mott Haven
2,978 posts, read 3,448,834 times
Reputation: 209
Seventh lets be reasonable...if there is ONE in the Bronx that had a higher (even just +1 higher), is that REALLY indicative of a "hot spot"? And does a small increase or small decrease from year to year mean anything? Not at all...it is achievment just to have them stable at such historically LOW numbers..and I believe, based on the changes that are occuring in the low income areas like Bed-Stuy Brooklyn, it will continue the decreasing trend...of course some years will be up..some down..but the LONGTERM trend is really what counts. But then again...you never know.
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Old 01-04-2008, 08:15 AM
 
Location: Confines of the 101 Precinct
23,681 posts, read 37,906,563 times
Reputation: 10319
when you compare 1 precinct with 29-30 murders to another precinct that only had 1 or 2 for the whole year, then yes that is considered a hot spot.
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Old 01-04-2008, 08:24 AM
 
Location: Mott Haven
2,978 posts, read 3,448,834 times
Reputation: 209
Agreed..but that is not the example you gave in the prior post for a "hot spot." Furthermore, you cannot just compare simple numbers, as the population in each precinct is critical to compare. A precinct with 5 people and 1 or 2 murders would be far worse than a precint with 100,000 people and 30 murders....of course this is just for illustration.
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