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The Giuliani coalition was the Bloomberg coalition. A white liberal Republican could still be elected in this city with little trouble. This past election campaign was unique. Everyone and their mother thought for sure that Quinn had it in the bag. Lhota never stood a chance. He had no name recognition, and what little name recognition he did have was negative. Too many people hate the MTA. He had no charisma. He was too conservative. De Blasio was a breath of fresh air to a lot of people who didn't like Quinn and Weiner.
Have De Blasio attack the cops for a few more years, let crime go up, give Al Sharpton the key to the city, and do nothing as the people of New York complain about the awful speed limit law, and watch De Blasio lose by a historic number, only four years after winning by a historic number.
Are there less Italians and Irish than there were 20 years ago? Sure. There's also a lot more Russians, and they went for Lhota. Other than blacks in Coney Island and Chinese in Bensonhurst, Lhota swept Southern Brooklyn. Likewise, other than black and Latino slums, Lhota swept Staten Island... and Lhota was an inferior candidate.
Breezy Point, Howard Beach, all of the predictable white neighborhoods went for Lhota. For the Republicans to win again, things only need to continue to go the way they're going. Jews, Asians, and many other traditionally liberal groups support the police and don't want thugs in their neighborhoods. Bloomberg was too successful. Crime was too low. People don't look for a law & order conservative when they're not afraid to go out at night.
De Blasio basically won because he became the leading anti Bloomberg candidate. A lot of white New Yorkers I know who would support moderate Republicans loathed what Bloomberg did in changing the law so he could have a third term and changing it back so no one else could. They took this out on Quinn. As for Weiner, no explanation is needed for why he isn't mayor.
Except crime hasn't gone up, it's still gone DOWN.
In the 1990s, easy welfare was eliminated and many of the hoodlums from those days died due to gang violence, drugs, Aids, Hepatitis, and other ailments. Crime isn't going to go back to the late 80s/early 90s.
De Blasio chose Bratton has his chief of police.
When you mentioned Lhota, how did do in well to do white neighborhoods of Western Brooklyn? Poorly. Obviously he did poorly in Northeastern Brooklyn. How did Lhota do in Flushing, Queens (Asian), Elmhurst, etc. De Blasio won the Asian vote, the more well to do white vote (Manhattan, Western Brooklyn, Western Queens) and the Black and Latino vote (the Bronx, Central Queens, Eastern Queens, parts of Brooklyn).
The people missing Giuliani so much on this forum are senior citizens who are approaching nursing homes (state owned facilities, not wealthy people). Giuliani's base was the white working class, many of whom are now literally on their way out.
Let me ask you this? Are blacks in NYC better off with Obama as POTUS? Were Blacks better off with Dinkins as Mayor?
Blacks are in the same rut that whites are in but are suffering more due to the problems with respect to the economy, wages, healthcare, jobs, taxes, and the cost of living. Congress can't even spend their time passing legislation to create jobs with decent wages. Dinkins had his problems but he isn't worse mayor this city has ever had. The racism between blacks, whites and others was high at that time. He did create CCRB. So yes and no.
Last edited by belltolls; 12-15-2014 at 10:26 AM..
As Bla moves way from the policies of the Giuliani and Bloomberg administrations, that had the effect of making NYC a much more safer and more livable city then it had previously been, we'll likely see the return of the problems that preceded those policies. Much of the population of NYC either wasn't around when those problems last manifested themselves, or have forgotten. They're much more fixated on the perceived negative effects of those policies, so they supported Bla. However when the problems come back, and these people start getting impacted, they'll be screaming for Giuliani (or a successor with a similar attitude), to return.
We saw all this in the late 80's. Everyone was euphoric when Dinkins was elected. They were so happy to have a black mayor, to show how progressive the city was. Then he promptly ran it in the ground, and let crime get out of control (with the murder rate peaking at over 2,600 murders per year.) When it came to for the next election, no one wanted to have anything to do with him, and Giuliani was elected. If history repeats itself, history will repeat itself. Except for skin color, I see lots of Dinkins in Bla.
Dinkins won against the incumbent Ed Koch. Koch lost because he was embroiled in scandals and his indifference towards race relations in the city. Crime was still high then.
As Bla moves way from the policies of the Giuliani and Bloomberg administrations, that had the effect of making NYC a much more safer and more livable city then it had previously been, we'll likely see the return of the problems that preceded those policies. Much of the population of NYC either wasn't around when those problems last manifested themselves, or have forgotten. They're much more fixated on the perceived negative effects of those policies, so they supported Bla. However when the problems come back, and these people start getting impacted, they'll be screaming for Giuliani (or a successor with a similar attitude), to return.
We saw all this in the late 80's. Everyone was euphoric when Dinkins was elected. They were so happy to have a black mayor, to show how progressive the city was. Then he promptly ran it in the ground, and let crime get out of control (with the murder rate peaking at over 2,600 murders per year.) When it came to for the next election, no one wanted to have anything to do with him, and Giuliani was elected. If history repeats itself, history will repeat itself. Except for skin color, I see lots of Dinkins in Bla.
Crime actually declined under Dinkins. It rose his first year in office (which was a continuation of a long upward trend), but declined in 1991, 1992 and 1993. Despite all the naysayers about De Blasio's approach to crime, being too soft, etc, crime is continuing to decline in NYC.
I really believe that the cost of living have driven out many of those bad elements that were behind those earlier crime-filled decades. Those people are not coming back, so I very much doubt the city will revert back to those days again.
Crime may go up and down but it is highly unlikely to reach those epic levels again.
I really believe that the cost of living have driven out many of those bad elements that were behind those earlier crime-filled decades. Those people are not coming back, so I very much doubt the city will revert back to those days again.
Crime may go up and down but it is highly unlikely to reach those epic levels again.
True. The high cost of living has helped get rid of many of those bad elements, and continued gentrification and cuts in certain programs continues to displace this population.
A friend (white, not native to NYC but moved) whose a registered Republican was puzzled why Republican campaign mailing kept emphasizing "law and order" and "tough on crime" issues. Weren't issues that were a big priority to him.
It was a mistake and it wasn't. The GOP couldn't win that election, but that's still going to be the issue that brings NYC back to a Republican mayor. Crime and taxes are the only weapons they have in a city with an 8/1 Democratic-to-Republican voter ratio. Why else did we have 20 years of GOP-endorsed mayors?
When the crime rate goes up - and it inevitably will - bring in a Republican who says he'll make cigarettes cheaper, fight to lower the tolls, and make sure your street is safer, and he'll be a lot more successful than Lhota was. Not a Bloomberg type who wants to ban salt in restaurants and take away your big gulp, but a Republican who is a social liberal who says it's none of my business what you drink, eat, or smoke, and says live and let live.
Koch was also running for his fourth term. He had his run, but I think people were just sick of him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by belltolls
Dinkins won against the incumbent Ed Koch. Koch lost because he was embroiled in scandals and his indifference towards race relations in the city. Crime was still high then.
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