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It is hard not to see a bubble in the current NYC RE market; however, I begin to realize that the bubble here may be made of titanium which requires some extraordinary forces to burst it. All other conventional market forces might make a dent here and there but won't do much else to the bubble. For me it is better to miss instead of rushing into unknown risks.
on the brink of total financial collapse around the world in 2008 we sold two of our apartments in 200 cental park south for a mere 10% less than the all time high
on the brink of total financial collapse around the world in 2008 we sold two of our apartments in 200 cental park south for a mere 10% less than the all time high
I heard that there was some intensive FED rescuing efforts devoted to keep NYC overall above water. Did that help save NYC RE from collapsing?
in 30 years i lived through 3 bubbles out of the 800 that we were told we were in .
Not sure about the first bubble you referred to. As far as I know, the dot.com bubble hardly affected RE market; then the subprime/housing bubble had an atomic level of impact on the entire nation. I don't think that this country has quite recovered from damages done by the subprime crisis; its financial system remains quite fragile to a large extent especially considering that the FED now has very limited tools or resources to turn to in case another crisis hits. That is why the ongoing CHINA crisis stirred up so much fear in the US and Europe today while everyone is still trying to recover and rebuild; whereas 10 years ago the western countries could care less about what was going on in China. For those like you who have been in the RE market before the recent run, you have nice gains to help buffer the increased risks ahead, but I will stay put in terms of investing until China has settled.
It is hard not to see a bubble in the current NYC RE market; however, I begin to realize that the bubble here may be made of titanium which requires some extraordinary forces to burst it. All other conventional market forces might make a dent here and there but won't do much else to the bubble. For me it is better to miss instead of rushing into unknown risks.
If there are any bubbles in the NYC real estate market right now they are only in certain hot neighborhoods.
In the vast majority of neighborhoods in NYC, prices have only very recently recovered to the pre 2008 levels….and just barely. There are still many places in NYC where prices are still a little below the 2008 pre crash levels.
When a lot of the city has had almost no price movement in 8 years you can hardly say there is a bubble.
Rents are another issue entirely. Those have have gone up by at least 50% in almost every nook and cranny of the city.
Not sure about the first bubble you referred to. As far as I know, the dot.com bubble hardly affected RE market; then the subprime/housing bubble had an atomic level of impact on the entire nation. I don't think that this country has quite recovered from damages done by the subprime crisis; its financial system remains quite fragile to a large extent especially considering that the FED now has very limited tools or resources to turn to in case another crisis hits. That is why the ongoing CHINA crisis stirred up so much fear in the US and Europe today while everyone is still trying to recover and rebuild; whereas 10 years ago the western countries could care less about what was going on in China. For those like you who have been in the RE market before the recent run, you have nice gains to help buffer the increased risks ahead, but I will stay put in terms of investing until China has settled.
once things settle is the time to sell , not buy .
remember buying is best when it looks like the next collapse is around the corner . the smallest gains are when worry's are reduced and corporate profits are highest . in fact the biggest drops happen just as things look pretty darn good and we hit new highs .
markets run on fear , greed and perception , not the here and now .
interesting enough :in the book a random walk down wall street 548 nyse issues were tracked and analyed over 5 year periods and the results were the performance had no relationship between the technical and fundemental signals and the actual stock performance ..
ned davis research took another look at the relationship and going as far back as 1927 they found when profits rose more than
20% the s&p returned a mere 1.3% in gains
10 to 20% saw 5.8% in gains
(-10% to + 10% in profits saw a 9.3% jump in gains
(-10%) to (-25%) drop in profits saw 28.6% gains
(-25%) and lower saw a -28% drop in share price.
no one can effectively deal with this short term no matter what they are using.
trying to time buys and sells is an exercise in futility long term. as you see the biggest gains come out of the bleakest of times just when you least expected
Not sure about the first bubble you referred to. As far as I know, the dot.com bubble hardly affected RE market; then the subprime/housing bubble had an atomic level of impact on the entire nation. I don't think that this country has quite recovered from damages done by the subprime crisis; its financial system remains quite fragile to a large extent especially considering that the FED now has very limited tools or resources to turn to in case another crisis hits. That is why the ongoing CHINA crisis stirred up so much fear in the US and Europe today while everyone is still trying to recover and rebuild; whereas 10 years ago the western countries could care less about what was going on in China. For those like you who have been in the RE market before the recent run, you have nice gains to help buffer the increased risks ahead, but I will stay put in terms of investing until China has settled.
Be prepared to wait a very long time. I think China is in for an at least 10 year economic stagnation at best.There may be depression and a revolution before it's all over. Much of the rest of the world will move on without it, much as it did without Japan which was also thought to be of utmost importance and has now been dead in the water for almost 2 decades with little to no affect on others. Wouldn't base my investing in anything on China.
It was thought that Japan owned us too and we would crumble with them until it didn't happen.
If you want to both keep renting and stashing your nest egg under your mattress for the next 10 years or so you will probably be making a big mistake but good luck to you.The stock market will probably have at least doubled by then and interest rates on your mortgage could well be above 10% on a place that could cost double what it does today.
yep , i agree . the gains you give up waiting for some event that may never happen can end up costing you dearly .
i got to conservative after 2008 for a while and waiting for the other shoe to drop was very costly .
we all see the same things on the horizon like china being an issue . when that happens usually some event not even on the radar enters the picture and changes the course from the obvious . .
Be prepared to wait a very long time. I think China is in for an at least 10 year economic stagnation at best.There may be depression and a revolution before it's all over. Much of the rest of the world will move on without it, much as it did without Japan which was also thought to be of utmost importance and has now been dead in the water for almost 2 decades with little to no affect on others. Wouldn't base my investing in anything on China.
It was thought that Japan owned us too and we would crumble with them until it didn't happen.
Largely true, but a pre crisis uncertainty tends to hurt the market a lot more than the severity of the crisis itself or by the time when the crisis fully unfolds, mainly due to anxiety and overreaction the usual psychological effects. IMO, the uncertainty associated with the ongoing China crisis is not much related to its own economic activity and outlook, but about how it will deal with its trillion dollars of the US securities when it gets desperate. Although you won't hear much news coverage on this but I bet it is one of the key issues keeping financial leaders awake at night. Also, China differs from Japan in internatipnal politics as well. That adds another levwl of uncertainty when things go wrong there.
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