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The Trump administration is going to make massive cuts in social services, education, healthcare, and anything else that gets federal funds. This will lead to layoffs and reduced economic activity in NYS and NYC.
Rents are already falling in NYC. This is the death of gentrification, as why would anyone move into ghettoes like the Bronx or Central Brooklyn when they can get better prices in much better neighborhoods.
Your logic is very crazy. One minute you and a few others tirade gentrification and how New York is done and the next it's the opposite.
People want to move into the ghetto because the rents are cheap and it's fun and exciting exploring places they've never been. At least for the ones who aren't scared and given the creeps by Latinos and black people.
Since when does government spending drive gentrification. Gentrification is driven by the profitability of the private corporations that operate in NYC, but derive business from all over the world. Trumps policies, if anything, will aid those companies.
As far as falling rents, that's only at the high end, and only because of overdevelopment. The developers will lay off on new developments for a year or two, and the new construction will get absorbed. By then, the cuts may have the effect of squeezing out the low income residents who depend on them, creating fallow ground for the next wave of development.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NyWriterdude
The Trump administration is going to make massive cuts in social services, education, healthcare, and anything else that gets federal funds. This will lead to layoffs and reduced economic activity in NYS and NYC.
Rents are already falling in NYC. This is the death of gentrification, as why would anyone move into ghettoes like the Bronx or Central Brooklyn when they can get better prices in much better neighborhoods.
Since when does government spending drive gentrification. Gentrification is driven by the profitability of the private corporations that operate in NYC, but derive business from all over the world. Trumps policies, if anything, will aid those companies.
As far as falling rents, that's only at the high end, and only because of overdevelopment. The developers will lay off on new developments for a year or two, and the new construction will get absorbed. By then, the cuts may have the effect of squeezing out the low income residents who depend on them, creating fallow ground for the next wave of development.
This is the key point. People love talking about rents falling, but that's generally something like "an 8 figure apartment is now a high 7 figure apartment, meanwhile, your studio is still 2200$". Even if smaller apartments lower, they're not lowering nearly enough to be in a reasonable range
Your logic is very crazy. One minute you and a few others tirade gentrification and how New York is done and the next it's the opposite.
People want to move into the ghetto because the rents are cheap and it's fun and exciting exploring places they've never been. At least for the ones who aren't scared and given the creeps by Latinos and black people.
They move into the ghetto really only when they can't afford better places. And please, a substantially large percentage of white people are scared and given the creeps by Latinos and Blacks.
Since when does government spending drive gentrification. Gentrification is driven by the profitability of the private corporations that operate in NYC, but derive business from all over the world. Trumps policies, if anything, will aid those companies.
As far as falling rents, that's only at the high end, and only because of overdevelopment. The developers will lay off on new developments for a year or two, and the new construction will get absorbed. By then, the cuts may have the effect of squeezing out the low income residents who depend on them, creating fallow ground for the next wave of development.
Government tax credits certainly pushed corporations into developing inner cities.
But with reduced employment in the city via huge budget cuts, there's reduced ability to pay for apartments. At a time when the market is softening.
I'm not saying this is the end of NYC, but this is the end of gentrification claims for years.
In 2006 there was talk of gentrifying Jamaica and East New York . Neighborhoods that no one wants to live with. Everytime people get that desperate the market PEAKS and collapses, and said gentrification NEVER happens.
Put it like this, the Bronx, ENY, Brownsville, and Jamaica will not even become working class neighborhoods any time soon.
What can hurt gentrification in NYC, but in other four major cities that has gone under transformation like SF, DC and Boston. If interest rates go up, this will hurt those looking to buy property, and even hurt will also hurt foreign investment. The US, and big cities like SF and NYC depend heavily on foreign investment. Places like NYC attract plenty of wealthy from all over the world, and the reason why is because low interest rates by the Feds. If Feds increase rates, gentrification will slowly dwindle.
The next thing is rebuilding middle America. Both Bernie Sanders, and Trump supporters were from Middle America. Middle America does not have a robust amount of professional jobs as well as cultural allure except for major city of Chicago. I was in a work group last year. Out of 7 people. Only two were native New Yorkers. The rest were from middle America with good paying jobs here in NYC. I recently befriended two guys from Middle America. As well as briefly dating a woman from Minnesota. If the populism can fix middle America, this means less and less young people will reconsider moving to big coastal liberal cities in mass. This is good because one, job competition in NYC will decrease, also poverty will also decline, rents will also drop. Instead of Jazmin working in Starbucks, she will be able to get a job at a firm as an assistant secretary and be able to support her two kids as a single mom. Compared to Megan who did the same previous job, lived with roomates and had trouble paying back college tuition fees. Factory jobs also need professional jobs to support industrial base, such as payroll, marketing, sales, ads and etc. If Trump brings back factories, except professional jobs to rise up along industrial jobs in Middle America. If this happens, less and less folks will move to NYC in the future.
Gentrification benefited greatly in the past 30 years on the neoliberal regimes of Raegan, Clinton, Bushes, and Obama. With the defeat of Hillary Clinton, also marks the end of neoliberal economic system and nuances associated such as gentrification. America right now is entering the populist age regardless of left or right. Trump and Bernie supporters are populists. Even here in the south Bronx, plenty of warehouses, empty spaces and homes were bought between election day and Trump inauguration because of fear of rising interest rates and fear of Trump.
Even though I don't agree with Trump. I respect what he does and I praise him. I hope he can help rebuild America, and help alleviate job pressure here in NYC for many folks here. I just hope Trump does not get impeached. If he does, we will get Mike Pence who is part of the political and economic establishment.
Last edited by Bronxguyanese; 03-10-2017 at 07:17 PM..
Government tax credits certainly pushed corporations into developing inner cities.
But with reduced employment in the city via huge budget cuts, there's reduced ability to pay for apartments. At a time when the market is softening.
I'm not saying this is the end of NYC, but this is the end of gentrification claims for years.
In 2006 there was talk of gentrifying Jamaica and East New York . Neighborhoods that no one wants to live with. Everytime people get that desperate the market PEAKS and collapses, and said gentrification NEVER happens.
Put it like this, the Bronx, ENY, Brownsville, and Jamaica will not even become working class neighborhoods any time soon.
Are you assuming NYC won't have continual population increase, rents aren't exorbitantly high and that North Brooklyn and DUMBO won't have continued growth in office presence?
Sounds like OP thinks the homeless problem is a result of loss of government jobs due to recent Trump budget cuts. What a moron.
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There are PLENTY great neighborhoods in the Bronx.
