Hurricane Jose Possible Direct Hit on New York City in 10 Days (Lee: train, vacation)

[Mr. Ryu]

With Chemtrails, HAARP doesn't seem to far fetched. Imagine all the $$$ that people are going to donate for Harvey and Irma. (eg: Red Cross will keep 80% and give 20% to the victims.)

[Trixie216]

Originally Posted by Principle Lewis

No way Trump would let Jose into the US.

Oh my! That was the best comment.

I think it's too soon to tell where a hurricane will be 10 days ahead of time but you never know.

[Merrily Gather]

Hmm.. European models say today the two likely paths of Jose are:

A. Stay along the East Coast heading NE but not making landfall.

B. Traveling in a pretzel path but eventually out to sea and affecting the European weather patterns.

They also say it's still too early to tell but we'll know all within 10 days.

[BBMW]

Slightly possible but unlikely

[BlakeJones]

Originally Posted by BBMW

Slightly possible but unlikely

If it does I imagine it would be a weak tropical storm by the time it gets here. Could cause some flooding but hopefully wouldn't combine with a big regional storm like happened with superstorm Sandy

[BBMW]

For a hurricane to make a big impact on NYC, it would have to stay over water until it hit close NYC directly, with the eye coming ashore in NJ, just south of NYC. That means it has to take a very non-standard trajectory. Usually the jet stream grabs storms as the get to this latitude, and pushes them out into the Atlantic. The global level meteorological conditions have to be perfect for this not to happen. That's what happened with Sandy. I could happen again, but it's a long shot.

[Mr. Ryu]

Jose is now a Cat 1 or 2. It lost power as it was a 4. We might get rain but that is about it.

[Kefir King]

Blake,


Whose model is that?
Trouble with these various models is they wind up looking like a plate of spaghetti. No place is safe from at least ONE of them.
Historically, the "European model" seems to have been most predictive: I mean who could have correctly predicted Sandy's abrupt turn into New Jersey like the EM did.


But nobody got Irma going up the West Coast of Florida.


But just in case, I'll fill my bathtub with water next weekend.

[Mr. Ryu]

Originally Posted by Kefir King

Blake,


Whose model is that?
Trouble with these various models is they wind up looking like a plate of spaghetti. No place is safe from at least ONE of them.
Historically, the "European model" seems to have been most predictive: I mean who could have correctly predicted Sandy's abrupt turn into New Jersey like the EM did.


But nobody got Irma going up the West Coast of Florida.


But just in case, I'll fill my bathtub with water next weekend.

Let's have a bubble bath together!

[BlakeJones]

Originally Posted by Kefir King

Blake,


Whose model is that?

It's one run of the GFS, one of the major forecasting models (in addition to NAM, Euro, Canadian, etc..)